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#43943
dave jay
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• Total Posts 3386

That’s a good post snowman!

You make a very valid point about losing streaks here is a staking plan I would like you (and others) to take a look at. I’ve had this one for a while and it was posted earlier this year in ‘Gummy Racing’. It’s not there any more. Personally speaking, this is one of my favourite staking plans and can be very useful when assessing results data.

‘The Retirement Staking Plan’

This plan is based on the SP of the winners thrown up by any system that produces level stakes profit.

To set up this staking plan you have to do the following:<br>

• <br>
• Calculate the Average Price of your previous winners.<br>
• Calculate a Divisor.<br>
• Invest a regular percentage of your bank.<br>
• Set a reasonable target.<br>

<br>Firstly, calculate the average price of your previous winners. You will need at least 50 winners to get this figure.

Add together the return SP figures and divide the total by the number of winners. Such as:<br>7/4 + 4/1 + 5/1……<br>1.75 + 4 + 5……………<br>I always deduct the two highest and two lowest SP returns to ensure the Average Price is not skewed by fluke results.

This is the key to this plan because this determines, the divisor and when to bring in your safety device.

Let’s say that the average price is 3/1.

The best way to show you this plan is in the table below. Firstly, we have a divisor, which is double the average starting price winner of the system you are using. So, if the average price winner is 3/1 then the divisor will be 6.

We have a divisor of six and the first bet will be 1% of the bank.

Now to establish a target, multiply the divisor by your first bet, 6 x 100 = 600. So your divisor is six, target 600, first bet 100, which is 1% of your bank, all losses are added to your target, and if you go six without a winner, then you start to increase your divisor by one after each losing bet.

This is what happens after a run of losses:

DIV Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Targ Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Bet Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  P/Loss Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Result Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Bank<br>6 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  600 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 100 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -100 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  9900<br>6 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  700 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 115 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -115 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  9785<br>6 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  815 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 135 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -135 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  9650<br>6 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  950 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 158 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -158 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  9492<br>6 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  1108 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 185 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -185 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  9307<br>6 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  1293 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  9092<br>7 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  1508 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  8877<br>8 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  1723 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  8622<br>9 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1938 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  8447<br>10 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  2153 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 8232<br>11 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  2368 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  -215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  8017<br>12 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  2583 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â +860 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â W4/1 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  8877<br>8 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  1723 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â -215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  8662<br>9 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  1938 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â -215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â L Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  8447<br>10 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  2153 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 215 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 1290 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  W6/1 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  9737<br>6 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  863 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 145 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 435 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  W3/1 Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â  Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â 10172

As you can see, losses were added to the target, and when we went to six without a winner, we increased the divisor, if you do not the bets get out of hand and jeopardise the bank.

If you look at the bank after six losers 9092, it could still withstand another 42 losses without a winner. That’s not because we started with a bank of 10,000, it would be the same if your bank was 1,000, as your first bet would be Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£10 instead of Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â£100. This plan can go for 48 bets without a winner.

So, back to the table. After the 4/1 winner, the target is reduced from 2583 to 1723. You look back then to where you were in the staking plan Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â were your target amount was close to this figure. You see that your divisor was 8 and start staking again from this part in the plan.

I normally, skim the bank when it goes into profit and track the staking plan’s progress from a table, rather than getting all technical at every bet.

(If anyone doesn’t know how to set this up in their ‘spreadsheet’ on the pc. send me a PM and I’ll give you the details).