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It was an excellent performance and I said at the time that I think it was a career best. The RPRs don’t agree and neither does the handicapper, but given that he’s all stamina, to win round Newbury giving 10lbs to Burton Port as you say, was a very good performance. We’ll never see him in any National, but I’d love to see him go round Chepstow one year if they had decent ground for a Welsh National.
But yes, I don’t pay any attention to racing that’s not pattern stuff so my focus and definitions change. Getting caught up in bad horses is not a good idea for me, because it’s my negativity and cynicism which gets me my profit. I’m also $hit at reading AW handicaps
I hope Geraghty goes wide of Cue Card. Can see that thing falling and taking out anything behind him.
I hope Ruby keeps wide of
Sprinter Sacre
as this fellows exuberance makes him 2/1 to fall at the first, 3/1 to fall at the second and 4/6 to fall at the 3rd,I make him a 1/2 shot to lose the race through his over indulgence.Cheltenham takes No prisoners,this fellow can skip round flat courses allday and thats what he’s done at Doncaster,Kempton and Newbury,Ruby knows if ‘Sprinter Sacre’ does make it to the last,he’s on a horse that will take him anyway! The Greys a cool customer,Sprinters the opposite.I’ll take a close look at him in the pre-lims before I lay him Odds-On in running,he’ll go 10/11 after the first if he’s ‘bolted’!
Obviously no one wants to see horses fall but I can imagine SS doing just that, we just don’t know how it will jump fences around Cheltenham whereas we do about AF. And with the PP offer, AF has to be the bet here. Proven quantities are the way to go at the festival IMO.
Why is Sprinter Sacre a likely fall candidate? Yes he can pull pretty hard, but he’s the bets jumper in the field. He’s the most athletic quick jumper out of these comfortably.
Given the pace i expect them to go, any competitor could fall. Seems a relatively hopeful rather than logic based argument considering Sprinter Sacre is the best jumper in the field on all known evidence.
Peddler’s Cross is the one horse i can’t quite get a handle on for this race. Cue Card will lead and if he doesn’t fall will travel down the hill well but be beaten off rounding the turn. Menorah will probably hack behind and either blunder his stance away mid-race or hit the 3rd last really hard and give himself too much to do. Al Ferof will be a little outpaced (like last year) but stay strongly up the hill. All the main protoganists to SS are relatively easy to project bar Peddler’s Cross.
Im very confident Sprinter Sacre will win, but frankly don’t really know what to expect from PC.
Fair post Rich. I do think Al ferof is a good e/w shout, even at 11/2. That deal you mention means he needs to finish second, but if you go e/w he can finish third and you’d get slightly more than your money back at this point. Therefore this PP deal that people wait for isn’t all that. Also, taking a ‘finish 2nd to Sprinter Sacre’ would also mean more people not backing SS, and lessening the bookies liability on him if he wins. Therefore this so called special deal is garabage on two counts. For this post to make financial sense you’d obviously have to firmly believe he won’t be out of the first three, and i don’t think he will be. I just see no scenario where Al Ferof isn’t up there.
Paddy Power are doing a ‘money back if Sprinter Sacre wins’ deal.
Having a Dutch-type thingy with Peddler’s Cross and Al Ferof. Have always been sweet on PC, and AF has looked good and has form in the book with SS.
That said, I’m pleased that this is going up – SS has looked impressive…and I think that he’s not the certainty some would have us believe.
Now, I’ve just given hope to Cue Card fans…
FLD
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I hope Ruby keeps wide of
Sprinter Sacre
as this fellows exuberance makes him 2/1 to fall at the first, 3/1 to fall at the second and 4/6 to fall at the 3rd,I make him a 1/2 shot to lose the race through his over indulgence.Cheltenham takes No prisoners,this fellow can skip round flat courses allday and thats what he’s done at Doncaster,Kempton and Newbury,Ruby knows if ‘Sprinter Sacre’ does make it to the last,he’s on a horse that will take him anyway! The Greys a cool customer,Sprinters the opposite.I’ll take a close look at him in the pre-lims before I lay him Odds-On in running,he’ll go 10/11 after the first if he’s ‘bolted’!
For a horse that hasn’t even stumbled once, that’s a load of waffle.
He’s very clever when half a stride to a stride too close.
Obviously no one wants to see horses fall but I can imagine SS doing just that, we just don’t know how it will jump fences around Cheltenham whereas we do about AF. And with the PP offer, AF has to be the bet here. Proven quantities are the way to go at the festival IMO.
Have you seen the form of Arkle winners ?
Captain Chris – course form
Sizing Europe – no course form
Forpadydeplasterer – no course form
Tidal Bay – course form
My Way De Solzen – course form
Voy Por Ustedes – no course form
Contraband – course form
Well Chief – no course form, one race prior to festival
Azertyuiop – course form
Moscow Flyer – no course form, fell prior to festivalSome great horses there that will probably have had people writing them off because of inexperience and lack of Cheltenham course form over fences.
Moscow, Well Chief and Sizing Europe. " all odds on to fall before the fourth " .Haha.
Very easy to write off SS prior to the race and caveat it by saying " well we don’t know how good he is "
His jumping of fences has never been tested IMO, and he hasn’t jumped fences at Cheltenham. The festival and a moderate race at Newbury/3 runner race at Kempton are poles apart. I think KF has a fair point, exuberant jumping isn’t what you want at the festival, AF and PC seem to be much more economical. I fear for SS two weeks today…
(cue barrage of abuse
)His jumping of fences has never been tested IMO, and he hasn’t jumped fences at Cheltenham.
(cue barrage of abuse
)See my previous post about Well Chief, Moscow and Sizing Europe.
Fair enough, of course there will be some winners with no previous course form but I maintain the fact that it can only be a plus for me.
Both Well Chief and Sizing Europe had previous Cheltenham form (I define ‘Cheltenham form’ here as running well at Cheltenham previously, either over hurdles or fences or bumpers, winning or placing, which SS has to be fair, but was beaten by AF).
(The above is a bit tautological yes, but I’m just setting the record straight, so please don’t have a go
)His jumping of fences has never been tested IMO, and he hasn’t jumped fences at Cheltenham. The festival and a moderate race at Newbury/3 runner race at Kempton are poles apart. I think KF has a fair point, exuberant jumping isn’t what you want at the festival, AF and PC seem to be much more economical. I fear for SS two weeks today…
(cue barrage of abuse
)Only Al Ferof has jumped fences at Cheltenham (Not counting Cue Card as he fell) and that race won’t compare to this.
His jumping of a fence has never been tested? I beg to differ. He’s run in graded open company and hacked around, where his jumping was spectacular. He’s not economic at his fences, but then i don’t see that as a real problem because A) He’s very athletic and is very able to re-correct himself at any fence and B) His exuberant jumping hasn’t seen him off the bridle yet indicating it isn’t a problem.
Any horse can in race like the Arkle. There is no evidence to think SS is more prone to falling at Cheltenham than the others. If i were to be worried about jumping, it’s related to Cue Card or Menorah.
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