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I wouldn’t want to be too optimistic about any of these maiden winners but with Thunder Snow heading to Kentucky & Blue Point kept to sprinting it looks like Godolphin could well be stuck for a runner.
At the prices National Defence looks interesting at 20/1 but I would like to hear from connections about the possibility of traveling over first.
I wouldn’t want to be too optimistic about any of these maiden winners but with Thunder Snow heading to Kentucky & Blue Point kept to sprinting it looks like Godolphin could well be stuck for a runner.
At the prices National Defence looks interesting at 20/1 but I would like to hear from connections about the possibility of traveling over first.
The Godolphin shortage makes it perhaps more likely that they may give it a whirl with Dream Castle.
The trials have sometimes been pretty average and if Dream Castle could win one of them, it would seem folly not to have a go at the Guineas. Some modest horses have run in the Classic. Glory Awaits was having his ninth race and was rated only 95 when second to Dawn Approach in the 2000 Guineas, so the potential upside of running is there to see.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Backed Caravaggio antepost for te Coventry and Norfolk at Royal Ascot last year after his ridiculously quick time on soft ground in Ireland.
Been backing him for a long long time for the 2017 Guineas but backed off steadily the last 6/8 weeks after missing the Dewhurst and watching Churchill.
If Caravaggio is entered for sure and will run, I’ll take the risk that it stays. He looks and absolute machine though.
Going straight to the Guineas.
I’m in.
Aidan said immediately after the race, that’s it for him for this year, we’ll train him for something like the French Guineas next year. I thought that was a bit strange because War Fronts generally need good ground and he’s not guaranteed that in France, but maybe they thought they had Newmarket covered with Churchill and Caravaggio.
But Orderofthegarter has now laid down a marker for the French Guineas, and Cliffs of Moher is also entered, and both are proven on soft ground, though they don’t need it.That was not what I heard after the race.
On the website Horse Racing 247, the article published on 27th July (The day after the Vintage Stakes) had the following segment regarding War Decree going forward:-
Where next?
On future targets Kevin Buckley, representing owners Coolmore, nominated the “Champagne Stakes or the National Stakes” as options for War Decree, and added: “given his pedigree, [a trip to the USA] is certainly a possibility.”That sounds very like they were planning at least one, and possibly two more runs. The other explanation would be that Kevin Buckley and Aidan O’Brien do not know what the other is thinking from one day to the next. Not great that they wouldn’t be on the same page.
The link to the webpage detailing Buckley’s statement is here:-
https://www.horseracing247.net/goodwood-war-decree-powers-home-in-vintage-stakes/
It’s Kevin Buckley’s role to talk up the horse, particularly when asked immediately after the race about future targets. It’s Aidan’s role to develop the horse, so I’d have more faith in what he said after the dust had settled. And indeed, the horse was put away. Then again, it could be a conspiracy, he went wrong after the race or very soon afterwards he showed very early signs of not training on, even as a 2yo, and they’ll announce soon that he’s a monster, and shortly after that, they’ll announce he’s retiring due to an injury
It’s Kevin Buckley’s role to talk up the horse, particularly when asked immediately after the race about future targets. It’s Aidan’s role to develop the horse, so I’d have more faith in what he said after the dust had settled. And indeed, the horse was put away. Then again, it could be a conspiracy, he went wrong after the race or very soon afterwards he showed very early signs of not training on, even as a 2yo, and they’ll announce soon that he’s a monster, and shortly after that, they’ll announce he’s retiring due to an injury
You are backtracking here. You said that Aidan ruled the horse out of any further runs “Immediately after the race”
That can’t be true. The spokesman would have looked a right dick if he had just contradicted what the trainer said.
I notice it took you a while to concoct this reply and it doesn’t wash.
I have produced the quote I read. It is there in black and white, dated and referable. Where is Aidan’s quote and the date it was published?
Aidan does a fine enough job of bigging up his horses, he does not need a spokesman for that.
I am trying to inform readers of the truth regarding what was said and when. The proof of the accuracy is there for all to see.
In any case this thread is about the Newmarket 2000 Guineas and the matter in hand was whether War Decree can win it. You have more or less admitted yourself that the horse will not run. So that is good enough for me to know that you accept my opinion that the horse is NOT a good bet for the race. Job done, truth told, truth verified by information provided. Where is your proof?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Backed Caravaggio antepost for te Coventry and Norfolk at Royal Ascot last year after his ridiculously quick time on soft ground in Ireland.
Been backing him for a long long time for the 2017 Guineas but backed off steadily the last 6/8 weeks after missing the Dewhurst and watching Churchill.
If Caravaggio is entered for sure and will run, I’ll take the risk that it stays. He looks and absolute machine though.
Going straight to the Guineas.
I’m in.
Is it non-runner no bet? It was said he may go to France.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
It’s Kevin Buckley’s role to talk up the horse, particularly when asked immediately after the race about future targets. It’s Aidan’s role to develop the horse, so I’d have more faith in what he said after the dust had settled. And indeed, the horse was put away. Then again, it could be a conspiracy, he went wrong after the race or very soon afterwards he showed very early signs of not training on, even as a 2yo, and they’ll announce soon that he’s a monster, and shortly after that, they’ll announce he’s retiring due to an injury
You are backtracking here. You said that Aidan ruled the horse out of any further runs “Immediately after the race”
That can’t be true. The spokesman would have looked a right dick if he had just contradicted what the trainer said.
I notice it took you a while to concoct this reply and it doesn’t wash.
I have produced the quote I read. It is there in black and white, dated and referable. Where is Aidan’s quote and the date it was published?
Aidan does a fine enough job of bigging up his horses, he does not need a spokesman for that.
I am trying to inform readers of the truth regarding what was said and when. The proof of the accuracy is there for all to see.
In any case this thread is about the Newmarket 2000 Guineas and the matter in hand was whether War Decree can win it. You have more or less admitted yourself that the horse will not run. So that is good enough for me to know that you accept my opinion that the horse is NOT a good bet for the race. Job done, truth told, truth verified by information provided. Where is your proof?
So you are accusing me of lying? And you’re making my mind up for me? I just have to say it, you are incredibly full of yourself. It’s unbelievable. It’s hilarious!
Ballydoyle must indeed find it difficult to keep their stories straight with all these conspiracies going on. Caravaggio disappearing last year because he hasn’t trained on. War Decree disappearing last year because he hasn’t trained on. Any more?
It’s Kevin Buckley’s role to talk up the horse, particularly when asked immediately after the race about future targets. It’s Aidan’s role to develop the horse, so I’d have more faith in what he said after the dust had settled. And indeed, the horse was put away. Then again, it could be a conspiracy, he went wrong after the race or very soon afterwards he showed very early signs of not training on, even as a 2yo, and they’ll announce soon that he’s a monster, and shortly after that, they’ll announce he’s retiring due to an injury
You are backtracking here. You said that Aidan ruled the horse out of any further runs “Immediately after the race”
That can’t be true. The spokesman would have looked a right dick if he had just contradicted what the trainer said.
I notice it took you a while to concoct this reply and it doesn’t wash.
I have produced the quote I read. It is there in black and white, dated and referable. Where is Aidan’s quote and the date it was published?
Aidan does a fine enough job of bigging up his horses, he does not need a spokesman for that.
I am trying to inform readers of the truth regarding what was said and when. The proof of the accuracy is there for all to see.
In any case this thread is about the Newmarket 2000 Guineas and the matter in hand was whether War Decree can win it. You have more or less admitted yourself that the horse will not run. So that is good enough for me to know that you accept my opinion that the horse is NOT a good bet for the race. Job done, truth told, truth verified by information provided. Where is your proof?
So you are accusing me of lying? And you’re making my mind up for me? I just have to say it, you are incredibly full of yourself. It’s unbelievable. It’s hilarious!
We can all say anything about what a trainer might have said. Without the proof it means nothing. I have proven that the statements I heard were indeed made. Without evidence it’s meaningless talk.
As to the other point, you have admitted that War Decree is unlikely to run at Newmarket. Anyone with the merest modicum of intelligence can work out that he can’t win it if he’s not running. If he is unlikely to run, he is unlikely to win. That’s fairly basic logic. A horse is not a good bet if it is unlikely to win. Anyone can see you are contradicting yourself here and getting in out of your depth in a logical argument where I am presenting evidence and reasoned thinking, while you are simply regurgitating myth and a childlike faith that the O’Brien team are infallible and every well bred horse they have is magic.
I am here to try to assist readers with observations and opinion on horses. It is there choice to either agree or disagree. A read back through Golden Horn’s Derby thread and my opinions on that race will show anyone that sometimes I get it correct to a very high level. The nature of the game means nobody is every even anywhere near getting it it right all the time but just occasionally a Derby Tricast and the exact winning margin are predicted well in advance. When you put a lot of studying and consideration into anything and are rewarded to the highest degree possible, it is reasonable to be proud of your effort I would say.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I never said War Decree wouldn’t run. My first mention of War Decree was to say that I could see Ballydoyle running three in the Guineas, Chuchill, Caravaggio and War Decree. They mentioned the French Guineas for him, but it was a passing remark by Aidan (in an interview at an Irish race meeting, I can’t produce written evidence for you unfortunately, though I have tried to find a write-up of it), and I can’t see him running at Deauville. Were Kevin Buckley’s remarks immediately after the race a firm commitment to running the horse in those races? Not running again doesn’t necessarily mean that the horse was injured or went wrong. Is it that farfetched to think that they chose to not run him again? Maybe they judged him to have gained sufficient experience, they had others to run in the big juvenile races. They have done it before, with Highland Reel, with Henrythenavigator. They didn’t hesitate to inform us of Caravaggio’s injury, or was that a cover for his apparent regression in the Phoenix Stakes? They can’t win, whether they declare a horse injured or not. I know that you seem to have a problem with Ballydoyle and begrudge them their success, imagining conspiracies all over the place, so I’ll try to not take all those insults personally
Sorry, I’d love to do this all night, but I have work in the morning. Talk to you tomorrow !
I back Ballydoyle horses when I see value. I had a reasonable sized bet on War Decree when he won the Vintage Stakes. I had a good bet on Caravaggio for the Coventry Stakes. Ruler Of The World was my main Derby bet in his year, having backed him at 25/1 just before the Chester meeting.
I have no problem backing their horse if the price is right. I backed Air Force Blue at 12/1 and then 10/1 for the 2000 Guineas last year but when I heard that they were putting the blinkers on, my heart sank and I felt obliged to warn people that it was a bad sign. Some people were concerned as well but most people seemed to see it as “Ballydoyle just covering all the bases”
In the end my fears were justified and I recommended that the horse had probably failed to train on. People disagreed and backed him the next couple of times, only to see him run like a drain each time. I sat back and hit the lay button until my finger bled, with the money left over from the elastoplast enough to buy a bottle of Jack Daniels and a 10kg bag of pork scratchings.
Going into the Vintage Stakes they should have had a pretty good idea as to whether that was the final run of the year for the horse or not. The spokesperson should have had a pretty good idea whether another race was planned and it would be highly odd to claim another couple of races were possible in the season, if the plan was pretty much that they would not run him again.
This is why it is important to know what Aidan said and when he said it in relation to Buckley’s statement. Was Buckley off the radar regarding plans? Was he lying to big the horse up? Did Aidan make the decision to change tack a good bit after Buckley’s statement? It then becomes a question of whether perhaps the race might have taken something out of the horse. He would not be the first colt to land the Vintage and then disappoint the following season.
Plenty has been said. I will wait to see how it unfolds. I have backed both colts in question successfully in the past, so there is no agenda from my side. I am neutral regarding stables and horses, it is purely an honest assessment of them looking forward and whether I feel they are value. Sometimes I am wrong and sometimes my concerns were justified.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, for definate AOB said that War Decree was more likely to be aimed at the French race than Newmarket. He said it on TV so quite sure it must of been straight after the race at Goodwood.
No interest in it at all and nothing to say they changed minds either after like. the reason i remember was i was thinking of backing him and after that never bothered.
Sorry, I’d love to do this all night, but I have work in the morning. Talk to you tomorrow !
Sunspangled, you seem like a pleasant, knowledgeable person to me. Do not even bother replying to this guy, My advice would be to just ignore him.
Dream Castle set to run at the Craven meeting says trainer
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Steve, for definate AOB said that War Decree was more likely to be aimed at the French race than Newmarket. He said it on TV so quite sure it must of been straight after the race at Goodwood.
No interest in it at all and nothing to say they changed minds either after like. the reason i remember was i was thinking of backing him and after that never bothered.
Thanks for the info Botchy. The point of the thread is to find the winner of the 2000 Guineas. If War Decree is going to France then he’s not a good bet for the Guineas.
My sole concern is if Aidan said after the race that War Decree was not running again that season, then why did the spokesman say he had a choice of Irish races and hinted strongly that the Breeders Cup seemed to be on the agenda? That isn’t a very professional way for any outfit to operate, it comes across as amateurish and it does nothing whatsoever to help punters make informed decisions.
People are free to back War Decree for the 2000 Guineas if they wish, I am only offering my feelings on whether he is a good bet or not.
There is no need whatever to accuse anyone of conspiracy theories. I am simply applying more than 35 years of Racing experience and passing on the conclusions that previous scenarios have led me to reach.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Sorry, I’d love to do this all night, but I have work in the morning. Talk to you tomorrow !
Sunspangled, you seem like a pleasant, knowledgeable person to me. Do not even bother replying to this guy, My advice would be to just ignore him.
That’s the best piece of advice on this thread. If you are interested in something you should read it. If you are not, don’t read it.
Plenty of people ignore me. People ignored me when I recommended Many Clouds at 40/1 when he won the Grand National. Plenty also ignored me when I recommended Galileo Gold as the best value in the 2000 Guineas last season, when the horse was 40/1.
Ignore away.
Nobody is correct or wrong until declarations are made and/or the races are run. We will see.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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