trendyrich

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  • in reply to: Football Experiment #473251
    trendyrich
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    You mentioned this method previously in another thread and I have been looking at this over the last week or so. I think you have a good idea here, more of a steady investment scenario than a "win big" scheme.

    One thing I noted was that sometimes the draw didn’t move that much and maybe there are some instances where this strategy is better, or "safer".

    For example, backing a top 4 team away to a team in the lower half of the table, is a lot riskier than the top 4 team playing at home. Sure, the odds will be higher and so too the liability but it is likely to be much safer – theoretically. I was busy on my new website tonight but will monitor this for one or two of tomorrow night’s games.

    West Ham v Hull
    This should produce goals as both teams are needing the win, but if a goal is scored will the draw odds move that much ? Currently the draw can be laid at 3.35

    Liverpool v Sunderland
    Obviously the draw is much less likely but there may be more value here. Currently the draw can be laid at 9.4 but if Liverpool score first then the draw odds will rocket upwards far further than with the previous game mentioned.

    Partick v Celtic
    Perhaps the best opportunity of these 3 fixtures as currently the draw can be laid at 5.4. Despite Partick having drawn 7 of their 15 home games so far, Celtic have only drawn 1 of 15.

    I will be watching the West Ha game so may not get the most immediate price change on the other games, but if I suggest a theoretical lay to lose around £30 on the draw on each of the games, then if my maths is correct, this will mean the following bets…

    West Ham draw laid at 3.35 to lose £30 means that a bet of £8.95 needs to be laid. I will round this up to £9 so the liability will be £30.15

    Liverpool draw laid at 9.4 to lose £30 means that a bet of £3.19 needs to be laid. I will round this up to £3.20 so the liability will be £30.08

    Celtic draw laid at 5.4 to lose £30 means that a bet of £5.55 needs to be laid. I will round this down to £5.50 so the liability will be £29.70.

    Let the games begin!!

    in reply to: Winter Derby 2014 #473119
    trendyrich
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    I fancy REBELLIOUS GUEST at the price his last run looked good,the question mark is he is coming back to group company but this time on what I believe is his preferred terms

    other than that Grandeur

    REBELLIOUS GUEST is in the 5 day declarations for the Lincoln this coming Saturday and fits the trend analysis that I have done.

    Currently best priced at 20/1.

    in reply to: Winter Derby 2014 #472711
    trendyrich
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    Yep, Grandeur is gonna have to go the long way round to win it seems. I think this boosts the chances of yet another top rated horse getting beat.

    My fancy Farraaj is drawn in stall 9 so also has an uphill struggle from there. He won last year coming out of stall 5 and his previous run on the course was in am Listed race, which he won coming out of stall 10 of 10 runners.

    A lot depends on how Grandeur copes with the first ½ mile, if he can get into a good position then it will be hard to see him getting beaten.

    An outsider being backed is Rebellious Gust 33/1 > 16/1.

    Good luck.

    in reply to: Premier League 2013-14 #472574
    trendyrich
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    …I would rather Arsenal win the league then have to see his smug smile lifting the trophy at the end of the season.

    Don’t let it get to you, it could be worse, you could be a West Ham supporter like me !! :roll:

    in reply to: Answer this horse racing question then ask the next #472362
    trendyrich
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    It’s not a trick question is it ? :(

    E.g. an Irish horse already raced in Ireland and who’s first race in the UK was the Coventry.

    Did Dante race before he won the Coventry?

    in reply to: Answer this horse racing question then ask the next #472174
    trendyrich
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    You’re jumping the gun, Rich. That answer’s wrong.

    I’ve done a bit of checking and the two horses that I gave did both win the Coventry on debut – perhaps there are other horses that have done theis as well?

    "

    Persimmon was one of the leading British two-year-old of 1895, winning two of his three races. He made his debut at Royal Ascot on 18 June, where he started 2/1 favourite for the Coventry Stakes. Ridden by John Watts he led from the start and won "in great style" by three lengths from Meli Melo

    …"
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persimmon_%28horse%29

    The next one is easy to remember mainly because of the quote regarding Lester Piggott…

    "Chief Singer never ran in a maiden race and was unusual in that his entire career was spent in Group Race company. On his first racecourse appearance he was sent to Royal Ascot in June where he ran in the six furlong Coventry Stakes. Shortly before the race, Sheather had matched the colt against a successful six-year-old handicapper named Teamwork in a trial gallop, and decided to send the colt straight to Ascot after he easily defeated[3] his older rival despite meeting him at two stones worse than weight-for-age.[1] In the Coventry Stakes, Chief Singer started a 20/1 outsider in a field of fourteen runners. Before the race Lester Piggott asked Cochrane how he expected to win on "that big black oaf". Cochrane responded "take a good look at his face, because all you’re going to see at the end is his arse".[3] Chief Singer started poorly and was left behind by his opponents but made up the lost ground, took the lead entering the final furlong, and drew away to win by four lengths…"
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chief_Singer

    Please don’t get me wrong, I’m not whinging here, just trying to add a bit more info about the subject. I am not aware of any other debutants so I await the answer with interest.

    in reply to: Answer this horse racing question then ask the next #472157
    trendyrich
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    Thought that I got it a bit too quickly. This came up in a quiz a few years ago, darn my memory.

    Thinking cap back on.

    in reply to: Answer this horse racing question then ask the next #472105
    trendyrich
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    I believe they are Persimmon in 1895 and Chief Singer in 1983.

    Provided they are correct, my question is…

    What was the name of the jockey who punched the chairman of the BHB ?

    in reply to: Midlands National 2014 #472102
    trendyrich
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    Firebird Flyer was my original pick and I would really liked to have seen him run.

    Alpha Victor (2nd at 33/1) was the best placed of the 5 that made my trends listing. I had a small each way on Red Rocco – one day I will pick the right one off my listing !!

    http://theanalyst.siterubix.com/saturdays-big-races/2014-midlands-grand-national

    The Winter Derby is the race I will be analysing for next Saturday.

    in reply to: Festival Trends #472100
    trendyrich
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    Yes you could be right…

    Trends are…
    > Quevega has won 6 of the 7 runnings of this race.

    Selections analysed, number left after analysis = 1.

    Hahaha !!

    in reply to: Football Bets #472099
    trendyrich
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    The Banker double came in which returned £17.78 and the treble which included Watford won and returned £8.62. In total a return of £26.40.

    Ok so it’s not a great amount but as I’ve said it’s a steady way of earning a profit.

    I actually made a mistake with the selections, Watford should have been a Banker instead of Leicester and that’s what I put on the tipping website and also backed myself. I suppose it’s not really relevant as this series of posts was just to show a system that others might like and adopt.

    With regards to my system above, here are my selections for this weekend…

    Bankers: Everton 1/3 + Leicester 1/3
    Premiums : Watford 8/13 + Bournemouth 11/8
    Tacticals : Brentford 13/8 + Stoke (draw) 9/4

    10pt double Everton + Leicester 0.78/1
    3pt treble Everton + Leicester + Watford 1.87/1
    3pt treble Everton + Leicester + Bournemouth 3.22/1
    3pt fourfold Everton + Leicester + Watford + Bournemouth 5.82/1
    1pt acca Everton + Leicester + Watford + Bournemouth + Brentford + Stoke (draw) 57.19/1

    Good luck with your bets.

    in reply to: Football Bets #471801
    trendyrich
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    @nathan;
    I’ve not heard of that one, I would have to do a bit of study to get a feel of how it works and what potential it has.

    With regards to my system above, here are my selections for this weekend…

    Bankers: Everton 1/3 + Leicester 1/3
    Premiums : Watford 8/13 + Bournemouth 11/8
    Tacticals : Brentford 13/8 + Stoke (draw) 9/4

    10pt double Everton + Leicester 0.78/1
    3pt treble Everton + Leicester + Watford 1.87/1
    3pt treble Everton + Leicester + Bournemouth 3.22/1
    3pt fourfold Everton + Leicester + Watford + Bournemouth 5.82/1
    1pt acca Everton + Leicester + Watford + Bournemouth + Brentford + Stoke (draw) 57.19/1

    Good luck with your bets.

    in reply to: Festival Trends #471634
    trendyrich
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    Here we go, the final day (4)…

    1:30 Triumph Hurdle

    Calipto**
    Guitar Pete
    Pearl Castle
    Abbyssial
    Rutherglen
    Lindenhurst

    2:05 County Handicap Hurdle

    Cheltenian
    Lac Fontana
    Minella Foru**
    Alaivan
    Rainbow Peak
    Master Of The Game
    Deep Trouble
    Jumps Road
    Citizenship
    Lough Kent
    Morning Royalty

    2:40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

    Deputy Dan
    Champagne West
    Blakemount
    Urban Hymn**
    Mosspark

    3:20 Cheltenham Gold Cup

    Bobs Worth
    Last Instalment**
    Triolo D’Alene
    Cloudy Too
    Houblon Des Obeaux

    4:00 Foxhunter Chase

    On The Fringe
    Harbour Court**
    Tammys Hill
    Oscar Delta
    Pearlysteps
    Certain Flight
    Divine Intavention
    Made In Time
    Shy John
    Carsonstown Boy
    Foundry Square
    Ravethebrave
    Double Bank

    4:40 Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle

    Vieux Lion Rouge**
    Une Artiste
    Ruacana

    5:15 Grand Annual handicap Chase

    Competitive Edge**

    **Indicates my selections.

    Good luck !

    trendyrich
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    1:30 Calipto (Res: Guitar Pete)
    2:05 Minella Foru (Res: Alaivan)
    2:40 Kings Palace (Res: Urban Hymn)
    3:20 Last Instalment

    NAP

    (Res: Trolo D’Alene)
    4:00 Harbour Court + Divine Intavention (Res 1: Oscar Delta Res 2: Certain Flight)
    4:40 The Skyfarmer (Res: Vieux Lion Rouge)
    5:15 Next Sensation (Res : Competitive Edge)

    Good luck all.

    in reply to: Festival Trends #471559
    trendyrich
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    • Total Posts 618

    3 winners from the trends listings today and the first race where none were placed…

    Horses that follow the trends I have noticed for Day

    are as follows…

    1:30 Jewson Novices Chase

    Double Ross

    Off The Ground
    Taquin De Seuil**

    (

    2:05 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle Final

    If In Doubt
    Grand Vision
    Josies Orders
    Top Wood
    Uncle Jimmy
    Broadway Buffalo
    Mister Dillon
    Utopie Des Bordes
    Crowning Jewel
    First Fandango
    Fingal Bay**

    Jetson (

    Southfield Theatre

    Mickie
    Trustan Times

    (It would be nice to reduce this listing even further, but I just can’t find the trends to do so. At least it cuts the field in half meaning less form study !!)
    (

    2:40 Ryanair Chase

    Al Ferof**
    Benefficient (

    Menorah
    (

    3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle

    Annie Power**

    More Of That

    Zarkandar
    Mala Beach
    (

    4:00 Byrne Group Plate Handicap Chase

    Carrickboy
    Firth Of The Clyde**
    Shangani
    Bennys Mist
    Tatenen

    Sew On Target
    Christopher Wren
    (

    4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Trophy

    Our Father (

    Buddy Bolero**
    (


    **Indicates my selections.

    Good luck with your bets.

Viewing 15 posts - 571 through 585 (of 601 total)