THM Goes Jumping 2014-2015

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This topic contains 186 replies, has 10 voices, and was last updated by thehorsesmouth thehorsesmouth 3 years, 5 months ago.

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  • #495036
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    Cheltenham 2.25
    Dell Arca
    €20 win @ 4/1 (WH)

    Cheltenham 3.00
    Blaklion
    €30 win @ 2/1 (B365)

    - €280

    #495042

    stilvi
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4584

    The novice chase was good alright, what did you think of Empire Of Dirt’s run?

    Been having problems accessing the site to answer. As you know I followed this horse with a little success last season. Given that there was a little bit of market support for him I thought he was pretty disappointing. Certainly from where I was sitting he didn’t appear to have anything like the scope of the winner. If he were mine he would go back over hurdles as I think there is still a strongly-run decent handicap in him. Hard to knock Gilgamboa although if you were being picky it looked to me as if he was dragging his hind legs through the fences. That said he never looked like falling.

    #495046

    stilvi
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    Cheltenham 3.00
    Blaklion
    €30 win @ 2/1 (B365)

    Good luck with this one. Notice the hood isn’t listed?

    I would be wary of Minella Present, Champagne Present and Port Melon so I will definitely just be watching for the future. Race of day for me.

    #495050
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    Cheltenham 3.00
    Blaklion
    €30 win @ 2/1 (B365)

    Good luck with this one. Notice the hood isn’t listed?

    I would be wary of Minella Present, Champagne Present and Port Melon so I will definitely just be watching for the future. Race of day for me.

    I actually hadn’t noticed that Stilvi, that’s interesting. He takes a bit of stoking up so perhaps that’s why they’ve left it off. He provided me with by far my biggest win of the season last time out and I just felt he could be called the winner a long way from home, even though he was under the pump. He finds plenty for pressure and I think there was plenty in the locker last time if something had come to him. I had hoped Dell Arca would go for the fixed brush hurdle at Haydock, for which he is 12/1, as he looked made for it imo. Thought 4/1 was big enough tomorrow, a decent little race. Colour Squadron struggles to get his head in front and the likes of Dell Arca, Champagne West and Urban Hymn could improve past him. Looks a good card tomorrow, and the weekend promises to be top notch with cards from Cheltenham and Punchestown both days.

    #495076
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    Cheltenham 3.00
    Blaklion
    €10 win @ 4/1 (Coral)

    - €290

    #495083

    darren83
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    • Total Posts 4454

    Tommy what you think of CHAMPAGNE FEVER he my gold cup horse at 20/1 hope he goes for that race not Ryanair

    #495094

    stilvi
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    Cheltenham 3.00
    Blaklion
    €10 win @ 4/1 (Coral)

    Is this some sort of new account offer as to date the horse doesn’t appear to have been any bigger than 9/4?

    #495104
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    Cheltenham 3.00
    Blaklion
    €10 win @ 4/1 (Coral)

    Is this some sort of new account offer as to date the horse doesn’t appear to have been any bigger than 9/4?

    It is my first bet with Coral but it wasn’t a new account offer. They just had the offer for a limited period at 8.30 this morning, 4/1 Blaklion for up to a tenner.

    #495134
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5533

    I couldn’t pick my nose on here at the moment, only seem to back winners when the site is down and out :lol:

    #495136

    stilvi
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    • Total Posts 4584

    I couldn’t pick my nose on here at the moment, only seem to back winners when the site is down and out :lol:

    I think everyone has bad spells, hopefully it won’t last long. Perhaps a few smaller each-ways at bigger prices might help turn things around?

    It was a good thing I didn’t part with any money on the race. Was lucky enough to have a free bet on the race and plumped for Minella Present but he was effectively beaten once Johnson somewhat strangely decided it was a good idea to hold up a horse who wouldn’t settle.

    #495151
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    I couldn’t pick my nose on here at the moment, only seem to back winners when the site is down and out :lol:

    I think everyone has bad spells, hopefully it won’t last long. Perhaps a few smaller each-ways at bigger prices might help turn things around?

    It was a good thing I didn’t part with any money on the race. Was lucky enough to have a free bet on the race and plumped for Minella Present but he was effectively beaten once Johnson somewhat strangely decided it was a good idea to hold up a horse who wouldn’t settle.

    For sure, last season I had a run of 13 straight losers and another of nine straight, and there were plenty of short price runners among those. What’s a bit frustrating is I’m actually having a decent enough season so far but am having a mare with the ones on here. Think I might revert to what TAPK did last season and use the thread for discussion of horses rather than specific bets. Would take the pressure off and allow me to concentrate on the horses. Will have to have a think about it.

    #495156
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    • Total Posts 5533

    Quick look at tomorrow’s action. I’m happy to see there has been some support for

    Kagpa De Cerisy

    in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. I thought he was worth a punt at 33/1 but I’m not overly confident because there are plenty of negatives against him. It’s encouraging that he pitches up here after an absence as they must feel he can put in a good showing.

    Elsewhere on the Cheltenham card, there is Irish interest in the bumper in the shape of Willie Mullins’

    Daring Carlotta

    . She has won three bumpers now and her price ranges from 7/4 to 5/2 at the moment. While there is plenty of word for her, there are a string of British contenders with wins to their name and I don’t know much about their form. I’d be willing to let Daring Carlotta run at the prices.

    An Irish horse I’d be more interested in across the water is Tony Martin’s

    Heathfield

    , who runs at Uttoxeter. I’m convinced he’s a well handicapped horse, but the question is whether he’ll go on the ground which is described as heavy. He could be so well in that it won’t matter and it will be interesting to see what way his price goes. He’s currently 7/4.

    At Punchestown a couple of Gigginstown horses are of interest.

    Valseur Lido

    should have a straightforward task opening his account over fences if he’s straight enough. He was much the best of these over hurdles and came home in front of some decent horses when second to Faugheen at Punchestown. He’s 8/11 and the market will probably provide a guide to his level of fitness.

    Later on the card,

    Alpha Des Obeaux

    runs in a two and a half mile maiden hurdle. I thought he created an excellent impression in what was surely a greatly inadequate test of stamina over two miles at Cork last time out. The form of that race might not be worth much but I’d be hoping for a big step forward from him.

    In the bumper, the Mullins and Gigginstown team are represented by

    Master Of Verse

    , who won a Dromahane point under Jamie Codd last year. There doesn’t look to be much in the way of opposition so it will be disappointing if he can’t win.

    #495273
    Venture to Cognac
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 13461

    I couldn’t pick my nose on here at the moment, only seem to back winners when the site is down and out :lol:

    For sure, last season I had a run of 13 straight losers and another of nine straight, and there were plenty of short price runners among those. What’s a bit frustrating is I’m actually having a decent enough season so far but am having a mare with the ones on here. Think I might revert to what TAPK did last season and use the thread for discussion of horses rather than specific bets. Would take the pressure off and allow me to concentrate on the horses. Will have to have a think about it.

    You know I’ve been over this course many a time before Tommy, but take some solace in the fact that the most important thing is you’re betting the winners, and putting them up on here is only a bonus. I’m also happy to confirm, that having had a few discussions with you, you have been in very fine form away from here, and you were on fire a few weeks ago. It’s sods law.

    I’ll never do a "normal" DLAP thread again as I think I end up putting up bets for the sake of the thread, and that’s the road to ruin for sure. I remember betting Twigline a couple of years back on an old thread, something like £20 @ 9-4, and I only bet her cause I had a thread. She fell at the last with the race won, and I was more p1ssed off with the thread being £20 down, than I was with losing the cash. Strange. Having a loss on the thread can also put you off putting up bets that go on and win, and that hacks me off as well. I missed out putting up 2 winners on my AP thread, The Wow Signal @ 20’s, and Huntsmans Close @ 16’s because I was more worried about gambling the balance on my thread, than I was about gambling the hard cash. Again……strange.

    Next year, I’ll only be doing Exchange bets, or discussing future targets on my Ante-Post thread, as it’s the laying off where I normally make the profit. I had a great season Ante-Post last year, and was way ahead, had a great time of it, but the thread was still 3 figures red, because of stupid Mug 31’s, each way bets etc. The galling thing with these bets is I only put them up to record some sort of p/l, as it’s always a bit "take my word for it" with Betfair bets.

    I put up Court Minstrel and Operating as horses to follow in the spring on my AP thread, and they both won at very nice prices. I was delighted to have put them up, but didn’t record the bets, so didn’t impact on my p/l on here, but to be honest, I wasn’t that bothered. It’s just a nice feeling to have put up a winner, I think that’s the most important thing.

    I think I hate the red loss figure on here, a lot more than I enjoy the green profit figure, so maybe just discussing fancies, than getting hung up on p/l is the way ahead.

    Having discussed a good few winners there for myself, in the interest of balance and fairness…………despite the wins of The Wow Signal, and Huntsmans Close, there’s been about half a dozen AP bets not recorded, that have been stuffed, and my current p/l on that thread isn’t that far off the mark. The less said about my bet on Golden Wonder in The Munster National, the better :wink:

    #495371
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    I think you’re right Bobby, even though I didn’t put up any bets on here today I was happy to have gave good mentions to Valseur Lido, who won as he liked, Alpha Des Obeaux, who was backed from 2/1 to 4/6 before romping home in a maiden hurdle, and Heathfield at Uttoxeter, who may have slipped under the radar of many with bigger meetings on elsewheretoday. Giving a rundown of my thoughts without detailing the bets could be the way forward, if only for my sanity :)

    I remember that Twigline race well, still hurts :lol:

    #495377
    thehorsesmouth
    thehorsesmouth
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    Looking at tomorrow’s card at Punchestown, the two graded novice chases look very competitive. On first impressions, Chancol in the two miler and Shanahans Turn in the longer race both look overpriced, both at 4/1.

    I think Alechi Inois has been well placed to run up a sequence and could struggle to give weight away tomorrow. Both

    Chancol

    and Sizing Granite won their beginners chases well and the former looks the bet over this course and distance. I’m also keen to take on Very Wood with

    Shanahans Turn

    , who put Wounded Warrior to the sword with ease on his fencing debut. I’m a big fan of Very Wood but I’m not sure tomorrow’s conditions will see him in the best light.

    The maiden hurdle with

    No More Heroes

    and

    Outlander

    looks a real treat. The former is priced at 4/7 by PP with the latter a 6/4 shot and I don’t think either is worth a bet at those odds. Should be a good race.

    Art Of Security

    looks interesting in the bumper. He finished third behind Forgotten Rules on his only start and Sizing John gave the form a boost recently when winning a maiden hurdle.

    I’m really looking forward to the hurdling debut of

    Black Hercules

    at Cork. He was one of the top bumper horses last year looks sure to make a decent staying hurdler. Tomorrow’s trip is two miles but he should be far too good for the opposition even if he’s not a betting opportunity. The well touted

    Sempre Medici

    also runs at Cork and it will be interesting to see how he gets on in the opener.

    At Cheltenham,

    Emerging Talent

    runs in a Grade 2 novice hurdle.

    Commissioned

    looks the main opposition. He comes into the race in good form and the Ferguson horses are flying at the moment. I think Emerging Talent could be quite decent and this race should give us a better idea as to his level of ability.

    In the novice chase, it’s a pity Sgt Reckless doesn’t run. Even though the ground may not be to his liking,

    Court Minstrel

    looks a big price at 7/2. He was the best of these over hurdles and has made an impressive start to the chasing game.

    I’m very happy with my 25/1 about

    Baradari

    , who has been well supported even before being selected by Pricewise. I think he’s capable of a big effort and hopefully he’ll reward me with a place at least. I think

    Clondaw Warrior

    is going to be a big danger. He actually won a bumper at the course and looks a completely new horse now that he’s gone to Willie Mullins.

    Last but not least a mention to the great

    Hurricane Fly

    , who bids for a 20th Grade 1 victory. I think he could be up against it tomorrow but really hope he can do it. He’ll raise the roof in Punchestown if he does.

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