Darren Goodbody’s Best Bets – Saturday 16th July


Darren Goodbody’s best bets for Saturday 16th July

 

15.35 Newbury

BET365 HACKWOOD STAKES (Group 3)  6f 8y
 
Four year old’s have won three of the past six renewals which has included two of the past three encounters, this year we have two that are taking their chances in Charming Thought and The Tin Man. The latter ran a blinder when finishing fourth in last years Group 1 Champion Sprint when behind two useful types in Muhaarar and Twilight Son. His transition saw him win the Listed Leisure Stakes at Windsor, and went on to disappoint in the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot. His run two runs back at Windsor saw him beat Watchable who is has been ultra consistent this year not finishing out of the top three on all four runs. If the ground stays on the quick side he has to be feared by all in this competitive sprint.
 
Charming Thought keeps the tongue strap for the second time, finishing fourth last time out when behind Don’t Touch in the Listed Cathedral Stakes at Salisbury last month. He was behind Watchable on that occasion to one length when off level weights, they meet off the same terms this afternoon and I would like to think that Charming Thought can reverse that form on only his second run this season. David O’Meara’s Watchable probably deserves to be in the winning circle this year after some creditable runs in good company. They switch from the visor to blinkers for the first time this afternoon, and if this sharpens him up he should be in the mix once more with an eye catching booking of Sean Levey. 
 
Charles Hills won this last year with Strath Burn, Paul Hanagan won this back in 2013 with Heeraat and the two pair up here with Ibn Malik. He was a useful juvenile when finishing behind the likes of Galileo Gold in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes, runner up to Emotionless in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes and placed behind Gifted Master in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes. His transition went well on debut when landing the Listed European Free Handicap, he had Raucous well beaten on that occasion and should hold that form. 
 
One at a price I do like is Richard Fahey’s MR LUPTON, my concern is every time i put him up as a bet he has let me down, he was stepped up to pattern company when finishing fifth behind Markaz in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes, he was behind Watchable that day to two and three quarter lengths when in receipt of 7lb. He only gets 5lb this time around, but this is not the all weather he encountered at Newcastle, his only run at Newbury came in last years Weatherby’s Super Sprint when only a neck behind the eventual winner Lathom, the 5f that day was definitely on the sharp side and on this ground he has to be feared now back up to 6f. Interesting stat’s Stall 5 in this race has won on four occasions with three of the past four winners coming form that stall. 
 
Out of the preview the favourable draws on this going has been (5), (2) and (3) which brings in Mr Lupton, The Tin Man and Raucous and once more i would not be surprised to see that stat upholding once more, The Tin Man has the credentials to go close in this field, but Jamie Spencer keeps the mount, and at 9/1 looks real value. 
 
MR LUPTON : 2pts each way @ 9/1 (BOG)

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