CLUGSTON CONSTRUCTION MAY HILL STAKES (Group 2) 1m Str
An interesting stat I have noticed for this race over the past five renewals is that four of the past five winners did not have an OR. This might not bear any influence on the outcome but it is interesting that one I have followed this season is Ralph Beckett’s ‘RICH LEGACY’ who was beaten favourite in the Prestige Stakes when behind Kilmah. There were three lengths between them that day, and it was a strange ride for Oisin Murphy as the horse looked to switch off in mid race, but rattled home weaving through traffic and nearly snatched third in the process.
She is by Holy Roman Emperor who ran most of his races on Good ground, she will be encountering soft ground for the first time, but I expect we will see the ground change to Good by tomorrow. She has been given stall 7 which is not a negative considering the stall has won twice in the past six renewals. Her dam side of the pedigree is Borghesa who is a daughter of Galileo and only ran once in her career on the all weather, I would expect her to go very close in this.
RICH LEGACY : 2pt Win @ 5/1 – SKYBET (BOG)
JAPAN RACING ASSOCIATION SCEPTRE STAKES (Group 3) 7f
This is the smallest field assembled since 1997, which is surprising considering the fillies and mares have been quiet forward again this season. This is a race we could snatch a nice price in the market, it’s been seven years since we have seen a favourite take the race and I would expect ‘Lumiere’ to be the one to beat if the market speaks volumes for the Mark Johnston three year old filly. The Cheveley Park Stakes winner has not really brought her Juvenile progression into transition, she looked wayward in the first classic of the season the 1000 guineas finishing a long way back in the field.
She bounced back when dropped into Listed company landing the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes by six lengths, it was a race she should of won regardless being rated 7lb superior to most of her rivals, she was given another crack at Group 1 level when sent to Deauville and the Prix Rothschild where again she bombed out, she just keeps on running too freely throughout her races as she did here in France, dropping her back in to Group 3 company is probably a sensible move and if on song she should be too strong for her rivals.
It’s been eleven years since we have seen anything above the age of three land the race, in fact only four have succeeded since 1997, so the young regime have most definitely dominated. This is where i think we can see ‘Nemoralia’ prove again she is a smart filly. The daughter of More Than Ready i thought was very impressive when landing the City of York Stakes, Spencer had to get her to take the race up and had to fend off a late challenge from So Beloved, but always looked to hold the runner up.
Now even though i think Nemoralia is a smart filly as is Lumiere, there is one in this that could be generous in the market in Henry Candy’s ‘LA RIOJA’, she has been competing around this level all season but over shorter trips. Her fourth behind Quiet Reflection in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup and her fourth in the Flying Fillies at Pontefract more recently when beating a winner yesterday in Priceless who landed the Scarbrough Stakes in good fashion. She was a juvenile Group 3 winner on soft ground and drops 3lb for this pattern race, big claims if handling the step up to 7f this afternoon.
LA RIOJA : 1pt each way (BOG)
250TH DONCASTER CUP (British Champions Series) (Group 2) 2m 2f
A two and a quarter mile flat race to contend with and we cannot over look that Dany Tudhope has a good record when riding freelance for other trainers. For the first time he will be on Peter Niven’s ‘Clever Cookie’ who finished fourth in this two seasons ago. He has a small margin to over turn with Mizzou from their Sagaro Stakes encounter with only a neck between them. His form this year 22175 and has failed to shine in his last two runs which came in the Gold Cup and Lonsdale Cup where he was beaten eight length’s by Quest For More who he will oppose once more.
Beat Curbyourenthusiam in the Yorkshire Cup by half a length and that form was weak, not the winner for me this year and looks to of had a tough season. Willie Mullins has entered ‘CLONDAW WARRIOR’ was just denied last year when behind Pallasator, Frankie kept hold of him far too long in my opinion and came with a late rattle to lose by half a length. He is only a 1lb higher this year and was unlucky not to land the Group 1 American St Leger at Arlington back in August when flying home in the closing stages. He is hard to catch right, but this trip looks right up his avenue and with the Galway Hurdle in his resume he looks on paper the one to beat.
Another that cannot be discounted is David Simcock’s ‘SHEIKHZAYEDROAD’ who just seems to never run a bad race. Two big runs already this year when behind Order of St George and Big Orange in the Ascot Gold Cup and more recently the Goodwood Cup.I personally think the older generation will win this and Sheikhzayedroad has to ocme into the equation along with Clondaw Warrior who both have excellent profiles for this type of race and i would like to think one of these can land the prize.
CLONDAW WARRIOR : 2pt Win @ 5/1 – Coral, Boylesports (BOG)
Sheikhzayedroad : 1pt each way @ 10/1 – Coral, Boylesports, Betvictor (BOG