Reform are not popular in the Liverpool region
I’m sure you’re aware but for the benefit of others:
Reform came second in Bootle in 2024 with 12% of the vote, admittedly a long way behind Peter Dowd’s 69%, which was down from 79% in 2019. Paul Nuttall – sometime leader of UKIP – also came a poor second to Dowd in 2015 with 11% of the vote.
Which suggests to me that although Bootle would be one of the least hazardous seats for Burnham to contest, it’s not a given he’d win given the swings to Reform last week, notably in not-too-distant St Helens, which to me on the other side of the Pennines would count as being in the ‘Liverpool region’.
I see one of the St Helens MPs has declined to give up her seat for Burnham, which is probably a good thing…for Burnham.