On the subject of Burnham and betting, I thought I should attempt to play up some of the fortune I won on Starmer getting the boot.
On balance, I don’t believe it will happen – but might Burnham be tempted to call a General Election this year?
A recent opinion poll shows Labour with a narrow lead over Reform. With troubles hanging over Farage, Reform and Restore squabbling with each other and the Conservatives not making much ground under Badenoch, might Burnham decide to go early if the figures look promising?
Perhaps not – it would be brave to throw away a large majority. But it isn’t his majority and any honeymoon period he is having will not last forever. The situation may look worse for him in two years time.
Some people within Labour are still sore at Gordon Brown delaying until the last minute, keeping them out of power for 14 years. People with longer memories recall Jim Callaghan dithering as well.
A few weeks ago, a General Election this year was 29/1 on Betfair. Despite my reservations, I thought that price was too big and I took it. The current price is around 20/1, so in that respect it isn’t a terrible bet.
It will be a bit of fun until the autumn and the conference season, anyway.
