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Reply To: Systems Building

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dave jay
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That’s a good post snowman!

You make a very valid point about losing streaks here is a staking plan I would like you (and others) to take a look at. I’ve had this one for a while and it was posted earlier this year in ‘Gummy Racing’. It’s not there any more. Personally speaking, this is one of my favourite staking plans and can be very useful when assessing results data.

‘The Retirement Staking Plan’

This plan is based on the SP of the winners thrown up by any system that produces level stakes profit.

To set up this staking plan you have to do the following:<br>

  • <br>
  • Calculate the Average Price of your previous winners.<br>
  • Calculate a Divisor.<br>
  • Invest a regular percentage of your bank.<br>
  • Set a reasonable target.<br>

<br>Firstly, calculate the average price of your previous winners. You will need at least 50 winners to get this figure.

Add together the return SP figures and divide the total by the number of winners. Such as:<br>7/4 + 4/1 + 5/1……<br>1.75 + 4 + 5……………<br>I always deduct the two highest and two lowest SP returns to ensure the Average Price is not skewed by fluke results.

This is the key to this plan because this determines, the divisor and when to bring in your safety device.

Let’s say that the average price is 3/1.

The best way to show you this plan is in the table below. Firstly, we have a divisor, which is double the average starting price winner of the system you are using. So, if the average price winner is 3/1 then the divisor will be 6.

We have a divisor of six and the first bet will be 1% of the bank.

Now to establish a target, multiply the divisor by your first bet, 6 x 100 = 600. So your divisor is six, target 600, first bet 100, which is 1% of your bank, all losses are added to your target, and if you go six without a winner, then you start to increase your divisor by one after each losing bet.

This is what happens after a run of losses:

DIV   Targ     Bet   P/Loss   Result    Bank<br>6       600      100   -100       L           9900<br>6       700      115   -115       L           9785<br>6       815      135   -135       L           9650<br>6       950      158   -158       L           9492<br>6       1108    185   -185       L           9307<br>6       1293    215   -215       L           9092<br>7       1508    215   -215       L           8877<br>8       1723    215   -215       L           8622<br>9        1938   215   -215       L           8447<br>10     2153    215   -215       L           8232<br>11     2368    215   -215       L           8017<br>12     2583    215    +860    W4/1     8877<br>8       1723    215    -215      L           8662<br>9       1938    215    -215      L           8447<br>10     2153    215    1290     W6/1     9737<br>6       863      145    435       W3/1    10172

As you can see, losses were added to the target, and when we went to six without a winner, we increased the divisor, if you do not the bets get out of hand and jeopardise the bank.

If you look at the bank after six losers 9092, it could still withstand another 42 losses without a winner. That’s not because we started with a bank of 10,000, it would be the same if your bank was 1,000, as your first bet would be £10 instead of £100. This plan can go for 48 bets without a winner.

So, back to the table. After the 4/1 winner, the target is reduced from 2583 to 1723. You look back then to where you were in the staking plan  were your target amount was close to this figure. You see that your divisor was 8 and start staking again from this part in the plan.

I normally, skim the bank when it goes into profit and track the staking plan’s progress from a table, rather than getting all technical at every bet.

(If anyone doesn’t know how to set this up in their ‘spreadsheet’ on the pc. send me a PM and I’ll give you the details).

What I like about this plan.

IMO this is better than level stakes because it acknowlegdes the fact that any system is subject to losing runs.

It is good for calculating your longest losing run. As in the example above the average price was 3/1, this means that the system must have a strike rate of 25%. I reckon that you should look at losing runs as being twice the size of two losing frequencies in ten, before your in trouble.

In this case 2.5 win in ten and 7.5 lose.

So my losing frequency is 7.5 (x2) = 15.

Well, that’s what I think anyway! And Look forward to your critique!

All the best for the New Year snowman and all of the pals in the systems workshop!