If he says the decision is 50/50 then surely you err on the side of caution?
I’m normally one of those who believes racing sometimes over does the health & safety aspects of jump racing so hardly a snowflake, but in this instance the clear & obvious risk is there for all to see.
18 hurdles jumped on his last 3 UK races and 3 falls meaning he has a 16% chance of falling at any given padded hurdle. Had he fallen at the last in the International Hurdle that would have been 4 falls in the last 19 hurdles he jumped.
It’s not as though he falls at the same part of every race either so you can’t even predict when he may do it.