stevecaution

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  • in reply to: Never Mind The Six Million Dollar Man…How About #872361
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    <div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
    As Shania Twain would say “So, you’re a billionaire….that don’t impress me much, you’ve got the dough but have you got the touch, don’t get me wrong…I think you’re all right…but that won’t win the Guineas on Sunday night”

    A new Irish ballad coming to the airwaves soon, featuring a rap chorus of ‘Listen’ by MC O’Brien

    “Now listen now”

    Ear “It’s what I do best old boy”

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: Lockinge 2015 #872360
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    I don’t believe we have seen the best from Here Comes When yet. If we get a soft ground Lockinge, this horse could be very dangerous. I believe this horse will produce a massive run on soft ground at some point in its career.

    He’s interesting on soft ground. A little bit in and out, his profile is one of steady improvement and he signed off on a good note last year. Given ideal conditions, he might well surprise in one of the big races one day if he makes a bit more progress.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: 1000 Guineas 2015 #872358
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    Steve

    I dont think you know much about racing , I think you are pretty hot on the betting side , but for racing …well you dont win the gold medal …. :negative:
    Stilvi is nearer the mark ..I would humbly suggest

    Result stands …weighed in weighed in :cry:

    I heard you the first time Rick. Repeating the same post is classed as trolling I would have thought. Perhaps there’s a little bridge somewhere, missing its little troll.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: Never Mind The Six Million Dollar Man…How About #872356
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    For operations with huge monetary resources, it must be seen as worth the gamble. A lot of very well bred horses will be foaled in house so we often don’t see these exceptional pedigrees come through the sales ring, when they do, those with the big purses will go hammer and tong for them because 5 mill might turn into a lot more in the future. If it doesn’t? So be it, they are multi-billionaires with more money to spend than we could ever imagine.

    Can you imagine what sort of sum Sea The Stars would have gone through the sales ring for? Unimaginable I am sure.

    As Shania Twain would say “So, you’re a billionaire….that don’t impress me much, you’ve got the dough but have you got the touch, don’t get me wrong…I think you’re all right…but that won’t win the Guineas on Sunday night”

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: Sectional Times by Simon Rowlands #872119
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    I agree Seethesun. It is a bit like having a favourite band you’ve followed through their unsigned/indie stage suddenly becoming popular with all and sundry.

    I felt the same way with the Internet.

    It used to be MY Internet but now look at it. It’s everywhere now, they’ve even got it on computers for Christ’s sake :unsure:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: Wealth Warning….. #872118
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    Peacock is due out on Saturday at Kempton in what looks a good chance to get back to winning ways.
    His last run looks good considering he was out paced but made up ground hand over fist despite getting hampered and the two horses ahead of him that day were Toocoolforschool who won the Mill Reef next time out and Nafaqa who was 4th at Royal Ascot behind Richard Pankhurst despite being green and leaving the stalls a few seconds behind the rest and ended the season only a length down behind Elm Park in the Royal Lodge.
    I think Peacock is a good horse and any step up in trip will help his chances.
    His forecast price is 4/5 for Saturday and at level weights that looks not bad. We’ll see what he opens up at.

    4/5 might be wishful thinking Nathan. As you say, he’s got good bits of form in the context of Saturday’s race and he’s got 13 lbs in hand on official ratings.

    Sometimes these forecast prices are laughable. I think Gosden’s Jazzi Top was about 3/1 the other day and went off at 5/6 in the real world, with no non-runners either!

    Marco Botti’s Azraff was quite progressive late last season and ran behind Maftool, who has had a good enough time in Dubai this spring. He may have more improvement yet and the stable has been going well enough.

    The once raced Ralph Beckett gelding Master Of Irony should be open to plenty of improvement in my mind. This Qatar Racing owned horse was slowly away on his only start and looked a bit gangly and awkward in the early stages. Jamie Spencer seemed to be bumping him along intermittently and coming into the final turn you wouldn’t have given a lot for his chances. Taken wide he started to get the hang of it though, and he ran on to good effect, winning in quite good style I thought. He’s plum last on the ratings but I would keep an eye on him with time, experience and the extra furlong all likely to make him more competitive than his rating would suggest.

    Interesting to see what the odds will be.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: 1000 Guineas 2015 #872102
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    Steve

    I dont think you know much about racing , I think you are pretty hot on the betting side , but for racing …well you dont win the gold medal ….
    :negative:
    Stilvi is nearer the mark ..I would humbly suggest

    Sorry Ricky, but your comment means nothing in the context of this thread.

    This is about discussing the winner of this year’s 1000 Guineas.

    I have put my points forward regarding Ervedya’s performance and the context of the race quality and opposition. I have also explained that the trainer has said he will not decide whether she runs at Newmarket until all the French trials have been run.

    These are all factors pertinent to the horse’s chance of winning the race and that is what this particular thread is about.

    People reading this thread can feel free to consider the points I have raised and agree, disagree, or totally ignore them. I feel it is good sense when having a bet to consider if the horse is definitely going to run in the race in question.

    We are all free to see the racing game as we wish. I am far from gullible or naive about what goes on in racing but I don’t subscribe to the dross/bent/useless jockey conspiracy theories either.

    Something else I don’t subscribe to is telling other users that they don’t know much about the game of racing. It’s something I just don’t feel is right, or helpful in creating a forum where people can feel at ease and their input welcome.

    It’s a bit sad that you see the need to run my knowledge of the sport down and I’d take a good look at yourself before casting aspersions on people you have never met. Wisdom and Knowledge are separate identities.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: Daily racing form newspaper #872101
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    so I should just throw it away then

    These things are all about rarity and demand. People tend to hoard things like Newspapers and they are normally produced in huge numbers. The chances of anyone being desperate to own them is normally very slim.

    There was an American election where some newspapers were printed in error giving the wrong man as the new president, I think it was the one Harry Truman was involved in, and they are a bit rarer but even then I don’t think it’s mega bucks.

    I have a London Standard Newspaper from Christmas Eve 1900 but I don’t think it’s worth much approaching it’s 115th Birthday.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: 2000 guineas 2015 #872083
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    Don’t quote me as I’ll have to take a look but I’m sure Richard Hughes wrote in his Autobiography that fighting the horse to settle until they do is a way of making them learn to settle in a race and if you let them run away with you they are likely to do it again and again.

    Hughsie would know a lot more about it than me and I have no doubt his theory is correct.

    It is just that I would rather that they taught the horses to settle on the gallops, rather than see a horse anchored and effectively out of the race in order that the jockey can show who is boss.

    A case in point is surely Kevin Manning on Dawn Approach in the Derby, where he fought the horse for a long way before pointlessly letting him go on when his race had already been run.

    I think there are different degrees of keenness in a horse’s personality and it’s not always about careering away totally out of control. It just seems so counter-productive to be pulling the horse back, making it harder for him to be making no effective progress for the energy spent.

    I’m just wondering, if once in a while a jockey might let his mount get to the head of affairs and see if he’ll settle down once he’s at the head of affairs.

    I suppose, like the bulk of rides we see day-in, day-out, year after year, there are ways that things have to be done and initiative is rarely taken or conventional wisdom challenged. There’s a serious lack of inspiration and guile shown in my opinion. Imagine trying to compile a book entitled “Rides Of Genius”, I think you would come up with a pretty slim volume. And no, you can’t include Einstein’s Honeymoon in the book 😉

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: 2000 guineas 2015 #871967
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    The other factor I discovered bearing in mind this was in the 90’s was that the thing that ruins a horse race is when it is using up energy fighting the bridle and wanting its head, all the pent up energy was being held in check ready for the moment but the horse didn’t know that and wanted to get to the front as they like to lead the pack as the weaker ones get attacked by the wolves in the wild. When a horse travelled especially when it travelled by air is that days before hand a sedative of some description was administered to reduce the horses fear of flying for example to the tracks. I believe the same may have been true for horsebox transfer by road but this was like administered if required at the time. Those travelling by air had to be administered prior to the travel and was topped up on the day if required. Therefore when you look at the results of the horses from Ireland, Godolphin and France I have wondered about this as this would surely calm the horse down and would be less on its toes. I am not saying there was anything illegal going on at all but I was told was a requirement by the airlines flying the horses. Also the horses themselves bearing in mind there age was often not used to big crowds so would be schooled not to over react such as public gallops where there was often a lot of attention with cameras clicking etc. Not sure how much difference this made but I was told it was all the little things that add up but on the day you had to have lady luck as well and position the horse and press the button when it was judged by the jockey to get the best of the horse and it was fine lines that was often the difference.

    It’s always been a pet hate of mine watching a jockey fighting with a horse who won’t settle.

    My thinking has always been that, if a horse is using energy up it might as well be going somewhere with it, rather than fighting with the jockey and being held back into the bargain. The horse may simply not settle but if it wants to get to the front, then perhaps it will calm down once getting there.

    Usually a hard puller is as good as done anyway but playing tug-of-war with the horse puts the final nail in the lid as far as I am concerned.

    How a horse has travelled is usually something I have just taken on trust and let the trainer say whether it went well or not. I recall reading about Generous, when he travelled to France to compete in his 2yo days and that they had reason why he ran poorly on his trip overseas. For a start the horse didn’t have a great journey over and to put the tin lid on it he was stabled right next to a noisy fairground that went on late into the wee small hours. Generous ran like a bag of rusty nails behind Hector Protector at Deauville but got back on track as warm favourite at Sandown, before landing The Dewhurst at a whopping 50/1, which was when I then read all the kerfuffle that had led to his poor showing in France.

    The moral always seems to be that Johnny Punter never finds out helpful information until after it’s too late to help. Still, at least I backed Generous for the Derby.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: Irish National 2015 #871962
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    Buddy Bolero isn’t in this now, so there’s no way I’ll bother with a bet on this race. It’s never been my lucky race anyway and without the Guinea Pig angle it’s just another race.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: Early Royal Ascot Betting #871961
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    Freddie Head has confirmed that The Queen Anne is the main aim for Solow. That is worth bearing in mind for anyone considering him for The Prince Of Wales, where he is only one point bigger than Free Eagle in the betting.

    Freddie Head admitted barking up the wrong tree with the horse when running him over almost two miles and says the horse has improved for dropping to a mile and that 10f is fine for him as well.

    I think he’ll take the beating in The Queen Anne and will watch how he gets on in his next race, the Prix D’Ispahan on 24th May (Pricks Dishpan Hands for the non-French speakers amongst us)

    Any bets on the headline for that race being “Han Solow” in the event of him winning?

    May the force be with him at Ascot.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: 1000 Guineas 2015 #871953
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    Not wishing to pee on Ricky’s little bonfire but I think some perspective is required on Ervedya’s performance today.

    She was dropping back in class to Group 3 company today and she was favourite for the race. The last time she was in group 1 company, Found was a ready 2 and a half lengths too good for her. Found was the away horse that day and Ervedya will have to leave France this time.

    Comparisons with Zarkava seem a little premature considering that Ervedya has been beaten twice already and is highly unlikely to be treading the boards at distances the mighty Zarkava tackled.

    Where Ricky gets “winning eased down by 4 or 5” from I don’t know. The winning margin was one and three quarter lengths, so either Ricky is measuring it in Meerkat lengths, as opposed to horse lengths, or was distracted by the commotion going on in the underpants at the time.

    The trainer said he won’t make up his mind where she runs until all the French trials are completed. Not a lot of good having a ticket for a race the horse isn’t in. By all means she may be good enough, I expect she will be near second favourite if she runs and it’s at that stage when punters can relax and feel well ahead of the game.

    I can tell from experience that getting the odds is only part of the equation, having backed Maybe at 25/1 for the 1000 Guineas, then watched her line up 13/8f and get beat hollow by 25/1 and 33/1 shots.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: 1000 Guineas 2015 #871949
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    Ervedya was predictably cut in after her Imprudence win today.

    I dont normally post on this section , in fact this is a first ….

    Whatever beats this filly will win a classic

    She is palpably brilliant …not since Zarkava ..have I been so taken with a performance

    Tracking a group on the worst favoured stands side …she gave away 2 maybe 3 lengths to get to the leader who was cruising with 200 to go …then she just went zoom , in a heartbeat the race was over …winning easing down by 4 or 5 …wow I mean wow big time

    Just breathtaking :yes:

    Get on flat muppets …get on

    And if she goes for the French Guineas you will win SFA. Bon Chance

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    in reply to: 1000 Guineas 2015 #871894
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    Ervedya was predictably cut in after her Imprudence win today.

    It’s the time of year when anything that shows they still have four legs will be sliced in. As always, it’s not certain whether she’ll come to Newmarket or stay in France. If she does turn up you could see 5/1 or so being her price depending on how many bubbles go pop. Best price for now is 14/1 and down to 10/1 in places. Early doors yet though.

    There are tickles of money on Together Forever and she is described as the one other certain candidate along with Found from Ballydoyle. I would have backed her at 16/1 if I could have been sure there would be cut in the ground. It is still a question as to whether she just happened to make a huge chunk of improvement on her final start of last season, or whether meeting the soft surface did the trick. She’ll be a single figure price and big player if there is juice in the ground at Newmarket.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

Viewing 15 posts - 4,921 through 4,935 (of 8,038 total)