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Quote: from dave jay on 4:43 pm on Dec. 13, 2006[br]If a trainer has an annual strike rate of 12% and he runs 10 horses a week for 52 weeks of the year.<br>Runs: 520<br>Win: 62<br>During the next year, how many weeks could go by without him having a winner before you could start thinking he wasn’t going to maintain his annual 12% strike rate?<br>
Dave, it is not about averages but determining when a particular stable is in, or about to reach, peak form.
For your 12% example a stable may have, for simplicity’s sake, a regular past monthly record of say 6 months with a 24% strike rate and 6 months completely barren period. You would only be watching for the stable to start reaching its peak form during the six, 24% strike rate months and take no acount of zero strike rates in its barren period.
It is irrelevant at any time when the stable is not firing, as you are not looking to back it then. It is relevant when the signs and past history are sufficiently convincing that the stable is coming back into form. Stable methods are little changing and using that knowledge just helps you to look in the right place at the right time.<br>