“I reckon it’s unlikely he resigns before the local elections in three weeks or so”.
I am inclined to agree he will make it that far. I think that is partly due to the paucity of alternatives.
Rayner is still under investigation by HMRC. Streeting talks himself up but I doubt he will make a direct challenge. Miliband still lacks credibility from his previous time as party leader. And Burnham is not in the Commons (Starmer made sure of that).
There is also the thought: who would actually want to take over now, given the current diplomatic situation and the less than favourable circumstances at home? They would almost certainly be leading Labour to a defeat in 2029. Perhaps some of the younger Labour MPs have calculated it is better to play a long game, hope they survive the 2029 election and then try for the leadership? Although Streeting is defending a wafer thin majority in Ilford.