Would you re-route Politologue ?

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This topic contains 14 replies, has 13 voices, and was last updated by raymo61 raymo61 6 months ago.

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  • #1341905

    Coggy
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    Following this weekends defeat at the hands of Altior, would you change his target from the Champion Chase to the Ryanair ?
    He had the fitness advantage when they met, and the step up in distance would certainly be within his abilities as he has already won over 2m3f and 2m5f.
    I know its another course on another day, but I cannot see any way that he can reverse the result if all is well with Altior.

    #1341912
    Degaussed
    Degaussed
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    Take him straight to Aintree.

    #1341915
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    I don’t think Politologue jumped that well did he, only watched it the once so might be wrong, had he jumped better could of made a bit more of a race of it but agree he had plenty of match fitness on his side plus it was on going Altior wouldn’t have liked as such. It’s a big if but how many times do we see a horse off track a long time put in a very good display then run below par next time out especially in a big festival race? Toronado had wind/breathing problems and would run better off longer breaks rather than quicker returns although a month should be plenty of time in that regard, not sure what the success rate would be with horses having wind ops regard breaks between races.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1341923

    LD73
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    With the exception of the Aintree fall (when he looked to have the race won) which was on good ground all of his best form is on a much softer surface – he was clearly beaten for speed on soft ground at Newbury and you can only see Altior superior speed being much more pronounced with quicker conditions at the Festival, so a step up to the Ryanair is a viable alternative (a race more winnable for him even though I don’t think he would beat UDS).

    However, the QMCC could likely cut up a bit and with all the speculation about whether Douvan will even make it, without him & Altior he would be the likely winner and Altior’s least impressive performance of last season was in the Arkle – so if he underperforms for any reason (and lets face it nobody saw coming what happened in last year’s race) how gutted would they be if they weren’t even in the race to take advantage of something happening.

    My guess is he will run in the QMCC or nothing at all – for me though the Melling Chase looks tailor made for him as more often than not you don’t end up having to face either winner of the QMCC or Ryanair.

    #1341943
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Seem to remember earlier in the season Paul Nicholls regretting running Politologue in the JLT, thinking he didn’t quite stay. Yes, Politologue has won over around the Ryanair trip but the form isn’t as good. May be that’s because he’s just improved since, but travels so well at 2m could be he’ll always be best at the minimum trip. “Outspeeded” at Newbury by a better racehorse, but – although winning – Altior wasn’t at his best at the Festival after successful in the Game Spirit. Possible that’ll happen again.

    Champion Chase reallistically looks like Altior with a massive chance with Min clear second best (Politologue’s wins this season have been in weak renewals and/or picked up the pieces). Ryanair appears much more open, but that openness probably means many more runners… And with Politologue far from certain to stay the trip I’d say his best chance remains firmly over the 2m distance; a distance with more prestige too.

    value is everything
    #1341984

    LD73
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    Won over 2m5f at both Ascot (good to soft) and Haydock (soft) so I don’t see the trip being the problem but his record at Cheltenham is not great – in 3 runs it reads UR in a Novice Hurdle, 20th in the Coral Cup & 4th in the JLT (which incidentally happened to be run on good ground).

    As I said I believe he will run in the QMCC but he will need others to underperform to give him a realistic chance of winning but then stranger things have happened.

    #1341997

    TommyNag
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    In a word, no.

    You have to do right by the horse and run him over his best distance. Never run scared of one horse. Look at the champion chase last year, perfect example of why you should never run scared of one other horse.

    I understand if there are 5 or 6 far better horses in the race than yours, but not one, maybe 2.

    #1341999

    thewexfordman
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    Champion hurdle, then aintree chase over 2.5

    #1342000
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    Agree with Tommy. He’s probably Nicholls stable star anyway

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1342010
    LostSoldier3
    LostSoldier3
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    No.

    #1342071

    droffats
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    Why. He got beat by possible the best 2 miler chaser we have seen for a good while, I would say possibly better that Sprinter Sacre.
    However you should never be afraid of one horse and if Altior under performed I think he would win it as I think he is the second best 2 mile chaser around

    #1342075
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Won over 2m5f at both Ascot (good to soft) and Haydock (soft) so I don’t see the trip being the problem but his record at Cheltenham is not great – in 3 runs it reads UR in a Novice Hurdle, 20th in the Coral Cup & 4th in the JLT (which incidentally happened to be run on good ground).

    Yes LD, he won over those longer trips and therefore has a chance of being as good at the Ryanair distance. But – so far – his form at 2m is better than his form at around 2m5f. So there’s a question of his ability at the longer distance which needs to be taken in to account when assessing whether to go for the Champion or Ryanair.

    imo He’s no more than 50/50 to be as effective in the Ryanair.

    value is everything
    #1342110
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
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    Definite no for me Coggy, basically for the reasons Tommy mentioned.

    #1342111

    Mike007
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    Immaterial now as Nicholls confirmed it’s the Champion Chase.

    #1342217
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    Never be afraid of one horse!!

    Altior is a monster but someone has to finish second and the prize money for second is not to be sniffed at. Also the horse looks a two miler to me and against lesser animals he could mop up a good few races!!

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