20 best horses not to win the Epsom Derby

Harshthakor’s thread on the 20 best Epsom Derby winners inspires the q of who was the best horse to NOT win the Derby.

Nick Mordin outlined a fairly basic system in his book Winning without Thinking a no. of years ago based around horses who had run in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and finished within a certain percentile of the winner, top 10 or so. He suggested a system to note those who qualify under that criteria in x no. (< 3) of their subsequent starts the following season once entering the novice hurdle division and facing a potentially less demanding set of circumstances.
The theory being there was reason to assume some level of underlying ability had been shown either in home work or on the track to be considered of the quality to be aimed at the festival and be aimed at a division where there are a limited no. of G1 opportunities across the calendar and which as a consequence would be presumably highly competitive.
The demanding nature of the track, sub optimal distance of the race, timing of the race in the horses career, racing potentially more forward horses and the occasion were noted as factors for a potential lack of performance in the race, factors not totally removed from those which could be noted for an under performance in the Derby

From memory the basic system returned a slight edge (or better) however without running the no’s I presume this has been eroded somewhat/totally over time. The concept is interesting however and hints at the root of positive ev betting, namely assessing a performance which is potentially underrated

For info, subsequent Group 1 winners to NOT win the Derby when looking back over the last 30 years are below. Dylan Thomas and Dubai Millenium would initially have sprung spring to mind however it is an interesting list nonetheless

2019
3rd: Japan – Grand Prix de Paris (2019), International Stakes (2019)
6th: Circus Maximus – St James’s Palace Stakes (2019), Prix du Moulin (2019)
10th: Sovereign – Irish Derby (2019)

2018
3rd: Roaring Lion – Eclipse Stakes (2018), International Stakes (2018), Irish Champion Stakes (2018), Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (2018)
9th: Kew Gardens – Grand Prix de Paris (2018), St Leger (2018)

2017
3rd: Cracksman – Champion Stakes (2017, 2018), Prix Ganay (2018), Coronation Cup (2018)
5th: Benbatl – Dubai Turf (2018), Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (2018), Ladbrokes Stakes (2018)
6th: Capri – Irish Derby (2017), St Leger (2017)
8th: Best Solution – Grosser Preis von Berlin (2018), Grosser Preis von Baden (2018), Caulfield Cup (2018)
16th: Rekindling – Melbourne Cup (2017)

2016
8th: Cloth of Stars – Prix Ganay (2017)
11th: Deauville – Belmont Derby (2016)
12th: Ulysses – Eclipse Stakes (2017), International Stakes (2017)

2015
2nd: Jack Hobbs – Irish Derby (2015), Sheema Classic (2017)

2014
2nd: Kingston Hill – St. Leger Stakes (2014)
8th: Fascinating Rock – Champion Stakes (2015)

2013
12th: Dawn Approach – St. James’s Palace Stakes (2013)

2012
2nd: Main Sequence – United Nations Stakes (2014), Sword Dancer Invitational Handicap (2014), Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes (2014), Breeders’ Cup Turf (2014)

2011
2nd: Treasure Beach – Irish Derby (2011), Secretariat Stakes (2011)
8th: Masked Marvel – St. Leger Stakes (2011)

2010
3rd: Rewilding – Dubai Sheema Classic (2011), Prince of Wales’s Stakes (2011)
8th: Buzzword – Deutsches Derby (2010)

2009
2nd: Fame and Glory – Irish Derby (2009), Tattersalls Gold Cup (2010), Coronation Cup (2010), Ascot Gold Cup (2011)
4th: Rip Van Winkle – Sussex Stakes (2009), Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (2009), International Stakes (2010)
8th: Debussy – Arlington Million (2010)

2008
3rd: Casual Conquest – Tattersalls Gold Cup (2009)
11th: Frozen Fire – Irish Derby (2008)

2007
2nd: Eagle Mountain – Hong Kong Cup (2008)
4th: Lucarno – St. Leger (2007)
5th: Soldier of Fortune – Irish Derby (2007), Coronation Cup (2008)
6th: Salford Mill (renamed Helene Mascot) – Hong Kong Classic Mile (2008), Hong Kong Derby (2008)
17th: Archipenko – Queen Elizabeth II Cup (2008)

2006
3rd: Dylan Thomas – Irish Derby (2006), Irish Champion Stakes (2006, 2007), Prix Ganay (2007), King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2007), Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2007)
7th: Sixties Icon – St. Leger (2006)
12th: Septimus – Irish St. Leger (2008)

2005
3rd: Dubawi – Prix Jacques Le Marois (2005)
10th: Oratorio – Eclipse Stakes (2005), Irish Champion Stakes (2005)

2004
2nd: Rule of Law – St. Leger (2004)

2003
3rd: Alamshar – Irish Derby (2003), King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2003)
9th: Magistretti – Man o’ War Stakes (2004)
13th: Refuse to Bend – Queen Anne Stakes (2004), Eclipse Stakes (2004)
16th: Brian Boru – St. Leger (2003)

2002
2nd: Hawk Wing – Eclipse Stakes (2002), Lockinge Stakes (2003)
3rd: Moon Ballad – Dubai World Cup (2003)
6th: Where or When – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (2002)

2001
2nd: Golan – King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2002)
5th: Storming Home – Champion Stakes (2002), Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship (2003)

2000
2nd: Sakhee – International Stakes (2001), Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (2001)
3rd: Beat Hollow – Grand Prix de Paris (2000), Woodford Reserve Turf Classic (2002), Manhattan Handicap (2002), Arlington Million (2002)
4th: Best of the Bests – Prix d’Ispahan (2002)

1999:
2nd: Daliapour – Coronation Cup (2000), Hong Kong Vase (2000)
4th: Housemaster – Hong Kong Champions & Chater Cup (2000)
8th: Compton Admiral – Eclipse Stakes (1999)
9th: Dubai Millennium – Prix Jacques Le Marois (1999), Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (1999), Dubai World Cup (2000), Prince of Wales’s Stakes (2000)
11th: Val Royal – Breeders’ Cup Mile (2001)

1998:
4th: Sunshine Street – San Juan Capistrano Handicap (2000)
5th: Greek Dance – Bayerisches Zuchtrennen (2000)
13th: Mutamam – Canadian International Stakes (2001)

1997:
2nd: Silver Patriarch – St. Leger (1997), Coronation Cup (1998), Gran Premio del Jockey Club (1998)
11th: Single Empire – San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap (1999)

1996:
3rd: Shantou – St. Leger (1996), Gran Premio del Jockey Club (1996), Gran Premio di Milano (1997)
9th: Chief Contender – Prix du Cadran (1997)
15th: Storm Trooper – Hollywood Invitational Turf Handicap (1998)

1995:
5th: Court of Honour – Gran Premio del Jockey Club (1995)
13th: Spectrum – Champion Stakes (1995)

1994:
2nd: King’s Theatre – King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (1994)
19th: Sunshack – Prix Royal-Oak (1995)
21st: Broadway Flyer – Sword Dancer Invitational Handicap (1996)

1993:
5th: Barathea – Breeders’ Cup Mile (1994)
6th: Bob’s Return – St. Leger (1993)

1992:
2nd: St Jovite – Irish Derby (1992), King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (1992)
4th: Muhtarram – Irish Champion Stakes (1993), Premio Presidente della Repubblica (1994)
8th: Great Palm – Premio Presidente della Repubblica (1993)
9th: Rodrigo de Triano – International Stakes (1992), Champion Stakes (1992)
13th: Assessor – Prix Royal-Oak (1992), Prix du Cadran (1993)

1991:
2nd : Marju – St. James’s Palace Stakes (1991)
4th : Hector Protector – Prix Jacques Le Marois (1991)
9th : Toulon – St. Leger (1991)
11th Environment Friend – Eclipse Stakes (1991)

1990:
3rd: Elmaamul – Eclipse Stakes (1990), Phoenix Champion Stakes (1990)
7th: Zoman – Prix d’Ispahan (1992), Washington, D.C. International Stakes (1992)
18th: Mr Brooks – July Cup (1992), Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp (1992)