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Wouldn’t be good enough would he? Nicky did say he was progressing but is on no hurry to bring him back. Horses that don’t run before Xmas don’t win Gold Cups as a norm.
Are there many people who don’t think Long Run could get 4 miles? The thought of him being off the bridle well over a mile from home in the Gold Cup before scooting clear after the last was very prominent in my mind pre-Betfair and I wasn’t surprised at all to see him off the bridle halfway round then.
Looking back now at the Gold Cup and at the performances that were subsequently put in last season, Long Run won a truly horrible renewal. Kauto didn’t put in a single good performance last season (point to the Gold Cup if you wish, but I’ll then point to What A Friend), while you’d struggle to say Denman put in a really good run in either the Hennessy or Aintree Bowl.
As Steeplechasing said, Long Run made a couple of fairly big mistakes in the Gold Cup and it was the first time in 3 starts at Cheltenham that he was even making it into the top 2, let alone winning. Softer ground & a couple of improving, new contenders and I don’t know if we’ll have the same opinion of Long Run that we had in March and April.
Quito de la Roque I think as some people have already said is a stamina horse and in a couple of years will be a Grand National contender.
Weird Al, Diamond Harry, Denman, Kauto, Time For Rupert, they’re just not me. Exposed as not good enough or just too old.
I’m waiting for Captain Chris to be stepped up in trip as I’m expecting this horse to be dynamite, although as Hobbs said in yesterday’s RP, it’s very frustrating him having an infection as it’s come exactly at the wrong time of the season. I’d have thought him running in the King George would be doubtful, but perhaps the Aon or Argento will be where we see him over 3 miles. 16/1 though, hmmm.
Weird Al, Diamond Harry, Denman, Kauto, Time For Rupert, they’re just not me. Exposed as not good enough or just too old.
I’m waiting for Captain Chris to be stepped up in trip as I’m expecting this horse to be dynamite, although as Hobbs said in yesterday’s RP, it’s very frustrating him having an infection as it’s come exactly at the wrong time of the season. I’d have thought him running in the King George would be doubtful, but perhaps the Aon or Argento will be where we see him over 3 miles. 16/1 though, hmmm.
Mc Cain has either the Gold Cup or an Aintree run in mind for weird Al so I’d hold all bets on him.
I spent a pleasant hour last night going through all of Captain Chris’s races on video He has a reasonable chance of staying the Gold Cup trip although he seems not to get on too well with his jock.
He looks like a horse who relies a lot on his jockey to count him in and ask him up at fences and R Johnson does it at some but not at others – last time’s unseat was a typical example.
That’s the only discouraging note for me though as the horse gains experience, he might learn to trust himself more. I think he certainly has the talent to win what looks like being a poorish Gold Cup aside from Long Run whose jumping doubts will always make him one to avoid at the price.
Where do you start. If Kauto or Denman win, they are superstars. If Long run wins, then it’s a weak renewal. We will just forget the fact that Long Run is the first 6y/o to win it since Millhouse, or that it was no weaker a renewal than we’ve had in recent years. If Kauto beats Madison Du Berlais and Barber Shop to a King George, he is a superstar. If Long Run beats Kauto Star to a King George, it was obviously because Kauto is regressing. Then there’s the contradiction, if these people are queing up to pick fault with Long Run, then surely that takes the shine off Katous Betfair win? …yeah i thought not ! The fact is if we look back at any race we can pick faults. He’s still six and he stays for days. If he jumps he probably will win the KG and Gold Cup. There’s no point unecessarily criticing a horse just because some want to oppose it from a odds perspective.
Superman, I suggest you watch any of Kauto or Denman’s Gold Cup victories and then compare them to the manner in which Long Run won the Gold Cup. The only time Long Run ever got in front was after Kauto got tired and then scooted up the hill. It was basically a carbon copy of the race at Haydock, except that’s run over 2 1/2f shorter so Kauto didn’t get a chance to get tired. Go back and watch the race again if you don’t believe me. Even off the bridle before Imperial Commander was I seem to recall.
And as the Racing Post in-running comment states, he blundered twice.
I don’t think you could say that this year’s Gold Cup was as strong as Imperial Commander’s or Denman’s races. In fact you’d have to go back to 2007 to find a Gold Cup as bad as this year’s in my opinion. Whether Long Run is 6 or not is irrelevant. Everybody was jumping around saying that Master Minded was the first 5yo to win the Queen Mother until somebody actually did some research and found that he was the first 5yo in history to run in the race.
How many 6yos have run in the race since Mill House? I’d be interested to find out, and I’d be shocked if I needed both hands to count them all.
I was just watching some replays of recent Cheltenham Festival Championship races & it’s really extraordinary how so many short-priced favourites were beaten. Master Minded twice at 2/1 or less, Baracouda the same, Kauto Star 3 times.
Trying to oppose a 11/4 shot at the beginning of December for a race at the Festival is exactly the right thing to do, especially one who’s never truly looked like a superstar away from Kempton. Indeed like I said, for a horse who’s been off the bridle so far from home in his previous 2 starts, the last thing I’d want to do is back him.
I count at least 14 smacks of the whip from Waley-Cohen, 6 of those coming after the last.
I don’t think the 6yo stat is irrelevant. Some trainers avoid the RSA because they think a horse might not be ready. For a 6yo to get the race record in the gold cup when he made 2 blunders, ran on ground without preferred cut and had to be given reminders makes it all the more better. I wouldn’t be overly concerned about his jumping as they are not serious errors that stop his momentum in big races. I wonder about that nose band. For me Kauto started to cut out the errors when they got rid of his. I don’t have a problem with people opposing him because of his odds at all. I often go against short pricers. I just don’t think his achievements or potential should be down played because many want to see him get beat for betting purposes. Hopefully come March we will be able to compare kautos GC at 7 against Long runs at 7. I think he’s going to be better this season.
Hi all
In what I think is even more than a transitional year than last year does anyone know the current status of Burton Port after his injury?
Thought I read somewhere come back run scheduled for earky Feb? Can anyone confirm. SJ stand out 50/1 so had a small investment each way in a year where currently nothing stands out to me outside of Long run who I thik is a fair though not outstanding price at 11/4
yorkiedips
Hi all
In what I think is even more than a transitional year than last year does anyone know the current status of Burton Port after his injury?
Thought I read somewhere come back run scheduled for earky Feb? Can anyone confirm. SJ stand out 50/1 so had a small investment each way in a year where currently nothing stands out to me outside of Long run who I thik is a fair though not outstanding price at 11/4
yorkiedips
Hemmings’ racing manager, Mick Meagher, said: "There’s no race in mind for his comeback, he’s just back in training.
"It’ll be the new year before he runs, probably even February."
I also read in another article somewhere that he could be aimed at the national.
It’s such a shame Weapons Amnesty is injured again.
He would be a horse of interest in a Gold Cup.
It’s been said elsewhere in this forum, but the 2012 Gold Cup really does look a drab affair. But…If Long Run wins he’ll get eulogies from all and sundry, Henderson will be put up for a knighthood and comparisons with Best Mate and Arkle (Long Run not Nicky) will assault our ears for the ensuing 12 months. But…again! We can still dream of Jessies (Dream) pounding up the hill and spare us the aforesaid bilge.
Good to see a positive bulletin from Gordon Elliott on Jessies Dream. If he runs I’d have him as a place banker and one of the main dangers to Quito De La Roque.
Good to see a positive bulletin from Gordon Elliott on Jessies Dream. If he runs I’d have him as a place banker and one of the main dangers to Quito De La Roque.
Interesting you say that Tommy as i see
Magnanimity
as a ‘Dark horse’ for The Gold Cup and he too is a Gigginstown horse like Quito,Jessies Dream is closely matched on form with him.
Whoever chiselled out, shaped planted and nurtured that Cheltenham hill a century or more ago, he made it to order for Quito De La Roque: now that’s magic!
Good to see a positive bulletin from Gordon Elliott on Jessies Dream. If he runs I’d have him as a place banker and one of the main dangers to Quito De La Roque.
Interesting you say that Tommy as i see
Magnanimity
as a ‘Dark horse’ for The Gold Cup and he too is a Gigginstown horse like Quito,Jessies Dream is closely matched on form with him.
I was talking to Hughes about 3 weeks ago and he said the horse got injured in the RSA and didnt fully recover and he said hell try get him back for the Lexus,he said hes a dark horse and he thinks hes a proper grade1 horse.Im on ew for the Gold Cup
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