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Thanks for the Grands Crus tip Gord, but I’ve already backed him for the King George at 8/1. In part due to a very encouraging Feltham time. But if you think Grands Crus was a better racehorse on Boxing Day than both Kauto Star and Long Run, then you’re the one being "ridiculous" Gord. The clock DOES lie. The over all time has a great deal to do with early fractions. Early pace in the King George being significantly slower than the Feltham.
Ginge,Why is the clock lieing when it clearly shows that ,Grand Crus’ performance was exceptional for a Novice and that both ‘Long Run’ and ‘Kauto Star’ were comparitively slow on the day,Ruby tacticly out witted poor Sam in the King George, those tactics would never have been employed with the Grey tanking along from the front,’Long run’ would not have beaten ‘Grand Crus’ and ‘Kauto’ would have known about it for sure! You have to go back to an 8yo ‘Kauto Star’ beating the legend (Albertas Run) to even suggest he would have beaten the Grey and thats accomodating the 3lb allowance and incredibly fast ground.No I’m afraid
Grand Crus
would have beaten both in my opinion,any wonder why the Pipes seriously contemplated going for the Gold Cup! We’ll see when ‘Long Run’ and ‘Grand Crus’ clash in this years King George,I’ll go 1/2 the Grey goes off fav and beats him.The Gold Cup however is a completely different story,I’m 100% convinced the Grey wont get the trip around Cheltenham.
Grands Crus’s Feltham was an "exceptional" performance "for a novice" as early in the season as December. And Kauto Star and Long Run’s time was "comaritively slow". I don’t believe Ruby "out witted Sam", rather Kauto Star is (or was at that point) a better horse than Long Run.
Have you also allowed for Grands Crus and co carrying 3 lbs less than Kauto Star?
Have you allowed for early fractions not being as fast in the King George? A slightly slower early pace meant the over all time was slower. Even allowing for the final stages being run faster than the Feltham.
Kauto Star beat Long Run by 1 1/4 lengths, with 17 lengths back to Captain Chris. Grands Crus beat Silviniaco Conti by 2 1/4 lengths. So if you believe Grands Crus’s performance better than Kauto Star, then where does Silviniaco Conti fit in? Is he better than Kauto Star and Long Run too? Or is he only slightly inferior to those two top class chasers?
Grands Crus should be a better racehorse next year, that’s why he’s rated with a "p" in Timeform. Age will probably be catching up with Kauto Star and Long Run has to get back to the King George form. Otherwise there’s a good chance Grands Crus will be the better racehorse next year. However, there is no way GC can be rated better than KS and LR on this season’s form.
I agree, I wouldn’t back Grands Crus for Chaeltenham, some doubts whether he’ll go for the Gold Cup. Would think they’d seriously consider the Ryanair. Or even, if Big Buck’s disappoints, the World Hurdle.
Value Is EverythingGrands Crus’s Feltham was an "exceptional" performance "for a novice" as early in the season as December. And Kauto Star and Long Run’s time was "comaritively slow". I don’t believe Ruby "out witted Sam", rather Kauto Star is (or was at that point) a better horse than Long Run.
Have you also allowed for Grands Crus and co carrying 3 lbs less than Kauto Star?
Have you allowed for early fractions not being as fast in the King George? A slightly slower early pace meant the over all time was slower. Even allowing for the final stages being run faster than the Feltham.
Kauto Star beat Long Run by 1 1/4 lengths, with 17 lengths back to Captain Chris. Grands Crus beat Silviniaco Conti by 2 1/4 lengths. So if you believe Grands Crus’s performance better than Kauto Star, then where does Silviniaco Conti fit in? Is he better than Kauto Star and Long Run too? Or is he only slightly inferior to those two top class chasers?
Grands Crus should be a better racehorse next year, that’s why he’s rated with a "p" in Timeform. Age will probably be catching up with Kauto Star and Long Run has to get back to the King George form. Otherwise there’s a good chance Grands Crus will be the better racehorse next year. However, there is no way GC can be rated better than KS and LR on this season’s form.
I agree, I wouldn’t back Grands Crus for Chaeltenham, some doubts whether he’ll go for the Gold Cup. Would think they’d seriously consider the Ryanair. Or even, if Big Buck’s disappoints, the World Hurdle.For one who has backed
Grand Crus
Ante-Post for the King George,you dont half come across as negative Ginge!
Confidence is King my friend! He’ll go off a short priced fav on the day,Why?……..His Feltham run!Have you allowed for early fractions not being as fast in the King George? A slightly slower early pace meant the over all time was slower. Even allowing for the final stages being run faster than the Feltham.
Didn’t say anything about Kauto Star’s previous King Georges Gord. It’s the early pace of
this
season’s King George I’m talking about.
I ignored Bob’s Worth because it is blindingly obvious he’s better going left handed / at Cheltenham. Also had a breathing oporation since Boxing Day.
Value Is EverythingFor one who has backed
Grand Crus
Ante-Post for the King George,you dont half come across as negative Ginge!
Confidence is King my friend! He’ll go off a short priced fav on the day,Why?……..His Feltham run!I have NOT backed Grands Crus because he has the best form. Neither do I believe he’ll win…
I’ve backed Grands Crus Gord, because I believe he’s
good value
to win.
No point in being over confident and no point in having rose coloured specs about the form.
Value Is EverythingHave you allowed for early fractions not being as fast in the King George? A slightly slower early pace meant the over all time was slower. Even allowing for the final stages being run faster than the Feltham.
Didn’t say anything about Kauto Star’s previous King Georges Gord. It’s the early pace of
this
season’s King George I’m talking about.
I ignored Bob’s Worth because it is blindingly obvious he’s better going left handed / at Cheltenham. Also had a breathing oporation since Boxing Day.
The reason I mention All ‘Kautos’ Kempton runs Ginge is to gauge something against,its to confirm to myself that
Grand Crus
performance wasn’t just visually impressive but also mechanically top draw hence the Timings. The markets always told us
Bobs worth
was being trained with one race in mind but he still ran creditably in the Feltham and thats why I also suggest keeping an eye on ‘Silviano Conti’,33/1 for the King George is a solid place investment too imo. You know how I harp on every year about the ‘Supreme nov Hrdle’ being a future Goldmine for winners as is this years incidentally,I believe the same about the Feltham like I said at the time,’Bobs Worth’ confirms it already!
For one who has backed
Grand Crus
Ante-Post for the King George,you dont half come across as negative Ginge!
Confidence is King my friend! He’ll go off a short priced fav on the day,Why?……..His Feltham run!I have NOT backed Grands Crus because he has the best form. Neither do I believe he’ll win…
I’ve backed Grands Crus Gord, because I believe he’s
good value
to win.
No point in being over confident and no point in having rose coloured specs about the form.
Well I’ve heard it all now! Thats a pearler….’I have NOT backed Grand Crus because he has the best form. Neither do I believe he’ll win’…
WHAT? Thats the complete opposite to me then! I have backed Grand Crus e/w (Crucial part of wager and something you fail to realise)but I certainly think he can win because he has one piece of form that I quantify as being better than ‘Long runs’ (who is 11/4 fav by the way) and thats his Feltham victory!
Ginge,When I snaffle prices months in advance I am ‘stealing’ the value but its not the price I’m betting on….Its the bloody horse mate! I didn’t back ‘Synchronised’ at all those double figure prices because he was value,its becauseI THINK HE CAN WIN
You have a strange philosophy at times you do! i can only put it down to having Ginger Hair!!
I think you’re misunderstanding what Ginger is saying KF. Saying he ‘doesn’t believe he will win’ is not saying he ‘doesn’t think he can win’. It is simply that he believes that 8/1 is better than his chance represents. If someone put nine red counters in a bag and one yellow counter in the bag I wouldn’t believe that the yellow counter
would
be drawn out however I would believe it
could
be drawn out and if someone offered me 12/1 on it coming out I would take it.
Ginger. Interesting comment you make on Synchronised being a below average winner of the Gold Cup. I would imagine you are going on Timeform ratings ? Steve Mason in the Racing Post takes the opposite view and says his rating was in keeping with the average rating of Gold Cup winners over the last deacde.
Sorry Ken but when someone quotes they ‘Dont believe he’ll win’ means to me he thinks it will lose! As a Gambler myself I cant/wont allow negativety like that to influence my decisions.Drawing balls out of a bag is pure luck,its as skilful as watching 3 Cherries spinning round a one armed bandit.The King George is a predictable race for assessing potential runners and even at this early stage I suggest that apart from ‘Long Run’ the 11/4fav there wont be many runners.Defineately No ‘Bobs Worth’ ‘First Lieutenant’ ‘Synchronised’ or ‘Kauto Star’ and neither ‘Sprinter Sacre’ nor ‘Sizing Europe’,Possibilities include
‘Last Instalment’ and ‘Sir des Champs’ from Ireland but I doubt they will come.’Finians Rainbow’ could step up but there’s a question mark about the trip so Nicky might just depend on ‘Riverside theatre’ rather than ‘Burton Port (National type).That leaves the horse who has ‘King George’ written all over him…..Grand Crus
,on my reckoning he should be 4/1 2nd fav now! 8/1 is just toooo big imo!
Sorry Ken but when someone quotes they ‘Dont believe he’ll win’ means to me he thinks it will lose! As a Gambler myself I cant/wont allow negativety like that to influence my decisions.
Grand Crus
,on my reckoning he should be 4/1 2nd fav now! 8/1 is just toooo big imo!
What I said was, "Neither do I believe he’ll win".
It’s simple maths Gord.
If I did "believe he’ll win", then that means I believe he has a better than 50% chance of winning. But I don’t.Any punter beliving a horse to have a 49% or less chance, believes the horse
will NOT win
. ie
Has a better chance of losing than winning
.
What is more Gord, you
yourself don’t believe Grands Crus "will win"
. As you’ve said "on my reckoning he should be 4/1". By saying Grands Crus "
should be 4/1
" to be
fair
odds, what you are saying is Grands Crus has a
20%
chance of
winning
and an
80%
chance of
losing
. So you yourself
believe Grands Crus will lose
.
To be value at 8/1 a selection needs only to have a better than 11% chance of winning. I believe Grands Crus has a much better than 11% chance of winning.
Value Is EverythingI have backed Grand Crus e/w (Crucial part of wager and something you fail to realise)
Each to his own and all that Gord.
I don’t see the point in each way betting ante-post, unless betting against a very short / odds on favourite. I did back Grands Crus @ 20/1 each way when second to Big Buck’s in the World Hurdle. And 40/1 each way Smad Place this year.
For every point each way you win when placed @ 8/1:
1 point each way (2 points altogether) @ 8/1 wins (8 ‘/, 4) = 2 + only the place part of your stake 1 = 3 points returned.2 points staked 3 points returned. A return of 4/6 on over all stake. And that’s having to bet 9 months in advance. Chancing losing both win and place parts of the bet if a non-runner (for injury or another reason). All that for what is basically a saver bet.
I myself would much rather:
Increase the win part of the bet by using at least part of the place stake. And/or put saver (or even main (big)) bet/s on other value horses nearer time of race.After all, I had a win bet on Grands Crus at 8/1 for the RSA, which allowed me another smaller (but still a "main bet") on Bob’s Worth at 10/1. Had I backed Grands Crus each way, I’d have lost not only my win bet, but the place part too (4th). And wouldn’t have backed the winner either.
xxx forbid, but what happens if something happens to Big Buck’s before Boxing Day, and David Pipe announces Grands Crus will go back over hurdles?
Value Is EverythingI didn’t back ‘Synchronised’ at all those double figure prices because he was value,its because
I THINK HE CAN WIN
You have a strange philosophy at times you do! i can only put it down to having Ginger Hair!!
But I’ve backed Grands Crus because "I THINK HE
CAN
WIN".
Value Is EverythingGord ( if as a relative newcomer I can call you that
) Ginger is spot on with what he says. The facts are if you think a horse’s correct price is better than evens you think it is more likely to lose this is because if the correct price for a horse is say 6/4 this means it has a 40% chance of winning and therefore a 60% chance of losing. As said there is a big difference between thinking it will win and thinking it can win.The difference between the approach of Ginger and others who think like him to the approach of most punters is, Ginger takes a long term view compared to an individual race view. You say that you won’t let negativity into your betting but neither does Ginger. This is because he is confident that his pricing up of a race is correct.
Ginger. Interesting comment you make on Synchronised being a below average winner of the Gold Cup. I would imagine you are going on Timeform ratings ? Steve Mason in the Racing Post takes the opposite view and says his rating was in keeping with the average rating of Gold Cup winners over the last deacde.
When I made those comments Ken, I hadn’t seen Timeform’s assessment of the race. But knowing how they rated the race beforehand, it’s not difficult to judge roughly how they’d rate it afterwards.
Can’t understand Steve Mason saying that. How does he justify it? Even allowing for Long Run’s win last year being over-rated and Kauto Star never running to his best Kempton form; can’t see any way Synchronised can be rated an average winner.
Value Is EverythingSo we run the Gold Cup again, Long Run gives 13lbs to Synchronise and he’ll beat him or dead heat with him. That is not only inconceivable it’s laughable
I doubt whether Long Run would go clear of any horse again HGM, at least not without ear plugs. But if he were to give weitht in a handicap… Yes, Long Run would stand a good chance (
if at his very best
) to give Synchronised 13 lbs. Although there’d have to be a big doubt Long Run running to that rating on this season’s form.
I note you don’t say why it is "laughable" HGM?
Then again, you always did have blinkers fitted whenever Jonjo had anything to do with it.
You know Ginger I just can’t follow you at all. Nicky Henderson said clearly the reason Long Run was beaten at Kempton wasn’t because he had gone backwards but because Kauto Star was much more like his old self.
The 2 of them pulled miles clear of the rest and had Kauto not turned up everyone would have said it was Long Run’s best performance of his life as he beat Captain Chris 17 lengths.
So winning the King George by 17 lengths would be considered out of form in your book would it?
I think it’s you who has blinkers on or you would know that for all I have the utmost respect for Jonjo, Nicky Henderson has always been my favourite trainer.
Sorry HGM, I thought you’d be familiar with the term "go clear of
any
horse" when used in this context. By "any" I didn’t mean any horse in 3rd (like Cptain Chris), 4th or 5th etc. I meant "any" horse in
second place
. ie It is my belief that Long Run
idles in front unless
he has the aid of
ear plugs
, to block out crowd noise.
If Long Run is in
second place
(behind another runner) he has something to chase, which aids concentration; as it did chasing home Kauto Star. So allowing him to
run to form in second place
. Therefore we agree, Long Run
did
run to form (or close to it) in this season’s King George. As I said in an earlier post. "In hindsight, I doubt whether he (Long Run) improved to win at Cheltenham (Gold Cup). I think it best to rate him on the
two King Georges
. 12 length beating of Riverside Theatre and 1 1/4 lengths defeat by Kauto Star".
And yes, we agree that Kauto Star came back to something like his best to win both Betfair and King George.
My point was that I don’t expect Long Run to
win a race by a wide margin
even against vastly inferior rivals, because of a tendencey to idle. Unless of course, ear plugs are used.
Sorry for the confusion.
Value Is Everything
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