- This topic has 273 replies, 54 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 5 months ago by
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To me races like this only become confusing when you start looking for reasons to ignore the obvious. Gr1 races pay punters at exactly the same ratio as Class6 at the sandpits. Why not look for an easier punting race if you don’t want to back Frankel?
There will never be a bigger punter payout for backing a Gr1 winner. They are easy races to avoid. As gamblers we should never let ego get in the way of long term profit.
To me races like this only become confusing when you start looking for reasons to ignore the obvious. Gr1 races pay punters at exactly the same ratio as Class6 at the sandpits. Why not look for an easier punting race if you don’t want to back Frankel?
I can understand why Frankel has been hyped like he has but at the price he is everything should be in his favour – and the slight doubt about his temperament and whether he’ll appreciate firm conditions at this track suggests they are not. Pathfork looked priced about right to me at around 6/1 in the days leading to the race but the 86/10 available on Betfair this morning was too big to pass up.
To me races like this only become confusing when you start looking for reasons to ignore the obvious. Gr1 races pay punters at exactly the same ratio as Class6 at the sandpits. Why not look for an easier punting race if you don’t want to back Frankel?
There will never be a bigger punter payout for backing a Gr1 winner. They are easy races to avoid. As gamblers we should never let ego get in the way of long term profit.
Surely this is a good race to bet each way?
Odds on favourite.
1/4 the odds a place.
There may be 1 runners, but in my opinion only 7 horses with a realistic chance of placing.Taken 16/1 each way Casamento.
The place potential winnings could pay for my Dream Ahead losses, plus a small profit.Frankel is 4/7:
So if bookies/punters have that price right, 4/7 in fair odds terms is 63.7% chance, less a bookies mark up would mean Frankel has around a "true" 60% chance of winning.
If there was an "open runner race" with three 7/2 co favourites, would you be put off backing something else at 10/1+ in that case? (whether each way or not).
Again, if bookies/punters have it right, 7/2 in fair odds terms is 22.2%. Less bookies mark up to a "true" 20% = a "true" 4/1 chance. 3 X 20 = 60%, the same as Frankel’s chance.Value Is EverythingI know he goes good enough on the ground, but my teeth will be hurting when I see the beast that is Frankel pounding this type of surface. It can’t be doing him much good long term.
- Total Posts 17716
Ginger
It’s hardly "a true 4/1 chance" if you lose the win part of the bet, now is it?
- Total Posts 17716
Sorry to swear but ******* HELL!!
oki’s
poor betting race
frankel with little oppoto win by over 1.5L @ 2/1 (Tote)
should do it
glhow easy
analysis
the win
it all What on earth is McGraph talking about? Couldn’t disagree more.
What did he say? I didnt hear it.
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