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I must admit to being slightly perplexed by Bog Warrior’s showing today at Naas. Apart from Davy Russel taking the long/softer ground route on the outside all the way round, the horse jumped sluggishly. Maybe he lacked fitness.
As for the "Arkle": should be a great race and definitely one to savour. Horses who try to make all in this race have an abysmal record. Reports suggest that Nicky henderson has been training Sprinter Sacre to try and settle more as they hope to do the others for speed.
Apparently no other horse in the Henderson yard is capable of matching strides with Sprinter Sacre, so for that reason he works on his own ( yes, yes, with a work rider aboard
) .NH also thinks that SS could be the best horse he has ever trained and that everyone connected with the Henderson stable just won’t hear of defeat this coming tuesday at Cheltenham.
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I must admit to being slightly perplexed by Bog Warrior’s showing today at Naas. Apart from Davy Russel taking the long/softer ground route on the outside all the way round, the horse jumped sluggishly. Maybe he lacked fitness.
As for the "Arkle": should be a great race and definitely one to savour. Horses who try to make all in this race have an abysmal record. Reports suggest that Nicky henderson has been training Sprinter Sacre to try and settle more as they hope to do the others for speed.
Apparently no other horse in the Henderson yard is capable of matching strides with Sprinter Sacre, so for that reason he works on his own ( yes, yes, with a work rider aboard
) .NH also thinks that SS could be the best horse he has ever trained and that everyone connected with the Henderson stable just won’t hear of defeat this coming tuesday at Cheltenham.
He might well be a superstar, but there is very little chance of him settling imo. BG would be as well letting him get on with it rather than risk putting him on the floor.
Thinking about how the race will be run, it’s not beyond possibility Cue Card and Sprinter Sacre will take each other on up front. Anyone thinking of doing a forecast might try Al Ferof and Menorah.
Value Is EverythingOoohhhhhhhhh how I need to kick off with an Al Ferof win. That would set me up gorgeously for the week. Anything else and I think I’m already staring down the barrel of defeat
It is very straightforward, for anything else to win the race, Sprinter Sacre has to under-perform. His win at Newbury was against a reliable grade two level performer, the manner of that victory was the a joy to behold.
I’m on Cue Card antepost and I think he will run a big race tomorrow but I’m far from confident that he’ll win. Sprinter Sacre scares the hell out of me and to a lessor extent Al Ferof. Both look class so it should a hell of a race. C’mon Cue Card!
Sorry to be a mardy backside, but 5-6 runners in an Arkle is pretty dissapointing.
I hope the organisers are happy with the 4 day dilution, 3 odds on jollies on the opening day of Cheltenam and a 6 (at best) runner Arkle? Bad sign.
6 runners is a joke.
But then many of the trials / novice chases have had four or fewer runners.
Has to be looked at.
How many of those in the Jewson would have run in the Arkle if it didn’t exist? Peddler’s Cross and no others.
Thats purely guesswork on your part. Plenty of horses who comfortably stay further have stepped back and being competetive / won Arkles.
Guesswork?
Sir Des Champs. For Non Stop. Solix. Champion Court. Cristal Bonus. Call The Police.
How many runs over 2m over fences betweem them?
1.
How many runs over 2m/2m1f in each of their last 5 starts?
4.
it is dissapointing. you have to question why peddlers cross and flemenstar for example, aren’t running in this race. why take in a novice chase at navan when you have a chance of cheltenham glory? presumably the trainer wants to take it slowly with this horse, and didn’t want to risk him on quick ground. peddlers problems have been well documented I suppose.
or perhaps they are all genuinely afraid of sprinter sacre. we’ll know a lot more this time tomorrow whether or not he’s the real deal. even with 6 runners theres still some quality opposition in there.
Guesswork?
Sir Des Champs. For Non Stop. Solix. Champion Court. Cristal Bonus. Call The Police.
How many runs over 2m over fences betweem them?
1.
How many runs over 2m/2m1f in each of their last 5 starts?
4.
When there are three exceptionally good novices who everyone thought were going for the Arkle (Sprinter Sacre, Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross). Plus potentially one of the best novice staying chasers to be seen (Grands Crus)…
It is obvious horses you’ve quoted would concentrate on 2 1/2 miles.For Non Stop went very very close to beating the Arkle second favourite at Sandown. To think he wouldn’t be effective at a stiff 2 miles is crazy.
Call The Police ran Final Approach to 2 lengths in one of the biggest 2 mile handicap Hurdles last year. Would be effective at a strongly run 2 miles.
There’d be others in the Jewson to be effective at 2 miles too.
Although even if the Jewson didn’t exist, some would’ve fought shy of those good horses anyway. By going for the handicaps.Value Is EverythingGuesswork?
Sir Des Champs. For Non Stop. Solix. Champion Court. Cristal Bonus. Call The Police.
How many runs over 2m over fences betweem them?
1.
How many runs over 2m/2m1f in each of their last 5 starts?
4.
Yes guesswork. What do those statistics really mean? Not a lot. If Captain Chris had ran in last seasons Jewson, you’d more than likely have dismissed it by quoting his previous runs and saying he was never quick enough to run in an Arkle anyway. Is that a fair comment?
The fact is the Jewson as a conditions race WILL consistently reduce the Arkle’s numbers. IMO in the long run it will also affect its prestige.
This may be an extreme example – the seemingly exceptional jolly has definately scared some off (no matter what Gingers lad says). But i wouldn’t want 6 runner Arkles to become the norm, and i doubt many would.
Yes, that is a fair comment re. Captain Chris.
Well I have no problem with it. 5 decent contenders, 2 of them very good, 1 outsider. Rather a select field than a field of 15 with rubbish horses bringing others down.
This may be an extreme example – the seemingly exceptional jolly has definately scared some off (
no matter what Gingers lad says
). But i wouldn’t want 6 runner Arkles to become the norm, and i doubt many would.
Haven’t we said the same thing PC?
We agree.
Value Is EverythingBack to the race itself:
My 100% book:
Sprinter Sacre 10/11,Al Ferof 11/4
, Menorah 11/1, Cue Card 12/1, Blackstairsmountain 33/1, 400/1 Foidubh.
Not much value about now. Already on Al Ferof, but it would only be a small profit if it won as also on Peddlers Cross. 3/1 Al Ferof is available, but it’s only just above my estimation.
Do think there’s quite a big chance of Cue Card going off too quick and Sprinter Sacre (not being able to front run) not settling. My prices above try to allow for that eventuallity, but even so… If I was betting now it would be an Al Ferof / Menorah forecast.
Value Is Everything
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