Badenoch may be dreadful (it’s about far more than PMQs, few actually watch or pay any attention to it, at most they see the odd clip on the news) but we’re talking about the Tory party as a whole here and their numbers haven’t really moved significantly in either direction in recent months.
There will be an element of ‘dyed in the wool’ support but I can see a return of some right wing voters eventually. Assuming it’s three years to the next election (watch the ‘year of three PMs’ Tories call for one should Starmer go) then people will have had plenty of chance to see what a pig’s ear Reform will make of running councils if results go as expected in a few weeks. Given that both parties are offering much the same thing, right wing voters could return, seeing them as the safer pair of hands amongst the right wing parties. Why vote for Farage’s Tory tribute act when you could have the real thing back?
Farage has said a couple of times that he thinks there’ll be an election in 2027. Why? Because he knows he’s peaking and the longer it goes on, the more he can see support drifting away.