The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Reply To: VAN DER WHEIL

Home Forums Tipping and Research Systems VAN DER WHEIL Reply To: VAN DER WHEIL

#42686
dave jay
Member
  • Total Posts 3386

VDW Conclusions – Part Three.<br>Analysis of the Staking Plan……….and my final analysis of the how the bank works and what it represents. The staking plan being the key to the whole method.<br>As you rightly pointed out Robert the Staking Plan I had posted up earlier appears to be illogical. To the point of being almost meaningless (which you so kindly didn’t say), the stakes are low and the profits marginal. There is also no turnover of working Bank capital.<br>So to proceed from there……….<br>You are right of course to assume that you can calculate your average strike rate and SP and then calculate your stakes from that………..

This is the calculation for the above system.<br>It is worth noting that in reality prices will be much shorter than those shown in the examples.<br>For betting on two horses in the same race……<br>Add both fractions to one another and multiply the sum by the other horses fraction divisor.<br>So, example A<br>Horse A 2/1 = (2 + 1)*1 = 3<br>Horse B 3/1 = (3 + 1)*1 = 4<br>Stake<br>Horse A @ 2/1: 4 points to win, returns 2 x 4 = 8 – 3 = 5<br>Horse B @ 3/1: 3 points to win, returns 3 x 3 = 9 – 4 = 5<br>Odds, stakes = 7 points / to win = 5 points.<br>5/7 = .714 = true odds 8/11<br>Or, example B<br>Horse A 2/1 = (2 + 1)*2 = 6<br>Horse B 7/2 = (7 + 2)*1 = 9<br>Stake<br>Horse A @ 2/1: 9 points to win, returns 2 x 9 = 18 – 6 = 12<br>Horse B @ 7/2: 6 points to win, returns 3.5 x 6 = 21 – 9 = 12<br>Odds, stakes = 15 points / to win = 12 points.<br>12/15 = .8 = true odds 4/5

Staking Plan<br>The staking shown on my earlier post suits these prices, level stakes profit?, 10% recovery from the first loser.<br>The staking plan can also be used for betting favourites of a similar price as those shown in the examples, above.

Combined selections versus single selections.<br>(8/11 vs 8/11 (57.6%))<br>Two horse bets have an advantage over one horse bets and this can be expressed in the following manner.<br>One probability is generated by one chance of occurrence the other from two chances of occurrence. Putting it simply, this means that both things will occur the same amount of times but the probability generated by two chances will occur more consistently. In betting terms this means you will get shorter losing runs.<br>This is what convinces me that the system developed was correct, or a variation on the theme.

An 80% Strike Rate – And a Word of Warning.<br>The only way I know of achieving an 80% strike rate is by covering to win on a series of bets staked as above, which is not to be recommended by anyone to anyone.

There are some sharks out there selling systems that are based on this method. They are sold with a staking plan like the one I am about to show you. A friend of mine wrote a win/lose program based on 10,000 bets. Many hundreds of thousands of pounds were required to win £100 a day, as the stakes are on an exponential curve, meaning, multiplied by themselves and fractional divisors, in this case.

To achieve an 80 to 90% strike rate a series of three or four bets would be placed sequentially aiming to stop at a winner and win a fixed amount of profit, illustrated in Scenario One. Scenario Two is the VDW version of this staking plan.

Scenario One<br>Assuming you want to win £100 every day.<br>From the examples above.

Example A: points returned = 5<br>So, <br>Aim = £100 / 5 = £20<br>Horse A @ 2/1 Stake (4 x £20) £80<br>Horse B @ 3/1 Stake (3 x £20) £60<br>If either win £100 profit is returned.<br>If lose carry over losses.

Example B: points returned = 12<br>So, (aim £100 + losses £140)<br>£240 / 12 = £20<br>Horse A @ 2/1 = (9 x 20) = £180<br>Horse B @ 7/2 = (6 x 20) = £120<br>If either selection wins returns £240.<br>And so on ……………..don’t even consider this not ever!!

Scenario Two – VDW version of scenario one.<br>This assumes you want to stake £100 on every race and add 10% to stakes after every loser. In this case it is the stake which is fixed. The stake is divided by the ‘points to win total’ and not the ‘points returned total’.

Example A: points staked = 7<br>So,<br>Aim = £100/7 = £14<br>Horse A @ 2/1 Stake (4 x £14) £56<br>Horse B @ 3/1 Stake (3 x £14) £42.<br>If either selection wins £70 is returned.<br>Losses are not carried over in the scenario, £10 is added to the stakes for the next bet and you would not stop at a winner.

The VDW staking plan assumes that ALL bets will return 1/1 (even money). It also assumes that ALL bets will win 80% of the time. These figures are of course falsely claimed as demonstrated here. An 80% strike rate can only be be achieved if the selections are coupled and covered from bet to bet.

The Large Bank Method (LBM) is based on ‘Wave Theory’<br>Assumptions about results/returns are opinions and can be based on a series of 100 bets or so, which may or may not reflect the overall trend, which rolls out towards infinity. Probabilities of occurrence are totally random within their probability. For example a 60% win strike rate will generally produce 60 winning and 40 losing events. Over a series of 10 bets you would expect 4 losers and 6 winners, which would be quite correct. And at the same time completely wrong. This is because you can’t know beforehand how representative the 10 bets will be of the overall trend. The LBM using staking plans, allows a simplified cash flow. Where losing runs of 40 or so can be easily sustained. This method allows the probabilities to work out their proportions over time. It gives the mathematics respect, a point which is lost on many.

I won’t go any further here about LBM and staking plans, perhaps another thread should be started on the subject. I couldn’t get into Smartsig, so I don’t know if they talk about it there.

My Personal angle of attack.<br>I have tried to concentrate on the HOW’s rather than allude to vagaries like some people do on racing forms when discussing these kind of topics. They either don’t know or they won’t tell you anyway.

My betting has somewhat evolved since 1987 and VDW as a system has long been abandoned. The Hook for selling this system is ‘the philosophy of filters’ which is correct. Everything else is designed to lever hard earned cash out of your wallet. I don’t buy systems or books anymore, because when you sit quietly and listen very carefully you already know……………………..

(Edited by dave jay at 12:22 pm on Nov. 9, 2002)