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I’m not sure that there is an issue with Scat Daddy’s progeny training on. Last year he had 17 black type winners, 13 of whom were 3yo+ (and the remaining 4 2yo winners still have a chance to prove themselves as 3yo+). No Nay Never failed to win the BC Turf Sprint by just 1/2L. Acapulco is now in training with Aidan O’Brien, so they must have hopes for her as a 4yo. Daddy Long Legs did train on to perform well in the early part of his 3yo season, whatever may have happened to him subsequently. Caravaggio and Lady Aurelia have yet to run as 3yos. That accounts for all the Scat Daddies of note this side of the pond.
Regarding Caravaggio and the 2000 Guineas, I see a Scat Daddy colt out of a Holy Bull mare (same breeding as Caravaggio) won a stakes race over a mile at the weekend having made his debut over 5f last August. So, can be done!Each to their own beliefs, I am going against them regarding UK Classics, as I have done successfully up to now,
I didn’t realise a Scat Daddy had run in a UK classic? What have I missed?
Oh dear, the dreaded last resort of the lazy forumite. SARCASM
Only giving my opinions here. Don’t like them? Move on! Simple
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Just pointing where your stated belief was incorrect
I’m sorry (not) if that hurt. As always, others are entitled to their opinions, and you don’t have to respond. And back to calling people names again and getting personal, and sarcastic youself. Tut tut.But rather than spoil the forum for others, I’m sure I can ignore you if you can ignore me
But rather than spoil the forum for others, I’m sure I can ignore you if you can ignore me
Just pointing where your stated belief was incorrect
Where?
My belief is that Caravaggio will not win the 2000 Guineas and that he is poor value for the Commonwealth Cup.
That will not be known until the races are run. It’s best to wait for that to happen before shouting the odds.
We had Douglas MacArthur last season. I did not feel he was impressive in his maiden but he went favourite for the Derby. I opposed him next time with Landfall at 20/1 and despite the Irish commentators hyping Douglas MacArthur up and stating that “Aiden says he’s got an engine”, we all watched as the unheralded Landfall tore him a new ass.
That’s the ultimate pay off in this game, going against a hotpot put there by suicidal lemmings and lifting the cash to show that you were correct in your opinion.
Some people had the good grace to applaud my thinking, but there will always be petty jealousies on any forum. I’ll settle for the reverberating echo of the last laugh and the cash in pocket
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Lancaster Bomber seems quite weak in the betting for the UAE Derby. He is out to 9/1 with several firms.
I was a bit surprised that Timeform don’t rate Thunder Snow as worth a place in their 1-2-3 race preview. They cite his bad draw in box 13 as making life tough for the favourite.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
the dreaded last resort of the lazy forumite. SARCASM
I don’t know Steve, I like to get in an early blow now and again and use sarcasm as a first resort
Blackbeard to conquer the World
But rather than spoil the forum for others, I’m sure I can ignore you if you can ignore me
Just pointing where your stated belief was incorrect
Where?
My belief is that Caravaggio will not win the 2000 Guineas and that he is poor value for the Commonwealth Cup.
That will not be known until the races are run. It’s best to wait for that to happen before shouting the odds.
We had Douglas MacArthur last season. I did not feel he was impressive in his maiden but he went favourite for the Derby. I opposed him next time with Landfall at 20/1 and despite the Irish commentators hyping Douglas MacArthur up and stating that “Aiden says he’s got an engine”, we all watched as the unheralded Landfall tore him a new ass.
That’s the ultimate pay off in this game, going against a hotpot put there by suicidal lemmings and lifting the cash to show that you were correct in your opinion.
Some people had the good grace to applaud my thinking, but there will always be petty jealousies on any forum. I’ll settle for the reverberating echo of the last laugh and the cash in pocket
Just to clarify a point, your ‘belief’ that was incorrect was that you had successfully gone against Scat Daddies in the UK classics, and I was merely pointing out that none had ever run in the UK classics. None have ever been seriously considered for a UK classic, we are talking about a pool of three Scat Daddies here, Acapulco, No Nay Never and Daddy Long Legs.
Again, with the personal attacks, I’m not jealous of anyone. But I’m not into mindlessly applauding anyone either. I very rarely bet, I enjoy the horses and the horse racing for what they are, beautiful animals and a great sport.
Just to clarify a point, your ‘belief’ that was incorrect was that you had successfully gone against Scat Daddies in the UK classics, and I was merely pointing out that none had ever run in the UK classics. None have ever been seriously considered for a UK classic, we are talking about a pool of three Scat Daddies here, Acapulco, No Nay Never and Daddy Long Legs.
Again, with the personal attacks, I’m not jealous of anyone. But I’m not into mindlessly applauding anyone either. I very rarely bet, I enjoy the horses and the horse racing for what they are, beautiful animals and a great sport.
You are not taking my point of view on board correctly. It is not about Scat Daddy in particular but the type of sire he is. These US bred horses are often about early success at 2yo and not 3yo contenders. It doesn’t stop them being quoted at silly odds for the Classics but I have always opposed them and never had to regret it thus far.
Regarding none ever having been seriously considered for a Classic, that just isn’t true. Caravaggio was the Guineas favourite at one stage and he is still second favourite, so the point is still very much relevant. I have heard people who still fancy him for the race, and I know of people who felt No Nay Never could win the race.
The media were getting plenty carried away regarding Scat Daddy last season and how he might suddenly have been siring horses who could go to the Classics. My input was/is designed to provide an alternative and perhaps more pragmatic viewpoint.
You may not bet often, but other people on this forum do and it is with them in mind that I offer my opinions. I like everyone else, am wrong more often than correct, the odds ensure that this is the case. I can watch races with or without a bet, so long as the race is interesting and provides an opportunity to apply your experience and analysis in the search for the winner.
Having been the first person to mention Caravaggio on this forum and having recommended him as a Royal Ascot winner in waiting, I clearly have no reason to oppose the horse other than my belief that he is unlikely to win this 2000 Guineas based on the factors I have already given. It is up to readers to agree or disagree with that opinion.
Once the race is run, we will know who was correct and whether laying the horse was the call or not.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m afraid I can’t take a point of view that’s not expressed. If you say Scat Daddy, I can’t be inspired to know that you are talking about US sires in general. For my part, I believe that Scat Daddies do train on, which started this whole discussion as far as I’m concerned, there is no evidence that they don’t train on (five 3yo+ black type winners this year already). War Front is a different matter, but the cross with European mares may help, and maybe a lighter 2yo campaign.
I don’t think Caravaggio will run in the Guineas, have always thought it unlikely, it has always been fairly obvious that he’s unlikely to get a mile. And indeed, they don’t need to run him in the Guineas, they have Churchill, who is a much more likely winner. And Aidan has always been lukewarm on running Caravaggio in the Guineas, even before Churchill stated his case so well in the Dewhurst. But I look forward to seeing Caravaggio versus Blue Point in the Commonwealth Cup.I think connections will be very happy with LB’s run considering the ground today and hopefully they now aim him at Newmarket. The stumble coming out of the stalls ruined any chance to get to the front but still only beaten 2 lengths in the end.
Faster ground and a straight course should suit him a lot more more.It wont be a surprise to see him improve quite a bit from that run next time out.
I actually thought Lancaster Bomber was a bit disappointing. He seemed to struggle most of the way for the pace to get involved. He stayed on quite well looking like taking third but faded into 4th late on.
Corals go 40/1 for him in the 2000 Guineas and I wouldn’t take that. Aidan said he was pleased with the run but he always says that. He was even pleased with Highland Reel,who was last but whom he feels will come on for the race. Sadly that’s little consolation for those who backed him at 5/2 yesterday and watched him go out like a light.
If Aidan has to rely on Lancaster Bomber for the 2000 Guineas, I feel he would need to have problems elsewhere with his string. Bet Victor at 16/1 for the 2000 Guineas looks a joke price when double those odds is readily available.
Surely Aidan has better candidates for Newmarket?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, the ground was Soft on the Turf and Muddy on the Dirt, which means they were the opposite of the ideal conditions for both horses who both need fast ground. Best to just put a line through the race for both of them in my opinion.
It will be a long old season and the Flat has not even started yet.
Steve, the ground was Soft on the Turf and Muddy on the Dirt, which means they were the opposite of the ideal conditions for both horses who both need fast ground. Best to just put a line through the race for both of them in my opinion.
It will be a long old season and the Flat has not even started yet.
I have taken that into consideration. It didn’t stop both horses being well backed on the day.
I don’t think Lancaster Bomber will run in the 2000 Guineas and all the trends tell you that horses with Lancaster Bomber’s profile don’t win 2000 Guineas races.
Feel free to back him, I am not guaranteeing that he won’t win it. However, I will lay him until the cows come home. For all the placed form, Lancaster Bomber’s only win was in a maiden race. That type of horse has not won a Guineas since?
I’ll lay him to 10/1 a place and not be concerned at all. My point here is purely to advise against poor bets and that is all. It’s nothing personal. Do you really feel Corals would be offering 40/1 if they thought he had a chance? I am sure they employ better people than me to keep them right.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
That type of horse has not won a Guineas since?
Mark of Esteem 96
Kings Best 98
Golan 2001
Cockney Rebel 2007I think Nashwan was only a maiden winner also.So it is not impossible
I am not saying LB will win the Guineas but if he runs and it is fast ground his form at the moment under the right conditions does not make him a 40-1 shot. In fact i could only put for certain Churchill in front of him.
All about opinions, but good luck with your season ahead
Bet Victor at 16/1 for the 2000 Guineas looks a joke price when double those odds is readily available.
That’s very, very interesting that Steve about BV ducking LB @ 16’s.
Regarding Carravaggio he could be going for a 7F race at Dundalk in April
Interesting that they’re stepping him up to 7f, but not necessarily indicative that they’ll be sending him to the Guineas as Washington DC won that race last year and has been kept over sprint distances ever since. I’d expect the Aidan is planning a similar route for Caravaggio, with his main targets being the Commonwealth Cup, Nunthorpe, Abbaye, BC Turf Sprint etc.
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