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Obviously won’t be weighted to win, but the thing to bear in mind is that from a monetary point of view he just has to finish in the first 10 to make it worthwhile.
Alandi – he’s had 8 starts for five wins, two seconds and a fifth, he came on to the scene last year winning the Listed Vintage Crop Stakes at his second start over 1m5f (2600m), he then ran Profound Beauty to a neck in the Gr3 Curragh Cup over 2800m, he finished off the season with a hattrick of wins – in the Listed Ballycullen Stakes over 2800m, the Group 1 Irish St Leger over 2800m and the Prix du Cadran over 4000m (beating Yeats)…if he hadn’t had his last run, I’d say that he’d be absolutely perfect for Australian conditions,
but the 4000m run can make them dour forever
, so I’d be cautious…also a big query on good/dead ground
I don’t know about that. The horse he just nudged out for the win in the Cadran, Kasbah Bliss, finished a ½L 3rd in the 12f Hong Kong Cup in his next start.
Fair point – I guess I mean when it comes to the way Australian races are run, stop start, so to speak, they can’t seem to handle it after running 4000m. But it is different everywhere, a Japanese 4000m is different to an English 4000m, just because of the way the race is run.
Thought some of you might find this interesting, a preview of today from a Melbourne Cup perspective.
Both the SA Derby and the Tenno Sho from Japan promise to unveil Melbourne Cup contenders today.
The SA Derby, nearly every year, produces a Cup contender. Last year was one of the off years, although I’m sure if Rebel Raider stayed sound, he would have been competitive. He is likely to get his chance this year.
2008 had Zarita make the final field, but she was scratched on race morning. 2007 saw winner Lazer Sharp run 10th, while Red Lord made the field the following year. 2006 was another poor year, while 2005 was seemingly the poorest of them all – yet one horse made it to the Melbourne Cup (Bart’s Kamsky, he was 200-1) and another started in it two years later after running 2nd in the Caulfield Cup (Douro Valley).
Other winners in recent times to run in the Cup have included Mark Kav’s first Cup runner, Hard to Get, 2003 favourite until his Cup morning scratching Mummify, Big Pat, Markham, Cheviot, Count Chivas, Bullwinkle, Our Pompeii, Melbourne Cup winner Subzero and runner up Shiva’s Revenge.
There is no doubt that it is underrated as a Cup form race – and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the likes of Extra Zero, Red Colossus, Kidnapped, Token of Honour, Second King or Sea Galleon competitive in the spring.
The other race is the Tenno Sho, a G1 over 3200m in Japan. Makybe Diva ran 6th in this race in her only overseas sojourn in 2005. Delta Blues finished 10th in the Tenno Sho in April 2006 at his final run before he ran 3rd in the Caulfield Cup at 80-1. We all know he subsequently won the Melbourne Cup. Eye Popper ran 3rd in the 2005 Tenno Sho before running 2nd in the Caulfield Cup and 12th in the Melbourne Cup (he was slaughtered).
This year, the likely favourite is Jaguar Mail, having his first run since being beaten half a length in the Hong Kong Vase behind Daryakana. He, to my eye, looks the perfect Melbourne Cup type. If he wins today, expect him to be very high up in bookies markets when the first Melbourne Cup markets are released. He is being ridden today by Craig Williams too – makes an Australian mission look very possible.
Just remember – today could be vital in terms of the spring.
I must say – with Williams riding Jaguar Mail – I’m convinced that he’s going to be on a Cup mission.
I was wondering why Williams went to Japan, he gave up the ride on one of his favourite horses in Ortensia. Bigger spoils await perhaps?
SA Derby results – Kidnapped beat Red Colossus and Sea Galleon.
I think that this was a good SA Derby trifecta, but I doubt the top two are Melbourne Cup horses. Kidnapped is by Viscount out of a Dehere mare, and so he’d be extremely questionable at 3200m. Red Colossus is a Testa Rossa out of a Palace Music mare, so once again, you’d doubt his stamina.
However, I really like Sea Galleon as a progressive type.
He’s by Galileo, and some of his runs are much better than they look on paper.
If there is a Melbourne Cup horse out of that race, it is Sea Galleon.
Tenno Sho results – as I predicted, Jaguar Mail won – almost 6-1 in Australia, unbelievable price. Very nice win indeed, and I’d expect him to make his presence felt in Australia if he comes.
If I were Leigh Jordon, Racing Victoria’s international scout, I’d be making sure that they are top of my list. He looks a real nice horse, with a good turn of foot.
WOW who exactly is picking out these nags for the boys down under?
I didn’t quote your entire post, but I wholeheartedly agree.
Those who buy these slowpokes are quite simply egomaniacs with too much cash to splash about. They read the newspaper and Kenny Callendar whinging: "the Europeans have the wood on the locals in the staying ranks" ad nauseum. They go searching for one on that basis alone.
Find the European stayer, buy it. No care for if they boast speed or aren’t built like store horses.
Coolmore are good spruikers who pull the wool over these prospective owners’ eyes. They read Changingoftheguard was next in line for Yeats’ stayers throne, and that was the clincher.
There is no attention to if the horse can quicken off a beer coaster, or isn’t built like a chaser. Essentially the important information is ignored.
Look at the owners of these pigs. All fairly recognisable identities in both the racing and gossip circles. Michael Sullivan (head of Sportingbet Australia) has a share in about 4 European stayers, as an example.
So Extra Zero blew out (yet again)? Luckily, Betfair haven’t gotten around to adding him to the Melbourne Cup market, despite me asking them twice, so I haven’t wasted any pennies on it yet. I can’t think that it is anymore Hayes’ best 3yo.
High quality version of the Spring Tenno Sho here
http://jra.jp/JRADB/asx/2010/08/201003080410h.asx
Low quality here
http://jra.jp/JRADB/asx/2010/08/201003080410.asx
English version probably available tomorrow.
You reckon Nanton will come down then Gerald? Good run yesterday.
The presenter on Betfair/Timeform radio yesterday afternoon said that he was speaking with Jim Goldie on Friday afternoon, and the Melbourne Cup was mentioned then.
I’d have thought that now he’s got his Group 2 second place, so long as he remains fit and well, then he’ll travel.
Remember that there is a certain amount of romance that the connections have, as they went for both legs of the Autumn Double last year – the 1m1f Cambridgeshire, and the 2m2f Cesarewitch. The Autumn Double is supposed to be for punters, not horses.
I think Extra Zero’s been overhyped – or he was in a purple patch last spring and just hasn’t gone on with it. It is bad, I can’t even think of any really good horse that Hayes has had in recent times, except Our Aqaleem.
He ran 7th today.
Definitely think Jaguar Mail should be set for the Cup, he’d run a big race. Perhaps Meiner Kitz too.
Nanton would be an interesting runner.
I must say though, it will be a harder race to get into this year in my opinion.
Cup plans for Jaguar
* Matt Stewart
* From: Herald Sun
* Monday, 3 May 2010TWO big hurdles to Craig Williams winning the 150th Melbourne Cup on star Japanese stayer Jaguar Mail are weight and quarantine.
Connections said the Cup was Jaguar Mail’s target after Williams won Japan’s premier staying race, Sunday’s Tenno Sho, on the horse.
But owner Katsumi Yoshida said the weight Jaguar Mail received for the Cup could decide whether he made the trip.
And even if Yoshida approves of the weight Racing Victoria chief handicapper Greg Carpenter allocates – perhaps 57 to 57.5kg – strict quarantine protocols, still in place as a result of Equine Influenza – could thwart the trip.
Japanese trainers have told Racing Victoria that any Cup plans will be abandoned if quarantine requirements are not settled this month.
Carpenter said Jaguar Mail was a better performed horse than Pop Rock and similar to Delta Blues, the Yoshida-owned pair that ran the 2006 Melbourne Cup quinella. Japanese horses have not run since.
Delta Blues carried 56kg – 3kg more than Pop Rock. The minimum that year was 46kg. It was 50kg last year.
Chief executive Dale Monteith said the Victorian Racing Club wanted a special 150th Cup and Japanese horses would bring much to the race.
Williams, who has ridden three winners in Japan since taking up a three-month contract last week, said Jaguar Mail would be a big Cup chance.
"Connections have said they’d think strongly about coming if he got a reasonable weight," he said. "If he was to run in a Melbourne Cup he’d run very, very well."
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Don’t know what the writer is trying to say here. The only time any Cup would have a runner in on 46kgs would be if a 3yo filly ran. That hasn’t happened for almost a century so don’t hold your breath. There certainly wasn’t any runner that carried 46kg in Delta Blues Cup win anyway. Is he suggesting that Jaguar Mail should get 10kg over the minimum eg:- 60kg!!!
Delta Blues carried 56kg – 3kg more than Pop Rock. The minimum that year was 46kg. It was 50kg last year.
Andy you guys must be bored your Aussie forum seems to have gone arse up. The site host went broke?
Yeah I thought that was a bit weird. Very weird in fact. There may have been a 3yo filly nominated that year, I’m going to do some digging.
Ok, so I found out – there was a 3yo gelding nominated, his name was Twostonelighter. He was given 46kg. The limit weight for open class horses was 48kg. Still quite odd.
How did you know about our site Chiswickian, are you a user too? Yes, very bored, although indications are it should be back in the next couple of days. The host company indeed went broke.
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No I do not visit TBV it was mentioned on a private Australian forum that I’m a member of.
Wouldn’t happen to be Race Horse Talk or Racing Australia, would it?
It’s back up now.
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No sir definitely a private group. I wouldn’t touch Racehorse Talk with a full body condom and an anti radiation suit on – it’s TOXIC.
Richard Hughes on Mamlook "He could be a Melbourne Cup horse off a light weight".
He’d be interesting. I’ve seen worse Cup winners in my lifetime.
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