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I hope Kauto Star wins, but won’t be backing him.
My 100% book:
Long Run 7/4
, Kauto Star 9/2,
Weird Al 10/1
, Burton Port 10/1, Synchronised 14/1, Midnight Chase 18/1, What A Freind 25/1, Quel Esprit 25/1, Diamond Harry 40/1, Time For Rupert 100/1, The Giant Bolster 300/1, China Rock 300/1, Carruthers 500/1, The Midnight Club 500/1, Knockara Beau no price.
Weird Al 100/30
, Burton Port 100/30,
Synchronised 11/2
,
What A Freind 8/1
, Midnight Chase 17/2, Quel Esprit 12/1, Diamond Harry 25/1, Time For Rupert 50/1, China Rock 100/1, The Giant Bolster 200/1, Carruthers 200/1, The Midnight Club 200/1, Knockara Beau 2000/1
In the main market I make Long Run best value. Of the others best is Weird Al at 1 1/2% better than my "fair price". However, there looks more value in betting without the big two. It seems as though that market hasn’t allowed for prominent runners like Midnight Chase having to take on Kauto Star and Long Run. Hold up horses don’t have to get involved in that fight. Weird Al and What A Freind in particular look best.
Latter is a dog, doesn’t want to lead/win, but he doesn’t need to to "win" the betting without race to "win". We know from last year What A Freind acts well on course and ground.
Former is a genuine hold up horse, who’s best fresh. Can’t see too many of these getting as close to the big two as Weird Al in the Betfair Chase.Around 5/1 Weird Al and 10/1 What A Freind look woth taking in Betting Without.
Value Is EverythingHow will this race be run? I guess the pace will be quite quick and Long Run and Kauto will be kept handy. Difficult to see how Kauto can beat LR if LR gets round, as I doubt if Kauto will get enough of a lead to shake off the staying power of LR.
Also it might turn out like the Champion Hurdle, with LR and Kauto playing cat and mouse while the front runners develop an unassailable lead.
Well, many said Kauto was too slow last time he ran. So he’s lost that pace in less than three months? Highly unlikely.
I think Long Run is vulnerable, he’s just leveled out and previously beat Kauto when the champ was not 100%.
OK, this is Long Run’s best chance of beating the equine superstar but I think Kauto can beat him again.
If I had a bet on this I’d do an E/W interest on
Synchronised
at 12/1 as he is underestimated and proved he goes on quicker ground. I was impressed with the way he quickened in Ireland on his last run. (Mick Fitz gave him a strong word Thur night on 5 Live)
This, though, is a race to savour as we could be about to witness the best chaser of all time. We’re lucky to be living at the right time!
On this good ground his superior tun of foot can regain his championship for him. He’s a brilliant leaper and he is
all
class.
So, c’mon Kauto you CAN do it!!!!!
Now, who’s gonna join me in shaking the King Kauto rattle?
Zip
Head says Burton Port but I will be screaming for Kauto if hes close enough – just hope they come back safe and sound really
I think Kautos turn of foot can shake these off if its still there @ 12 – always thought he was better on better ground – now its in his favour.Got a sneaky hunch for TFR as an outsider – doubts about the front two and the ground could make them vulnerable. Stranger things have happened. Not sure in Long Run likes firm side of good at all ? Thats if they dont turn the taps on overnight
If you took the ageing Kauto out of the equation, Long Run would be odds-on.
I see the the race as being a pretty straight forward affair. Ruby Walsh will most probably tuck Kauto Star in behind a couple from the off and will try to maintain a handy, ready-to-pounce position.
I feel it would be folly for SWC on Long Run to try and match strides with Kauto Star or get into a protracted battle early on as it would play right into Ruby’s hands.
Sam Waley-Cohen must get Long Run into a nice relaxing rhythm during the first circuit, preferably in mid divsion. As Ruby Walsh will probably try to turn the screw on the others four from home, SWC must be fully concentrated and should be covering Ruby’s every move, at the same time conserving enough energy for when he has to make the decisive move.
He should wait until just after the penultimate fence before asking Long Run for that one last major effort. If he does and doesn’t panic, then he and Long Run will again be victorious.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
How will this race be run? I guess the pace will be quite quick and Long Run and Kauto will be kept handy. Difficult to see how Kauto can beat LR if LR gets round, as I doubt if Kauto will get enough of a lead to shake off the staying power of LR.
Also it might turn out like the Champion Hurdle, with LR and Kauto playing cat and mouse while the front runners develop an unassailable lead.
Midnight Chase is a genuine, sound jumping front runner. But his form so far when unable to lead is (so far) not as good. That may or may not be a coincidence. Trainer wasn’t in as good form earlier in the year when not leading. However, there is some uncertainty that needs to be allowed for in assessing whether he’s "value". Especially when there are other front runners who either need to lead (The Giant Bolster) or need to have a view of the front (Carruthers), plus other prominent runners like Quel Esprit and China Rock. China Rock is a doubtful stayer so may be held up tomorrow. The Giant Bolster is also a doubtful stayer, but he needs to lead to jump well or at least have a chance to jump well. Diamond Harry can be held up, but his best performances lately have been when ridden more prominently. And those who are prominent/track pace Knockara Beau (doesn’t like being crowded) and Time For Rupert. Then there’s Synchronised who jumped better last time when ridden closer to the pace than before. Kauto Star seems to like being more prominent these days too. Long Run usually tracks pace. Burton Port can track pace, but expect him to be held up here. The Midnight Club can do anything, but expect him to be held up for a leasurely National prep. Weird Al and What A Freind should be held up / dropped out.
There’s plenty of pace on paper Kasparov, it could pay to be held up. However, sometimes if the Racing Post mentions pace, jockeys read it and change tactics (less pace than you’d think).
Value Is EverythingSynchronised is now down to 10/1 in the main market. Yet still
6/1
with b365 betting without the big two.
Rick? Value Is EverythingBriliant contest; gripping throughout. There is something about that moment half-way up the back-straight, 2nd time round when, aftre all those months of training and planning, the cards finally have to be laid down, that encapsulates everything that is good about NH racing; beautiful, brave horses, steel-nerved jockeys, heart-stopping stuff.
I was delighted fro the connections, even tho at the last minute, I changed from the winner to Burton Port. Yet another reminder what a loss Weapon’s Amnesty was.Briliant contest; gripping throughout. There is something about that moment half-way up the back-straight, 2nd time round when, aftre all those months of training and planning, the cards finally have to be laid down, that encapsulates everything that is good about NH racing; beautiful, brave horses, steel-nerved jockeys, heart-stopping stuff.
.Perfectly summed up
Saddest aspect for me is the continuation of the Celebrity culture that’s strangling this nation.
ITV news just reporting on the Gold Cup – a minute on KS, 10 seconds on the winner of the race. Typical!
I’m a Nicholls, Ruby fan – i’ve won on KS but this ‘celebrity’ stuff around KS and the fact he didn’t really compete hacks me off a bit.
AP’s ride on the winner was masterful – a typical hard-working AP ‘never-give up’ performance to get the horse into contention a couple of fences out. A living legend!
AP, Jonjo & team, and Synchronised your MY heroes tonite.Saddest aspect for me is the continuation of the Celebrity culture that’s strangling this nation.
ITV news just reporting on the Gold Cup – a minute on KS, 10 seconds on the winner of the race. Typical!
I’m a Nicholls, Ruby fan – i’ve won on KS but this ‘celebrity’ stuff around KS and the fact he didn’t really compete hacks me off a bit.
AP’s ride on the winner was masterful – a typical hard-working AP ‘never-give up’ performance to get the horse into contention a couple of fences out. A living legend!
AP, Jonjo & team, and Synchronised your MY heroes tonite.Most of the viewing audience was watching the Gold Cup for Kauto. So of course we would want to know what the heck happened to the champion. Just shows the class of Ruby and AP, both deserve props for today’s race.
well had a last min punt on sync, although my heart was willing kauto on i only saw end of race, saw sync winning, but was worried what had happened to kauto, i thought had he fallen, or did he not race in end, as was wating ch4 update, then saw him walking n with ruby still on board so thought he was pulled up
he has been a grand horse, abit like a modern day desert orchid, and to win 5 king georges, i’ll never forget him
and synchronised and tony did great today, well done to them and connections, wonder whether he will take part n the natonal now off top weight, or whether they leave the gold cup winner, so ballabgriggs will then be top weight
vf
I would run him in the national – seems to thrive on it
Good pace made by midnight chase and time for rupert – who ran really well and impressed me for the first time
sad for kauto but hope he has a happy retirement having his photo taken a lot 
There were a few in with a chance but im not sure they like the ground like it is. Pleased for AP …. deserved it – the battling nature of his rides suit the horse. 3m + races for this horse on soft are all targets. AT chesptow or Aintree would you be either on sync or long run ?
With how close the Giant Bolster got – I cant help thinking is was quite fast ground and lots struggled with it apart from him.
Quite simply a master ride from Mccoy on a horse that had imo had shown the level of form to take his place in the gold cup and give him a chance of winning. Synchro’s win today completely turned round my cheltenham, BUT, under no circumstance should the horse line up for the national, his jumping just would’nt be up to the task.
It was sad to see Kauto pulled up but great to see he was ok, but i was pretty well sick to the back teeth concerning the great big love in with the horse on C4. Also found the post race comments by the c4 panel very dissapointing, saying that Long run had run below form etc, Horses that finish a close 3rd in the gold cup are not performing below par.
thought it was a cracking race mccoy rode the race to perfection i must also add i thought tom scudamore rode a cracker on the giant bolster he seems to be a quirky character and can be a dodgy jumper but tom got him into a good rythym and he jumped pretty well
Quite simply a master ride from Mccoy on a horse that had imo had shown the level of form to take his place in the gold cup and give him a chance of winning. Synchro’s win today completely turned round my cheltenham, BUT, under no circumstance should the horse line up for the national, his jumping just would’nt be up to the task.
It was sad to see Kauto pulled up but great to see he was ok, but i was pretty well sick to the back teeth concerning the great big love in with the horse on C4. Also found the post race comments by the c4 panel very dissapointing, saying that Long run had run below form etc, Horses that finish a close 3rd in the gold cup are not performing below par.
A good post.
It’s just like the footie with the TV co.s making excuses when Man U lose – instead of giving credit to the winner.
AP was at his best and it’s pretty obvious that Synchronised has continued to improve this season – a quality horse IMO, hence my pre-Festival bet on him.
Long Run has NEVER convinced me – KS has been brilliant this season but he’s getting on now and there was an ever increasing chance he’d run in one race too many this season (even allowing for the schooling accident the other week) – KS owes his connections nothing – he’s a legend and will forever be arched in NH history as one of the greats.The 16-times Champ was masterful today – his run on Alderwood was top drawer as well, after he got bashed on the final bend.
AP was also on top form for Will Hill – did anyone see the WH interview/advert after the 1.30? AP tipped up At-A-Glance for the 4.40 – wish i’d had a bet!
Unfortunately, I thought it was a thoroughly depressing end to the Kauto story. I think it’s fine that they wanted to give him one last try, but something in the back of my mind clicked the second the story came out about him being 50/50 for the race. It was so reminiscent of Istabraq the final time, that I could see Kauto doing something similar. That way, he gets one last hurrah from the crowds, and there isn’t the disappointment of him being well beaten ala Moscow Flyer.
Dunno, maybe I’m being too pessimistic, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this had been the plan all the way along.
Great horse, great connections, and Synchronised a brave winner.
I think Kautos turn of foot can shake these off if its still there @ 12 – always thought he was better on better ground – now its in his favour.
Rick? 
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