December 3, 2020 at 11:40 #1512872
PLENTY IN THE TANK 28/1 bet365
5 of the 9 runners look to have little realistic chance here and are priced at 66/1 plus.
There are 3 horses at single figure odds (fav 8/15 on) and then there is PLENTY IN THE TANK who looks well worth an ew bet at theses odds and may well end up winning this race.
Olly Murphy has a 40% winning strike rate with his hurdlers at Leicester (4/10 last 5 years) which makes this an interesting runner on its own. His horses are running well and he had a winner yesterday and a winner the day before. Of the 7 runners he has so far ran in December only 2 of the 7 were unplaced.
A decent conditional jockey has been booked who has already rode a winner at Leicester and has an impressive 14% winning strike rate when riding hurdlers. He takes off a useful 3lb and has already ridden 37 winners when booked by Olly Murphy at an impressive 19% strike rate for this trainer.
Plenty In The Tank won on his rules debut last season at Chepstow in a bumper and then switched to Murphy. He is obviously held in some regard as he was sent off the 11/10 fav on his hurdles debut for this yard in October. Unfortunately he broke a blood vessel and bled from the nose which offers an explanation for the poor run and it’s fair to rule out that run and no doubt he is much better than he was able to show on that occasion.
Obviously you need to be slightly wary with a horse who broke a blood vessel last time but he has been given time to recover from that and at the odds looks well worth chancing here. As his trainer wouldn’t be running him if he didn’t think he was ready now.
I’m writing off the big priced horses here (perhaps foolishly time will tell) but he only needs to beat 1 of the first 3 in the market to land a nice ew and he could easily end up winning.
Elysian Flame is only a 4yo and could be vulnerable here against his elders. M Easterby has ran 14 horses in t he last 2 weeks and they all ran badly and were unplaced so it’s easily perceivable that this one could be unplaced.
Mr Grey Sky was unbeaten in 2 bumper runs but has been a disappointment so far in his 2 hurdles runs being unplaced both times at odds of 10/11 and 2/1 and it’s unlikely this drop back in trip will help and he has been hard to settle so far. If he disappoints again then that potentially only leaves the favourite to beat.
One True King is odds on and rightfully so and could prove hard to beat but certainly isn’t bullet proof. He won his novice hurdle and has since ran well when 2nd in 2 Cheltenham handicaps. That experience will serve him well back in novice company and clearly makes him the horse to beat. He does however carry a penalty back in novice company and with my jockeys 3lb claim we are getting 9lb from the favourite which could make things interesting today.
Looks well worth an Ew interest on the Olly Murphy horse at 28/1 and could quite easily prove too good for all of these. Alternatively he may break another blood vessel and tail off last but at the odds looks worth taking a chance on.December 3, 2020 at 11:48 #1512875Venture to CognacModerator
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Always interesting shouts Robbo, good luckDecember 3, 2020 at 12:01 #1512878
Thank you Venture I have updated my original post with my reasoning now.December 3, 2020 at 12:16 #1512883
He has been a bit of a drifter throughout the day probably due to the rain turning the ground soft. His sire Champs Elysees are generally best on faster ground but they do have a 17% win strike rate on soft so it’s perfectly plausible that he could handle it ok and the sires offspring have a nice win to run ratio in NH.
The owner Diana Wheatley has done well with her 6 runners at this track winning with 2 of her 6 runners here.December 3, 2020 at 12:45 #1512887
Good winner for Olly Murphy in Leicester’s opening hurdles race bringing his tally to 5 wins from 11 hurdles races at the track in the last 5 years.
Fingers crossed he can make it 6 from 12 in the next and get an on the day double up. Now why didn’t I back that one 😂
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