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Long Run had a very hard race in the Gold Cup. If the race has not left any lasting marks he remains the one to beat. The current best odds of 3/1 are probably down to the fact that very few horses win back to back Gold Cups and because he had such a hard race. If he returns as good as ever he will probably trade at 7/4 if he wins the Betfair Chase and Evens if he wins the King George.
At present the opposition is thin on the ground, of the older brigade Denman and Imperial Commander will probably turn up again but they will only be making up the numbers and racing for a place.
The biggest disappointment for me at Cheltenham was Time for Rupert, the horses that beat him look to be nothing more than good handicappers. He will still be a young horse next year and will be aimed at the Gold Cup. The present odds of 16/1 are too high (just as the 25/1 for Long Run was last year). If he has recovered from whatever was ailing him at Cheltenham and can get back on the winning trail I can see his odds tumbling to around 8/1.
Rubi Ball is a top class French chaser who has beaten and been beaten by Long Run, his present odds of 16/1 will tumble if he has the Gold Cup confirmed as a target.
Captain Chris could just as easily end up running in the Champion Chase or the Ryanair and speaking through my pocket I hope he goes for the former.
Masterminded is something of an enigma, he was very impressive over 2.5 miles last time out. If he is beaten in the King George he will probably drop down in distance and run in the Ryanair.
Diamond Harry, Weapons Amnesty and Burton Port are coming back from injuries.
Wishful Thinking and Mon Parrain are brilliant jumpers of a fence and look to be improving although they are not certain to get the trip and may run elsewhere.
Big Bucks is looking to rewrite the record books for the World Hurdle.
Grands Crus currently available at 50/1 would be an interesting contender if he ran in the Gold Cup as a novice.
Pandorama needs a bog and the other Irish horses don’t look good enough.
So we have horses who are not good enough, not certain to stay, may run in a different race, unlikely to get soft ground, may not have recovered from injury, or may not improve enough.
For me the value is Long Run @ 3/1 and Time For Rupert @ 16/1 EW
"Sea Pigeon" wrote: Pandorama needs a bog and the other Irish horses don’t look good enough.
I thought Ireland would win this year’s Gold Cup after Weapon’s Amnesty hacked up in the RSA and if he retains that ability I still think he’ll be hard to beat. We won’t know the answer to that question until the autumn though.
The other Irish horse I like is in the same ownership: Quito De La Roque. I thought he wouldn’t have the pace for 3 miles on fast ground at the start of the season but I’m delighted that if anything he’s better on good going. He’s a lazy sort who overcame a couple of horrendous errors at Aintree to battle home before slaughtering the field at Punchestown during the week. He’ll love the hill and you can be sure he won’t be outstayed.
Boston’s Angel is tough as nails and will be sure to run his race, but whether that will be good enough is another issue. I backed Jessies Dream in the RSA this year and felt he was a bit unlucky. If they could get his jumping straightened out he probably wouldn’t be far away either, but Boston’s Angel out-battled him fair and square and battling qualities are something you need in a Gold Cup.
Quito De La Roque for me.
Most exciting young chaser has got to be Mon Parrain, won in a canter at Sandown over 3 miles so he gets the trip alright
Was so gutted when he got tired in the Topham and just lost out to a course specialist with a stone less and 5 years on him
Beautiful jumper and one I am definitely looking forward to see next season.
Quito De La Roque is a unbelievable ommision from that list!!
Best Novice Chaser seen in years….Aintree/Punchestown double was superb
I quite like Time For Rupert and would happily take 16s on him. He was not himself in the RSA, that was not him getting outclassed or outpaced, that was a horse who was clearly uncomfortable and something was up.
I really wouldn’t be surprised if he comes back in banging form and shapes as a really serious horse this season.
I think most of the opposition will be irish, obviously Quito De La Roque, and there is a tiny, probably slightly insane, part of me that thinks Joncol, if he’s right, and it’s soft, could win a gold cup. I think he’s better than he’s shown so far, but time is running out.
Looking at the disapointment of Long Run in the 2010 RSA Chase … i think it just goes to show what a year in racing can do, when Long Run won the 2011 Gold Cup.
The 2010 RSA has been some what of a grave yard, with Weapon’s Amnesty, Burton Port, Diamond Harry all scheduled for the 2011 Gold Cup, but pulling out injured half way through the season…
If they were there and accounted for and had raced, i could have seen the older less profiled horses such as Neptunes Collonges, Tidal Bay not running. It just shows that this years Gold Cup was pretty weak, as all the best novices IMO fromt he previous season were not there, excluding Long Run.
Next season, with the 3 i have mentioned most likely returning to run in the Gold Cup, and on top some of the best novices from this season,,, such as Quito De La Roque, Time For Rupert, Boston’s Angel i can see it being a fresh wide open race…
This is how i would guess at the moment who would be running in the race.:
Long Run
Imperial Commander
Denman
Quel Esprit
Burton Port
Weapon’s Amnesty
Diamond Harry
Midnight Chase
Bostons Angel
Time For Rupert
What A Friend
Quito De La RoquePossibles – Captain Chris, Masterminded, Carruthers, Pandorama, kempes
Same here – but I’m sure they may well be an addition or two as the year rolls around…
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Just found out I’m gonna be a dad for the first time and the babys due on gold cup day. Was gonna stick a few quid on Baby Run just for the crack. Is it unheard of for a racehorse to improve 40lbs at the grand old age of 12?
And this post has turned me into a group winner I think….. brilliant.
I quite like HillQuinz as a name. Seriously tho, Quinz is 150+ on betfair at the moment, must be aimed at the race after his victory in the racing post chase. His appearance in the national was purely based on his weight imo, not on the fact he might enjoy the fences. He didnt look to enjoy the experience and was quite rightly pulled up, no harm done. He’ll only need to improve a few pounds to be a realistic contender to Long Run (of course the official handicapper might say otherwise) and sure to have a big, big season. Would be more of an interest if he went for the King George, looked very impressive going right-handed the couple of races I’ve watched.
Ps. I couldnt call my child Rupert, but there’s another one anyway.
No horse impressed me more last season than Wishfull Thinking. He looks an ideal type for the King George and I for one think he’ll stay the Gold Cup trip.
Looked a machine at Aintree and Punchestown.
Wondering whether to take the 20/1 Weapons Amnesty. Has there been any campaign mapped out? I am thinking that even if he returns somewhere near his best his win record outside Cheltenham is pretty average so there is a chance of a defeat and a market drift.
According to Sporting Life today (edited):
Exciting chaser Weapon’s Amnesty is likely to make his eagerly anticipated return in November.
"He’s in good form at the moment and the plan is for him to be out somewhere in November," said Byrnes.
"I haven’t got anything earmarked at the moment and the thing with him is that he has to go left-handed.
"The plan after that would be to go to Leopardstown for the Lexus Chase over Christmas.
"I’m confident his ability remains intact as he hasn’t got much mileage on the clock."
A friend tells me Long Run has grown again over his summer holiday.
Thanks, that sounds quite upbeat but weighing it all up I think it makes sense to see him show something on the track before getting too excited.
Weapons Amnesty is a really good bet if you ask me. I wouldn’t be at all put off if the horse shows no kind of form until March as he’s already show that he acts well round Cheltenham, winning his last two festival races, including one against someone called Long Run. Granted the latter may have lacked experience and his jumping may have come on a lot since but if you’re asking me to back ante-post now I’d rather have Weapons Amnesty e/w at 20s than Long Run at around 5-2. I suppose the injury lay off would be a concern at this stage, but Hurricane Fly seemed to manage ok earlier this year
Rocky Hill does have a ring to it!
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