"Why Bookmakers Limit Accounts" blog…

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This topic contains 35 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by betlarge betlarge 5 years, 7 months ago.

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  • #436502
    Drone
    Drone
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    • Total Posts 5127

    Good luck and if you’d care to report how you get on (or not get on :) ) that would be most interesting

    Oh yeah, that’ll be fun. I believe Gerald Kaufman referred to Labour’s uber-socialist 1983 manifesto as "The longest suicide note in history" and I presume you’re after the same. There’s nothing like the schadenfreude of watching some deluded fantasist punter crash-and-burn so it would be cruel not to keep you informed.

    Anyway, whatever happened to Gerald Kaufman eh? Mind, whatever happened to socialism?

    Indeed, the increasingly cadaverous Kaufman staggered to his feet in paliament last week to offer an uncomfortably ingratiating eulogy to Herself; and as for Socialism it made a slight return in the House last night when the dream-team of Galloway and Skinner were allowed free-rein to vent their wrath at the cancellation of today’s Prime Minister’s Questions due to some funeral taking place. The Beast was particularly eloquent – if somewhat faulting in his old age – and his words caused a lot of shoelace staring on the opposition benches. Quite a moving speech actually, if hopelessly and sadly of another time, another place, another country, another world i.e. 1983: Orwell must be kicking himself, close but no Players No.6 :) :(

    In case you’ve misunderstood my request I should make it clear that I wouldn’t dream of asking another punter to divulge his bets, stakes and income; it’s just the problems you may encounter with BOG or betting with bookmakers in general I, and I’m sure others, would be interested to hear about

    Punters are all suicidal deluded fantasists to a lesser or greater extent. Still it beats having a proper job doesn’t it :?:

    #436504
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 24504

    Thanks for the detailed response Drone.

    I certainly would

    not

    say that

    ALL

    Timeformers arrive at the same selection. But one or two (or more) good

    "value"

    judges are bound to work it out the same way as I do. Therefore, if I don’t take the price in the morning, it’ll likely disappear by afternoon.

    "Late value" are usually different horses to "Early value", and as I’ve been successful at the former don’t often look at the latter – where on-course happenings may also influence the market.

    Agree race card ratings are just one thing to allow for. Any Timeformer concentrating too much on ratings will struggle. Going, distance/stamina, track, jockey, temperament, pace in the race and current trainer form important factors.

    value is everything
    #436548
    betlarge
    betlarge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2655

    In case you’ve misunderstood my request I should make it clear that I wouldn’t dream of asking another punter to divulge his bets, stakes and income; it’s just the problems you may encounter with BOG or betting with bookmakers in general I, and I’m sure others, would be interested to hear about

    That’s OK, I understood what you meant! Will be happy to file a missive or two along with accompanying psychiatric report, repossession notices etc.

    Planning to start on Bank Holiday Monday 6th May unless a) I get dragged to some hideous Bank Holiday event or b) I get completely hooked on the World Snooker final.

    Mike

    #436598
    Drone
    Drone
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5127

    "Late value" are usually different horses to "Early value"

    Agreed, late drifts in the live market to assessed value on a horse underlaid all day in the early markets, and therefore all but given up on as a potential bet until the last few minutes, form a small but significant subset of my bets; significant because they’ve returned a near 6% net profit overall, Exchange only

    Further to your point made elsewhere about not being tempted to bet "anything shortened to a poor price" well yes I too certainly wouldn’t bet the whole stake underlaid as that goes against the very principle of value betting, but I will bet part of the stake underlaid in the live market if and only if it means that the overall odds on the full stake are still an overlay. e.g my odds 3.0, get half stake on at 3.4 rest at 2.9, so full stake on at value 3.15.

    Don’t enjoy doing it though and it’s one of the drawbacks of being an anally-retentive level-staker – must get the usual stake on , must get the full stake on, must must must :)

    #436603
    betlarge
    betlarge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2655

    I will bet part of the stake underlaid in the live market if and only if it means that the overall odds on the full stake are still an overlay. e.g my odds 3.0, get half stake on at 3.4 rest at 2.9, so full stake on at value 3.15.

    It’s a good tactic. Similarly, I quite like the idea of splitting a bet between a BOG price in the morning and a follow-up late on Betfair if the market is speaking for, or not going in again if the market is against. You’re taking advantage via a higher stake when field money says you should and via higher odds when it doesn’t.

    The inbuilt contradiction in this is that your bets are being influenced by the ‘perfection’ of the late market – using it as advice in effect – yet unless you can beat that market overall the game is futile.

    For practical reasons it’s a non-starter for me (I study in the mornings). And the ‘getting on at BOG’ thing still exists for everyone.

    Mike

    #436668
    kasparov
    kasparov
    Member
    • Total Posts 673

    One thing you can try is BOG arbing. This sometimes works with odds-on favourites. e.g take 4/6 at BOG and lay at 1.67 or exchange SP on an exchange. Then hope the horse wins at say 5/6 SP or the exchange SP is less than 4/6. Often you can get big bets on a fav so even a small margin is worth having.

    I used to do this sometimes but it is a low volatility strategy if repeated often on odds-on horses so I didn’t always bother with the laying part. As Ginge says though the bookmaker may eventually or quickly take away the BOG concession.

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