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Reply To: A New Start With Starmer

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value31
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Reform have done well in the Liverpool area, not Liverpool City itself. Reform will win in very poor Labour areas as the voters there believe their lives have not improved and want change. They would never vote Conservative and simply do not understand that Reform is actually far right of this right wing party. It is like turkeys voting for Christmas. In areas where the Conservatives had a massive majority Reform could do well and many of them are on the extreme right of the party.

As for a right wing coalition (Reform + Conservatives) after the next generation there is little chance of this. Left wing voters (apart from the very poor) will vote Liberal Democrat, while extreme left wing voters will vote Green. After the next General Election I I expect the order to be Reform, Liberal Democrats, Labour, Conservatives and Green. The most likely outcome would be a Liberal Democrat government, supported by Labour and the Greens. Even then the majority will be very thin.

Of course the above forecast is based on how things are now. Within two years Trump might be gone and the US will be in crisis mode thanks to his policies. People will realise the stupidity of voting for a ‘Trump’ party and Reform could implode. If that happens then Reform voters will go back to the Conservatives and poor voters will go back to Labour. We could have a very interesting outcome.