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Quote: from dave jay on 12:31 pm on Dec. 13, 2006[br]I dont believe in stable form .. I think its a statistical illusion.<br>
There are some random effects, but if you look at the monthly strike rates over the years there are clear patterns for each trainer. If it were purely all random these patterns would not occur. So, logically, there are some underlieing causes of strike rate peaks and falls.
These could be climate – when can horses start into training. Has he AW gallops etc?
Does trainer batch train ie do horses come to a peak roughly at the same time?
Number of horses trained – can any peak be sustained or does the ammunition run out. Can he use any raced horses as markers as to the fitness of those yet to race?
Placing ability of trainer – does he need several runs to get horse fit and know where to best place them?
General horse ability level – ie cannot win much during peak period of season etc etc