2012 Arkle

Al Ferof wouldn’t finish halfway in a Champion Hurdle – looks a shocking price relative to Peddlers Cross.

Stilvi Isn’t the supreme novice and champion hurdle run over the same course and distance on the same day? So how can you say al ferof wouldn’t finish halfway in the champ when he racked up a time quicker than hurricane fly on the same day and c&d???

Horses in the Supreme Novices carry 3 lbs less than those running in the Champion.

Stilvi Isn’t the supreme novice and champion hurdle run over the same course and distance on the same day? So how can you say al ferof wouldn’t finish halfway in the champ when he racked up a time quicker than hurricane fly on the same day and c&d??? Anyway he ain’t hurdling now so doesn’t really matter just thought your comment was a bit ill informed. Should make for good watching if both peds and al ferof are fit

I just think that goes to show how little times matter. If Al Ferof was considered to be a genuine contender for a Champion Hurdle he would still be running over hurdles. He picked up the Supreme because the race effectively fell apart in front of him. If they had a re-run the Henderson pair would still be favourite to beat him and if Cue Card had a jockey on board I wouldn’t be sure of him confirming the form with that one either.

He made a reasonable enough chasing debut but I didn’t think he was especially fluent and personally I think he would be more effective over a longer trip. If 7/1 against 5/1 is correct you have to believe that Al Ferof has improved a good deal more than Peddlers Cross from hurdles to fences.

Only novice chasers to have impressed me so far have been Peddler’s Cross, Al Ferof and Bob’s Worth. I had £5 a week on Al Ferof from the day after the Cheltenham until the beginning of November, all at 12/1, and as delighted as I am with his performance last month, I am very worried about Peddler’s Cross. His fluency and jumping have been superb and the gap between winning a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Champion Hurdle is huge. Ok, Peddler’s Cross didn’t win it but few hurdlers have as much pace as Hurricane Fly.

Perhaps Al Ferof benefitted from the pace collapsing, but the manner of his victory was very similar to that of Noland’s, and he did it against a horse who won the Champion Hurdle the following year. Al Ferof had far too much toe for Spirit Son, who excelled when stepped up 4f in trip the following month and beat Rock on Ruby by 21 lengths.

Al Ferof is clearly a very high class horse. Yes, throughout the summer Nicholls stated that all his homework was telling him that Al Ferof was a 3-miler, but he ran him in a Graded chase for his debut, the same Graded chase that Ghizao, Azertyuiop, Tataniano, Thisthatandtother and Fadalko all won. He’s had 1 run less than Peddler’s Cross, he’s by Dom Alco and he’s got experience around Cheltenham’s fences.

Peddler’s Cross has only Bangor fence experience and looks like he’ll be going to Haydock for his next start. Al Ferof runs at Sandown on Saturday, so while he’ll have had chasing experience over the 2 biggest tests you’ll find over fences in this country in the 2 biggest 2-mile novice chases of this stage of the season, Peddler’s will have had experience only up north in egg-and-spoon events – presuming the event at Haydock isn’t abandoned.

I don’t think 7/1 is a short price about Al Ferof. If I weren’t on at 12s, I’d have no qualms about getting on at 7s, but I’d say actually that I think Peddler’s Cross is very big at 9/2 for a Champion Hurdle runner-up whose won his opening 2 chases very impressively.

As for anything coming out of the woodwork, it looks unlikely. Cue Card, Sam Winner and Salden Light just aren’t good enough and doubtful that a 5yo Kumbeshwar could make the vast in-roads needed to take on those who head the betting.

So other than Menorah and Sprinter Sacre, who’ve raced just 1 between them this season so far, difficult to envisage any other dangers turning up. And why would you fear either of them? Menorah’s never beaten anything of worth and was beating only novices last year before he turned up in the Champion Hurdle and got stuffed by Peddler’s Cross, while Sprinter Sacre got stuffed by Al Ferof in the opening event.

I actually think dutching both Peddler’s and Al wouldn’t be the worst idea as you’d be getting 7/4 about Peddler’s winning it and 5/2 about Al.

Given the paucity of opposition Al Ferof has to win with a degree of comfort. There have been better midweek fields than this.

I was surprised Al Ferof wasn’t shortened for the Festival after another fine round – idling from the last: he’d fair bit in hand I think.

I was surprised Al Ferof wasn’t shortened for the Festival after another fine round – idling from the last: he’d fair bit in hand I think.

Better take advantage of such generosity then? I often think ‘idling’ is trotted out a little too often to disguise a below par performance. Personally, I think he won with nothing extra in hand and there was absolutely no reason to shorten him for the Festival – he was long odds on against a pretty ordinary field. Not really surprised a few bookmakers shortened the favoutite.

I’ll wait a bit longer thanks . . . as to idling, as we’ve discussed on another thread, interpreting a run or a horse’s character is just down to opinions. You seem to prefer hard evidence, and that’s fine. I’ve lost a fair bit of cash following my interpretation of things and won some too. It suits me. Yours suits you. No argument from my side.

Yes of course stamina is an asset. Are you suggesting Peddlers Cross is short on stamina? He has shown top level form over further, Al Ferof hasn’t.

If you want to try and convince yourself that Al Ferof was impressive yesterday that is up to you. You could just as easily argue For Non Stop eventually didn’t want to go past (he has only won one race in his career which would suggest he isn’t the toughest horse to beat) as suggest the winner was idling.