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Reply To: Systems Building

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#43946
dave jay
Member
  • Total Posts 3386

Hi stephen12000 and welcome to the forum.

The example below shows a losing run of 11 and a break even situation, but the plan still returns a profit of £172 after turning over £2988. In real terms this is a profit of 6% on investment.

The Target and Divisor should be looked at together and not independantly from one another. The Divisor is the sum total of all of the system’s winning SP’s divided by the number of them. In this case the average price is 3/1 (meaning that the system will have a 25% strike rate if it breaks even from the; calculation 1 / 3+1 = 0.25). By doubling this to 6 there should be 1.5 winners in every 6 bets from the calculation; 6 / 100 x 25 = 1.5.

Therefore, the plans aim is to stake 1% of the bank at the first bet, so the Target figure is 1% of the bank multiplied by the divisor, for the first bet, which in this case is £100. The second bet is the Target plus the lost stakes from the first bet divided by the divisor, which in this case is £115. The stakes are then increased in this way until there are six consequetive losers when the safety devise is kicked in and the divisor then goes to seven.

So, the Target figure, is not my target profit, as such, but the figure used to control my stake value in relation to previous losses and starting stake of 1% of the betting bank.

The profits from the staking plan are counted every time the bank goes above it’s original starting value. When you take profit is entirely up to the individual, you may decide to lock profits into the plan and build your starting bank, taking profits yearly, or skim the bank monthly and put any profit in your pocket.

I hope that explains things a little more clearly.