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20-1 shot at Great Leighs – £15,000 queing up at 25-1

Home Forums Horse Racing 20-1 shot at Great Leighs – £15,000 queing up at 25-1

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  • #8880
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    Am I just being sceptical here or is this ridiculously good inside knowledge that has prompted a bet of this size?

    The horse actually won in the end beating Godolphin’s £9.2m horse at Great Leighs.

    Crazy

    #181550
    Avatar photosberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1800

    That bet is more than the winner cost. Perhaps Plavius may make a better career at trotting, with those little buggy things behind the horses?

    #181551
    halfwaytoheaven
    Member
    • Total Posts 1387

    That bet is more than the winner cost. Perhaps Plavius may make a better career at trotting, with those little buggy things behind the horses?

    Haha maybe – will Plavius ever win a race? This one seemed set up for Plavius

    #181559
    Avatar photosberry
    Member
    • Total Posts 1800

    To be fair, Plavius tanked the Maktoum $3.1million purchase Mutawahej and also soundly beat some other very expensive and well bred horses.

    However, there was nothing in the race with any rating of any sort and while the time was 1.5 seconds slower than another Godolphin horse – Eddie Jock – won a race there earlier in the week, which might sound okay considering Eddie Jock is rated 110, the time Plavius probably finished today’s race in might just have secured him the class 6 handicap which was the next race up, though his rating puts him over half a stone too high for that race.

    I’m afraid it’s looking like Plavius pie to me, I can’t see the stamina in the pedigree to justify sending him to Paul Nicholls.

    #181560
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17716

    Steak and chips and a trip to barbados for Tactful backers. This is a prime case of becoming minted with inside information.

    #181561
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Steak and chips and a trip to barbados for Tactful backers. This is a prime case of becoming minted with inside information.

    Was the money actually matched? I doubt it. I notice there’s not a thread for the £16K that was queued up to back Civitas Filius at 30+ in the last at Great Leighs that got beaten.

    #181562
    Venusian
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1665

    A gigantic overround as well, 141%.

    Is there any aspect of this course which isn’t a rip-off?

    #181571
    Neil Watson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1376

    Let me get this right.

    A horse owned by Godolphin and cost $9.2 Million got beaten at a tinpot track like Great Leighs.

    And Sheikh Mohammed wants to according to what the newspaper have written buy Newcastle United.

    Bring it on i say, Should be quite interesting to see.

    #181685
    Avatar photorory
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2685

    Steak and chips and a trip to barbados for Tactful backers. This is a prime case of becoming minted with inside information.

    No it isn’t.

    It’s just as likely a case of someone spunking several million up the wall in a huge punting spree. Figures of £10k plus have been appearing in normally low liquidity markets of late with the result that punters on Betfair have speculated that this must be someone "in the know" and running scared. A look at the results shows that these punts are really quite random. There are simply punters out there who are happy to throw huge sums around, although whether that happiness continues in the long term I don’t know.

    I met a punter at Ascot this year who bet entirely from a mathematical model without any racing knowledge and was happy to risk up to 50k per race. He didn’t know one jockey or trainer from another but his algorithms were top-notch, and yet he will be labelled as someone making money from inside info simply because of the size of his stakes.

    If someone lays 6 favs on US racing for 10k a time and two out of six lose, he’s probably had a shocker, but the chances are the two losers will be greeted by cries of "someone knew!" or "that race was completely bent" despite the punters involved clearly seeing the lays which have gone astray. If it wasn’t so tragic, it would be funny.

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