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Whoever chiselled out, shaped planted and nurtured that Cheltenham hill a century or more ago, he made it to order for Quito De La Roque: now that’s magic!
Fantastic post!
I love Quito, but fear he may be a bit slow. Also last year’s staying novices haven’t been performing well, which does cast some doubt on the value of the form
I love Quito, but fear he may be a bit slow. Also last year’s staying novices haven’t been performing well, which does cast some doubt on the value of the form
He was freely available at 10/1 for last year’s four miler and I wondered if he would be too slow for that. The form he has in beating Sarando on good ground isn’t good enough – admitedly on a track that wouldn’t have suited – and last time the race collapsed in front of him. I would like to see him come over to Cheltenham for the trial at the end of January. Unless it is actually soft ground in March on all known evidence he has to improve significantly to play a leading role even in a year when obvious contenders are thin on the ground.
Superman, I suggest you watch any of Kauto or Denman’s Gold Cup victories and then compare them to the manner in which Long Run won the Gold Cup. The only time Long Run ever got in front was after Kauto got tired and then scooted up the hill. It was basically a carbon copy of the race at Haydock, except that’s run over 2 1/2f shorter so Kauto didn’t get a chance to get tired. Go back and watch the race again if you don’t believe me. Even off the bridle before Imperial Commander was I seem to recall.
And as the Racing Post in-running comment states, he blundered twice.
I don’t think you could say that this year’s Gold Cup was as strong as Imperial Commander’s or Denman’s races. In fact you’d have to go back to 2007 to find a Gold Cup as bad as this year’s in my opinion. Whether Long Run is 6 or not is irrelevant. Everybody was jumping around saying that Master Minded was the first 5yo to win the Queen Mother until somebody actually did some research and found that he was the first 5yo in history to run in the race.
How many 6yos have run in the race since Mill House? I’d be interested to find out, and I’d be shocked if I needed both hands to count them all.
I was just watching some replays of recent Cheltenham Festival Championship races & it’s really extraordinary how so many short-priced favourites were beaten. Master Minded twice at 2/1 or less, Baracouda the same, Kauto Star 3 times.
Trying to oppose a 11/4 shot at the beginning of December for a race at the Festival is exactly the right thing to do, especially one who’s never truly looked like a superstar away from Kempton. Indeed like I said, for a horse who’s been off the bridle so far from home in his previous 2 starts, the last thing I’d want to do is back him.
Off the bridle today after the 13th fence ffs. Makes a mistake at practically every single fence. Run him in the 2013 National, a 4+ miler.
I know which one of the front two in the market I’d want to be on after today…
Kauto has always looked more vulnerable in a Gold Cup to me….Kempton and the King George has been his race down the years and he’s slaughtered good horses in years gone by. Long Run though, despite numerous jumping errors again and being off the bridle a mile+ from home was still closing with every stride as the finish line approached for KS and I reckon finished close enough to suggest he has a cracking chance of retaining his Gold Cup crown.
Long Run is always going to make a few mistakes but his engine certainly more suited to the track and trip of the Gold Cup in my opinion, and he will take all the beating for me come March and is still a very worthy favourite.
Superman, I suggest you watch any of Kauto or Denman’s Gold Cup victories and then compare them to the manner in which Long Run won the Gold Cup. The only time Long Run ever got in front was after Kauto got tired and then scooted up the hill. It was basically a carbon copy of the race at Haydock, except that’s run over 2 1/2f shorter so Kauto didn’t get a chance to get tired. Go back and watch the race again if you don’t believe me. Even off the bridle before Imperial Commander was I seem to recall.
And as the Racing Post in-running comment states, he blundered twice.
I don’t think you could say that this year’s Gold Cup was as strong as Imperial Commander’s or Denman’s races. In fact you’d have to go back to 2007 to find a Gold Cup as bad as this year’s in my opinion. Whether Long Run is 6 or not is irrelevant. Everybody was jumping around saying that Master Minded was the first 5yo to win the Queen Mother until somebody actually did some research and found that he was the first 5yo in history to run in the race.
How many 6yos have run in the race since Mill House? I’d be interested to find out, and I’d be shocked if I needed both hands to count them all.
I was just watching some replays of recent Cheltenham Festival Championship races & it’s really extraordinary how so many short-priced favourites were beaten. Master Minded twice at 2/1 or less, Baracouda the same, Kauto Star 3 times.
Trying to oppose a 11/4 shot at the beginning of December for a race at the Festival is exactly the right thing to do, especially one who’s never truly looked like a superstar away from Kempton. Indeed like I said, for a horse who’s been off the bridle so far from home in his previous 2 starts, the last thing I’d want to do is back him.
Off the bridle today after the 13th fence ffs. Makes a mistake at practically every single fence. Run him in the 2013 National, a 4+ miler
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I reserve the right to stick to my opinion on how good long run will be if he loses the nose band !….maybe i’m clutching at straws as every horses is different, but it didn’t do Kauto any harm getting rid of it. Youd have to wonder why it’s still wearing it given how many jumping errors he makes. If a nose band is important to keep the horses mouth shut, then why didn’t Kauto all of a sudden need it ?
Without running today, I think What A Friend’s credentials for the Gold Cup may have become stronger. He could outstay Kauto Star, outjump Long Run and really be the ‘forgotten horse’ now.
Hi all
I think Captain Chris has more than 4% (3% plus value element) chance of winning (Ginge – taking your principle forward here!!)
It is currently showing on Oddschecker as 33/1 with LAdbrokes (Biggest price across all bookmakers) and also has the added filip of nrnb!!
Although I don’t have abetfair account surely this is a great back to lay opportunity?
Will be popping into town now to have a small investment e/w on it to add to my 50/1 Burton Port and 50/1 Somersby
yorkiedips
I’ve not yet seen the Lexus but just looking at the bare result I’d say that it’s not a forlorn hope that Rubi Light could win the Gold Cup. Wouldn’t say that stamina was his downfall given he beat the slowest 3-miler in the world (QDLR).
He’s had 2 runs on heavy ground this year, taking a crashing fall in the first one and perhaps just needs a bit more time between his races. No surprise to see them try for the Irish Hennessy next time out where he’d probably take on Synchronised again.
Lexus was informative,if disappointing, in that we now know Quito and Rubi aren’t contenders, and that Synchronised could be a live outsider. The proximity of Roberto Goldblack puts the form in perspective
Now the field looks fairly mediocre, surely Grands Crus should enter. He ran faster than Kauto at Kempton so surely it’s worth a shot.
It appears from today’s Post the odds are in favour of going for the Gold Cup. The reasoning appears to be correct as well. Clearly it isn’t ideal for him to be hitting the front five/six fences out and the Gold Cup field will in all likelihood toe him along at a faster pace for longer than the RSA. There is a silly piece of analysis along the lines of Bobs Worth not losing any ground to him in the closing stages at Kempton – that may be true but it might have something to do with him hitting the front much sooner than in an ideal world. I expect Bobs Worth to still play a significant role in the RSA if he can brush up his jumping but at Kempton the grey was a class above.
grands crus oozes class.
given the owner now reckons that he’s 70-30 more likely to line up in the gold cup than the rsa, he now becomes the one to beat in my eyes.
I wouldn’t be put off by the fact he’s a novice at all. master minded probably had a similar level of experience over fences when he scooted up in the queen mum a few years back.
given that for all kauto has looked back to his best this year, he will be 12 by the time of next years gold cup and by that token should hardly be invulnerable, and I can’t have long run at all.
grands crus chips all in
Has a novice ever won the Gold Cup? Do they even run very often (I can think of Iris Gift running as some kind of crazy plan B when he was struggling with jumping). It’s one thing a classy novice knocking over other novices, it’s quite another to go straight up against the best staying chasers in the top race. KS is getting on a bit, and Cheltenham’s probably not his best track, but he still looks in pretty good form. Long Run’s not far behind and looks like the Gold Cup’ll be his best race
Grand Cru’s not my horse, but it hardly sounds like the percentage call.
As I said earlier the percentage call is the Gold Cup will suit him better. They don’t want him pulling his way to the front and then being faced with the possibility of something just grinding him down.
As to his relative merit compared to Long Run and Kauto Star we just don’t know. I suspect the stronger the race the better he will look but we shall hopefully get a better idea in January.
Thanks JJM
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