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2000 Guineas 2019

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion 2000 Guineas 2019

Viewing 15 posts - 571 through 585 (of 599 total)
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  • #1431246
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 1851

    Not sure why Madhmoon is getting more credit than Skardu. Skardu beat him.

    #1431248
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 1851

    Ta Raymo

    #1431252
    Frenchy15
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    • Total Posts 983

    The ground Mike. He does have a little bit to prove now but that should mean some juicy odds for the SJP if they go that way and hopefully we’ll get some anti post odds up before he possibly runs in the Irish 2000. I don’t see why they would step up now, there’s nothing in the breeding that would say he’d stay 12F. I just think he ran below his potential again whereas Skardu ran a worse race than his Craven run and that form is well dodgy anyway.

    #1431254
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 1851

    the ground changed from good to firm to good. there wasn’t any soft in the description. and Madhmoon has won on good ground. don’t buy into Skardu running worse than in the Craven when he had to take the widest route to finish 1st out of those on the unfavoured side. and Skardu had only won on good to firm before today so he may have not appreciated the heavy shower either. its Skardu who would interest me more in the SJP after that race were he to turn up.

    #1431255
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26588

    Personally, if there was one horse in the first five I’d expect not to improve from here it is Madhmoon. Too much is made of what trainers think. Race times mean ground conditions can’t have been any worse than Good. Connections always come out with excuses when they get beaten and blaming the soft going at Leopardstown needs to be put in to perspective. Madhmoon was still the best horse at the weights in his trial, form not far off his best. Giving the race fit winner 3 lbs and got beat half a length while weakening late as if might come on a little for the run. But if he is best away from soft ground it isn’t by much and should certainly have acted on Good ground today.

    Skardu is inexperienced. This only the third run of his life, all of which came in his home town; therefore I’d expect more improvement. Ten Sovereigns didn’t stay and may well improve at 6f. Magna Grecia is progressive… And although Key Of Change may or may not have been placed had he raced with the pack; he’d still have produced a PB by some way (progressing well). In two 2019 runs Madhmoon is yet to prove any better than he was at two; just might have found his level? :rose:

    value is everything
    #1431258
    TriptychTriptych
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    • Total Posts 9988

    Well done to Mike007 and everyone who backed Magna Grecia, he just romped home and AOB has his 10th winner of the 2000 Guineas since he has been entering horses. :good: I had a last minute fiver on him as he was in my Flat 10 to Follow and he looked so good in the paddock, but then again so did Ten Sovereigns and the Hannon horses it was a difficult one to call and sure many from this race will come out and win throughout the Season….On to the 1000 tomorrow and hope the weather improves got soaked today and it was very windy ;-) Jac

    Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
    #1431260
    GingertipsterGingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 26588

    Well done to all with profit though! And thanks to the advice on this thread I managed to get my money back on a Magna Grecia Saver! :good:

    Well, we aim to please.

    :yahoo: :yahoo: :yahoo:

    value is everything
    #1431270
    jackh1092jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 2580

    Well done winners, i think the winner was probably the best in the race regardless, but after the beers tonight i’ll watch back.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1431284
    moehat
    Participant
    • Total Posts 7835

    Jac; when I saw the rain on the telly t was deja vu and I just thought ‘I know what that’s like’…

    #1431330
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 983

    Having slept on it and had a good look back this morning, some thoughts…..

    1) Is there a rule about how stalls should set up? I just noticed that Newmarket had a row of stalls 1-14 then another one 15-19 with a 2 stall width gap in between. Name the Wind in stall 13 made an immediate move into the middle group creating the initial clear split. Azano (15) then went right across Sporting Chance (14) and taking them both into the middle group, leaving Dark Vision(16) briefly on his own before making a fatal move right instead of left.

    My question on that though is, who are actually responsible for the stalls? Is it upto the course or are there guidelines? I really hope someone looks at that and realises that they created or at least helped to create an unsatisfactory Guineas with a) the way the stalls were positioned and b) the silly way they were set up.

    No-one wants to see a duff result in a classic we’d waited so long to see regardless of who bet on who.

    2) There are a couple of jockey comments afterwards that said they could see the near side had a massive advantage after 2-3F. Why at that point could the leaders, Azano and Kick On not try to inject more pace into their field? It certainly would’ve helped Kick On to have injected a bit more pace at this point no?

    Robert Havlin’s comments here https://www.racingpost.com/news/newmarket-reports/pace-and-tactics-crucial-as-stands-side-dominates-2-000-guineas-finish/379189
    on Azano suggested they couldn’t because they were already going at a decent gallop, as well as suggesting the ground was better on the rail. It did also appear like that from watching the kick up on the tele. Also the time was slow by 1.84s, even though Magna Grecia appeared to win so well off a fast pace.

    All this adds up to the ground being slow and slower in the middle after the heavy rain showers hit.

    Therefore, I’m not going to discount Madhmoon because he didn’t get his optimum conditions again. He looked so good winning the Beresford on GF and he’s not run on it since. It goes back to a conversation I was reading with great interest last year GT about Dee Ex Bee after the Derby if you remember. I’m not saying Madhmoon can’t act on that surface yesterday, I’m just suggesting to get the best run out of him, it needs to be GF. Of course he might not have trained on as hoped from 2 to 3, but until we see that again it’s hard to say that’s his level with confidence.

    All that now said, reading the jockey comments this morning, it appears as though Madhmoon is going to go down the Derby route, so we will never know! I can’t have him for the Derby at all, I just don’t see that. 10F maybe, but 12F around Epsom, no chance for me.

    Mike, if comparing Madhmoon and Skardu, I like Skardu, I had a late partial saver on him in this. He did run a decent race, but for me he’s still a decent horse beating largely average horses, I don’t see a Royal Ascot Group 1 winner there yet. The Craven form is rubbish, that got confirmed yesterday and looking at RPRs yesterday, even if you upgrade the middle group by 2-3Lbs, they still wouldn’t reach King of Change’s 115. 115 is the joint worst runner up RRP in this century of the Guineas! It’s fair to say that was a rubbish Guineas all round!

    In terms of trends, it was a good result, apart from King of Change, the 3rd and 4th were strong on the trends and the winner was as well, based on the condition that you discount a particular trend if the horse has proved it already, ie. Magna Grecia broke a 20year sire trend to win yesterday, but he had already proven himself over 8F so that trend can be discounted when looking at that particular horse. I think that was a point agreed on here! So it was a good result on the trends, which keeps me happy that it is a decent workable system I look at!

    #1431359
    botchy1botchy1
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    • Total Posts 3671

    Frenchy, i tried to find an interview with Prendergast i saw a few months back but cannot find it now. From what i distinctly remember of it was, that because of the closeness of the Irish Guineas to the Derby they would go the English route only if they thought he could be a Derby horse. If not the other route.

    Not saying he is but interesting none the less.

    #1431375
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26588

    Jockeys and trainers talking balls (excuses) about the difference in groups. There wasn’t much between them at halfway. If the second horse had been one of the favourites people would not be challenging the result so much… And yet shortly after halfway Key Of Change was alongside the front runners of the larger group (including the likes of Rob Havlin). Witness Simon Rowlands:

    https://twitter.com/rowleyfilerrr?lang=en

    There may have been a slight advantage in pace, but only very slight. As for a going advantage, well that was blown out of the water by a subsequent race… When all runners came to the stand rail it was those on the outer (towards the middle of the track) that proved successful. So there was no draw advantage.

    value is everything
    #1431380
    IgorBiscan
    Participant
    • Total Posts 49

    I think the later race you refer to was the one Pogo won, where if there was a clear advantage Fox leiecster should of romped it…. Shine so bright did seem to set a better pace and Magna made it count just past the 3 pole…
    T thought TS did well to run the race it did but looked knackered at the line…

    #1431406
    Frenchy15
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    • Total Posts 983

    So jockey error then GT in answer to my question about why did The jockeys on Azano and/or Kick On not inject some pace to catch up after half way? I’m trying to understand why they didn’t. I didn’t see the other race but it’s still a bit fanciful to suggest there wasn’t a draw bias considering a 66/1 shot off a very low rating ran on that side of the track and came second. Could be a coincidence perhaps sure, we’ll never quite know. I do also accept it is entirely possible the horses in the middle just weren’t good enough, but for meit’s still a bit fanciful there wasn’t any draw bias.

    Botchy if he does go the derby route I’ll go nowhere near him, he won’t stay. In fact if he does and not the Irish Guineas/SJP route I’ll be happy to conclude he hasn’t trained on as hoped and he doesn’t have enough speed at a mile now a 3yr old.

    #1431415
    GingertipsterGingertipster
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    • Total Posts 26588

    Draw bias – as in the ground being faster on the stand side – no Frenchy. There may be a very slight pace advantage in that Shine So Bright went an even (perfect) pace. Those in the middle (or at least those at the front of that group) weren’t far off perfect either. Sectional time experts examine race times of every horse, seeing how each fraction of the race was run; ie Whether each horse’s first quarter was quicker than the middle quarters or final quarter. If the centre group had gone a lot slower early you’d expect them to be closing (albeit too late) at the finish. According to sectional time experts they weren’t making any inroads on those you believe were advantaged.

    Jockey error? Not really, just the way the race was run. Why didn’t the centre go the same pace as Shine So Bright? Well the quickest way to get from A to B is not necessarily by going quicker early on. It’s where the best pace is. ie Every jockey knows the quickest way of getting from gates to line is by doing equal fractions. Therefore, those heading the centre group may well have thought Shine So Bright was going too fast! Alternatively, both Ryan on Ten Sovereigns and Rob Havlin on Azano (the leaders on that side ignoring Emaraaty Ana who did go too fast) were on doubtful stayers… And that fact is important to note. It was in their best interests to eek out their stamina by going as slow as possible for everyone behind them, before (in theory) using their speed when kicking for home. In other words they tried to play the percentages by taking a chance on the stand side trio coming back to them. But as I say, the difference in pace was nowhere near as much as jockeys and trainers of beaten horses made out. Key Of Change level with the centre group leaders at halfway.

    value is everything
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