The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Reply To: VAN DER WHEIL

Home Forums Tipping and Research Systems VAN DER WHEIL Reply To: VAN DER WHEIL

#42681
robert99robert99
Participant
  • Total Posts 897

Hi Dave,

I enjoyed reading your earlier posts and the suggestions to consider using other filters. One thing that you stated was about the class rating (£won / races won * 100) not working. Do you mean if used as a stand alone item – and do you have any statistics to hand?

As regards comments on staking strategy, what seems odd is that as VDW claimed 80% winning bets, he would not often get past the second bet before the series ended in profit.

Of the first 3 staking series you gave, it could be noted that the first one needs a 5/1 winner to recover stakes before otherwise going bust, the second a 10/1 winner to retrieve lost stakes after bet 6 and the last one a 6/1 winner at bet 11. So it could be argued that the safer bets in retaining the bank terms are less likely to get back into profit after a bad run than the first (because of the relatively small stakes bet).

Like is not often compared with like in such examples and it seem the most logical way forward is to know what your long term average strike rate is, and the average price obtained. If there is a profit at level stakes you could then estimate a longest losing run and bet accordingly.

If you are talking about maximising profits (rather than making a small profit from some poor results) then the bank has to be turned over much more rapidly than your 10 banks example, where much of the cash is laying idle for most of the time.

The SmartSig forum have recently had a long debate on sophisticated mathematical methods to maximise profit from a series of bets.

Regards.<br>Robert<br>:cool