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Katie Walsh says she has been disappointed with Long Run and says he hasn’t progressed since last season, but that this often happens with French breds and at 7 he should be walking all over Kauto.
Not one person on the panel mentioned that Kauto is also a baguette.
Katie Walsh says she has been disappointed with Long Run and says he hasn’t progressed since last season, but that this often happens with French breds and at 7 he should be walking all over Kauto.
Not one person on the panel mentioned that Kauto is also a baguette.
I saw that, the Boylesports clip?
Think the 50s on offer for Tiday Bay with Stan James isn’t the worst bet in the world.
Katie Walsh says she has been disappointed with Long Run and says he hasn’t progressed since last season, but that this often happens with French breds and at 7 he should be walking all over Kauto.
Not one person on the panel mentioned that Kauto is also a baguette.
I saw that, the Boylesports clip?
Think the 50s on offer for Tiday Bay with Stan James isn’t the worst bet in the world.
It is when he is available at 20/1 on Betfair for a place.
With the ‘rumours’ about welfare of Long Run and Kauto Star I am really getting excited now re my 2 outsiders:
Fingers crossed that’s the outcome
Katie Walsh says she has been disappointed with Long Run and says he hasn’t progressed since last season, but that this often happens with French breds and at 7 he should be walking all over Kauto.
Not one person on the panel mentioned that Kauto is also a baguette.
I saw that, the Boylesports clip?
Think the 50s on offer for Tiday Bay with Stan James isn’t the worst bet in the world.
Yes, it was. I then watched the 2011 clips with Nicholls and Walsh – just to see how prophetic they were – and they talk some Grade A horse****. Pretty much everything Nicholls mentions has " an outstanding chance " ( Ghizao, Aiteen Thirtythree and other nags )
Don’t think Ruby picks one winner and isn’t that enthused with Hurricane Fly.I have always liked Weird Al, and i think there are worse EW bets to have.
I really like the horse, and think he does have a lot of class about him.
From my blog:
The Racing Post will publish Willie Mulllins’ thoughts on his festival team tomorrow. The Kremlin’s top inquisitors would baulk at getting anything out of Mr Mullins but on the off chance that he offers a positive word for Gold Cup entry Quel Esprit, I’m advising a bet at the 16s currently available NRNB.
Quel Esprit does not have the form to win a Gold Cup. But he’s improving, is unbeaten in the 4 completions (of 7 ‘chases), was leading, travelling strongly in last year’s RSA when coming down three out and might well have won had he stood up. It was a weak Grade 1 he picked up last time but his jumping was very slick bar a slight error at the 7th. He races quite keenly and I think he benefited considerably from being allowed to stride on early last time. Hopefully P Townend will adopt the same tactics next Friday – the grey is a most efficient fencer, very quick from one side to the other.
Stamina is a question but I’m happy, at the price, to risk that he will set up a lead and hold onto it travelling well on the likely good ground.
Long Run’s dodgy jumping, Kauto’s confidence, age and interrupted prep might leave this Gold Cup vulnerable to an improver. Weird Al was the value a few months back (tipped here at 20s) but I believe Quel Esprit is the best value bet now.
Good luck.
Think I’d take Quel Espirit over Midnight Chase et al, would have to step up but I think he has the improvement in him.
Any Long Run supporters watching Sam "Wally" Cohen on Refic Des Thaix in the Hunter Chase yesterday must be very concerned about his ability after the shocking ride he gave the horse, totally misjudging the early pace.
Suckered into a "p*ssing contest" with the early leader who had obviously gone off too fast, in fact it looked for a moment, as they came past the winning post for the first time, as if he’d lost count of the number of circuits.
His mount predicably ran out of steam on the second circuit and was pulled up.
If he rides Long Run like that and goes head to head with Midnight Chase on Friday he’ll either hit the deck or run out of steamcorrect decision by connections, glad for my wallet that they resisted the lure of the gold cup. now seemingly the path is clear for another longrun- kauto ding-dong but is it? I have a feeling something else is going to spoil the party. can’t have kauto after his problems and age, and long run just doesn’t look like a dual gold cup winner to me.
the path is clear for an upset, i’d take one of weird al/quel esprit/midnight chase to provide exactly that. particularly midnight chase, as tom segal pointed out he’s now got dougie costello back on board this year which is a big bonus.
Logic.
It’s what this game is all about, really. You look at a horse’s form, the going, how and what the horse is, and you pick the won you think will win.
With hard work, brainpower, a bit of luck, and the application of Logic, you’ll make a few quid.
Facts.
This game has a lot of facts. A lot of cold, hard facts. You might get lucky if you go against them, sometimes, but more often than not you’re onto a loser. Look at what has been done, measure it against what you’ve got, and go accordingly.
Value.
Aaaah, we all like a bit of value, don’t we? We like to see where there’s something people have overlooked, where they’ve ignored either logic, or facts, or both, and just got caught up in some crazy idea, some hype. So value is good.
On Friday, Kauto Star, the greatest racehorse of my lifetime, or any other lifetime come to that, races for what might be the last time. Logic dictates that he’s only won two out of six on the course. Facts dictate that 12-year-olds don’t win it. The Value, if any there be, surely lies with other horses (Burton Port? Quel Esprit? Synchronised? Weird Al?), because, y’know, he’s a bit short at 7/2, isn’t he, and what with him being a 12-year-old who ‘doesn’t like’ the course.
On Friday, Kauto Star, the incomparable, the amazing, the record-breaking, the horse that got me into racing properly, will line up to take a shot at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
They said no horse could regain the Gold Cup, Logic said it was not so. They said he wasn’t going to win a fourth Betfair, not at his age. Facts dictated that to them. They said he couldn’t – just couldn’t – win a fifth King George, because there was no value, unlike with his rivals.
The King took a look and laughed in their faces.
**** Logic.
**** Facts.
**** Value.
This is about Destiny. This is about Glory.
Believe.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
i’d rather rely on the logic you mentioned rather than some faith in "destiny" why don’t other horses in the race have a right to their own destiny? is kauto somehow the only one worthy of the hand of fate?
besides the idea that he can somehow win a gold cup, then become the first horse to "regain a gold cup" then get beat, then "regain" another gold cup, for me its straying into twilight zone land now.
the one thing kauto star will like is the ground. he’s always been a supreme mover. the problem is as he’s getting older he won’t have the pace to quicken away from the younger horses as he did in the past.
I don’t like long run either, I don’t think he’s the same horse he was in the gold cup last year, maybe the race left its mark, and I don’t think he’ll like the ground. I think he’s had problems with his jumping and I think that a bit of juice in the ground would have helped him.
to be honest I think more and more that both these horses are massive lays. you could argue that the opposition is weak, but i’m not so sure. something always emerges from the pack, especially at cheltenham. I think its dangerous to assume that because kauto star and long run have had the edge in form this season, that will continue on friday.
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