The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Reply To: Nick Mordin on Kauto Star

Home Forums Tipping and Research Trends, Research And Notebooks Nick Mordin on Kauto Star Reply To: Nick Mordin on Kauto Star

#33001
stevedvg
Member
  • Total Posts 1137

Mordin has a theory that, if a horse doesn’t run a fast time after x races, he’s not fast.

For this reaason, horses that won their early races without really being extended (e.g. Dalakhani) are regarded as being "overrated" by the public.

It’s a reasonable theory and may be useful in flat racing.

However, I’m sceptical that speed figures really mean that much in NH. There are so many variables that are hard to assess.

In particular, with horses finishing so strung out, most don’t give their all in the finish. Most winners could have found a few lengths if they had needed to .. but there’s just no point.

In Kauto Star’s last couple of races, he could have won in a faster time if he was pushed. This would suggest that the speed figs he ran were (well?) below what he’s capable of.

Mordin has a methodology for NH that’s based on speed figures and part of that methodology must be to oppose heavily backed horses that haven’t run a big speed figure.

So, I don’t see where the "absurdly contrarian, day is night, different for the sake of being different" point of view is about KS.

Unless he’s deliberately massaging his speed figures to underrate the horse, Mordin’s chosen methods must compell him to give an unspectacular rating.

Funny, I was thinking about KS on Saturday morning and noting that he’s never:

– won a King George<br>- won a Gold Cup<br>- won any race at the Cheltenham festival<br>- won any race at the Aintree festival<br>- won any race at the Puncheston festival<br>- beaten Kicking King<br>- beaten War Of Attrition<br>- beaten BoS in Ireland<br>- beaten the top French chasers <br>- won a chase with more than 8 runners

And I was thinking that, although he’s still very young (plenty time to achieve a number of those things) and was very impressive in the Betfair, I’m going to hold off before thinking he’s a worldbeater at 3m.

Steve