IRISH THOROUGHBRED MARKETING GIMCRACK STAKES (Group 2) 6f
Eleven entries have held their ground for now despite the weather changing for the worse,with two days of rain the ground may possibly come up on just the good side of soft for Saturday’s racing.
I would like to think that a low draw is going to be more effective, and two that stand out are ‘Unabated‘ and ‘MUBTASIM‘ The former mentioned is trained by Marco Botti and both his runs have come at Newmarket this season. He looked more effective on the slower ground when he won well on race course debut when around the novice ranks. His second run was in a small field in a conditions contest when behind Godolphin’s Broken Stones, a horse who had already achieved a good third when behind Mehmas in the Group 2 July Stakes.
The one I feel can stretch these is Willie Haggas’s Mubtasim, who comes here unbeaten with Pat Cosgrave back on board. He could be coming into unknown territory here stepping out of the novice ranks, but the ground will be new to him. Both of his wins have been impressive and with Haggas winning this last year with Ajaya and in 2010 with Approve, he is in the right hands.
MUBTASIM : 2pt Win @ 7/2 (BOG)
BETFRED EBOR (Heritage Handicap) 1m 6f
One horse I think personally has sneaked into this under the radar is Marco Botti’s SEISMOS. He has had a spin around the Melbourne and Caulfield Cups in his time was seen winning the Group 3 Geoffrey Stakes last year on this type of ground. He finished a creditable seventh in the Northumberland Plate this year when five lengths off the winner and was doing a lot of late work in the closing stages. This year he is 8lb lower and still looks very well handicapped for a crack at this.
Over the past ten renewals there have only been two single price winners of this race and another that deserves a mention is Alan King’s TOP TUG. Two runs at York this year when third in the Jorvik Stakes and more recently third in the Charity Cup. He has a bit to find with Kinema on their Edinburgh Stakes encounter, but he gets a 10lb pull here and I am expecting a big run from him in this now stepping up in trip.
Ralph Beckett’s ‘KINEMA‘ is another that has to be given a big chance, he will have to concede weight this time around to Top Tug from their Ascot encounter, but his two runs on this ground when winning at Goodwood and Ascot when over turning the fancied Elite Army is very good form. Out of all these handicapper Kinema makes the most appeal going forward, he looks reliable over trip and ground and should be on the premises once more, but the only concern is the weight.
SEIMOS : 1pt each way @ 14/1 (BOG)
TOP TUG : 1pt each way @ 16/1 (BOG)