2018 Queen Anne Stakes

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This topic contains 100 replies, has 23 voices, and was last updated by MarkTT MarkTT 2 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 61 through 75 (of 101 total)
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  • #1354891

    nwalton
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    • Total Posts 1429

    thanks ham couldn’t find it anywhere

    #1356715
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8215

    I’ve done Recoletos here. I think he did really well to win last time after losing ground at the start of the race.

    Looks like he’s improved from last season and I don’t feel this Queen Anne is a vintage renewal by any means. Toyed with taking 14/1 but decided to wait and get more of a feel if he would turn up.

    Hopefully he can recoup the ante-post losses on Le Brivido, who I think they made a balls up with trying him against proper sprinters over 6F. A real numb nuts decision that may end up being the ruination of the horse’s career. It’s just not a good idea taking a horse out of it’s comfort zone. They should have gone one way or the other with the colt and either pi55ed or got off the pot.

    If it comes up testing Recoletos will have no problems getting the trip.

    8/1 was the odds of reward and I think he’ll go close and is potentially underrated.

    Recoletos 8/1 to get the meeting off to a good start hopefully.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1356725
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    • Total Posts 3300

    I have just had my first Royal Ascot bet

    RHODODENDRON at 3/1.

    Hope this will be a good start for the week for me!!

    #1356770
    Pants
    Pants
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    • Total Posts 539

    Agree with Steve, Recoletos is under estimated in the market, has a similar chance to Rhododendron but is twice the price. He’ll do for me.

    #1356793
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
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    • Total Posts 1912

    I’m against Rhododendron here

    I’ll be playing Benbatl but may have a small side bet on Recoletes here too. I’m hearing lots of good vibes regarding the latter.

    #1356863
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
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    • Total Posts 8215

    I think Rhododendron is too short now. There isn’t a lot between several of them on ratings and I would be thinking 5/1 would be a favourite’s price in an open enough affair.

    Recoletos hasn’t had the chance to show what he can do at a mile on a sound surface but I though he did well to come from far enough off the pace last time out, in the Prix D’Ispahan at ParisLongchamp.

    Recoletos has been nibbled in to an average of 11/2 now and I hope the jockey keeps him more prominent dropped to a mile and likely livelier ground that last time.

    Benbatl did me a couple of good turns out in Dubai but I wonder how he’ll work out back in Britain and he seems a bit better at 9F plus, being 0/2 at a mile, and he did run in the Derby last season. Lightning Spear doesn’t win often enough for my liking and I feel maybe last time was as close as he’ll come to landing a big one.

    Not a confident bet on Recoletos but I felt he was worth a go in a race where none inspire me as banker material.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1356927
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 23900

    We must stop agreeing with each other, Steve.

    Rhod is imo very short, considering only a short head in front of Lightning Spear last time and had a positional advantage. I’ve laid some 3/1.
    Am interested in the next three in the market.
    Had a bit of 7/1 Recoletos matched some time ago, just a little concerned about whether he’ll be as good on a firm surface/participation; and will he be given too much to do?
    You’re right Steve, Lightning Spear doesn’t win very often; possibly more consistent when fresh too. But that is imo more than made up for by being more than double the price for an arguably unlucky short head Lockinge defeat. Also, that inconsistency/difficult to win with may be exaggerated to a degree by barely staying a mile when stamina is at a premium at this trip. Possibly best on a sound surface when racing at a mile. Surprised he’s so big accross the board, taken the 8/1 and looking to get some more.
    I like Benbatl and he likes Royal Ascot – very genuine and won last year over further. Showed enough speed at 9f last time out, a 3 1/4 lengths victory in the Dubai Turf… Although did get first run there is proven on a firm surface. Am looking to get some 6/1.

    value is everything
    #1356976
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 19134

    You can run your clock by Lightning Spear. Great 1st run followed by decent but not near winning ones.
    Agree with the fast going will help him though but is that not a negative for Recoletos.? I’ve got Rhod down as the nap of the meeting and anything above 2/1 looks good to me.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357002
    raymo61
    raymo61
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    Sorry to say I agree with Nath about Rhododendron. NAP material this and at 3/1 ish is a great bet!!

    Maybe we are fools opposing the experts Steve and Ginge but I have always been a bit of a rebel!! LOL

    #1357068
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 23900

    You can run your clock by Lightning Spear. Great 1st run followed by decent but not near winning ones.
    Agree with the fast going will help him though but is that not a negative for Recoletos.? I’ve got Rhod down as the nap of the meeting and anything above 2/1 looks good to me.

    I don’t think there’s a pattern like that, Nathan.

    He certainly put in a better performance second time out than first time out in 2015 – albeit when still on the upgrade.

    In 2016 a good 1 3/4 lengths 3rd behind Tepin in the Queen Anne on reappearance. Then – yes – on the face of it disappointing in the Sussex, but why? Dropped out last in a slowly run mile at Goodwood is asking for trouble, having to come very wide in order to get a run. In the circumstances did as well as could be expected.

    In 2017 a good second to Ribchester on reappearance before never going at Ascot second time out. Why? Officially “good-firm” ground, but if I remember rightly wasn’t the only course record to go. Without any doubt in my mind unofficially proper firm ground and Lightning Spear not the only horse to act on it.

    So although possible he doesn’t go as well second time out, the chance of that being the case has imo been exaggerated. There are other valid reasons for those two disappointments.

    …And it can’t be anything to do with not being able to perform back to back either.
    Lightning Spear ran very well in last year’s Sussex Stakes. Came there to win the race and just faultered close home – not appearing to stay on the heavy going – but still less than a length behind the winner. Then – with fewer days off than here – less than a month later won the Celebration Mile.

    In 2016 won that same Celebration Mile before what was one of his best performances, 3rd in the QEII next time out – beaten only 1 and 1/2 a length by Minding and Ribchester on good-firm. (Albeit longer between the two races).

    So it’s certainly nothing to do with being back to back.

    Although his consistency isn’t absolutely ideal… Taking in to account the horses he’s been up against, ground (sometimes not staying a mile on very soft and once too firm to act) and the 5 races abroad (has never performed well overseas)… And occasionally being given too much to do… His performances have imo been more consistent than people give him credit for.

    Am a little concerned if it looks very firm he might come out.

    Rhododendron has imo a better chance than Lightning Spear, because of her consistency. However, imo the markets have over-estimated her chance. May be judging too much on the trainer’s form in the race/Royal Ascot rather than her own form.

    Indeed, as I said: Good-firm would be a negative; but sometimes the price available makes it worth taking a chance it won’t be a problem. ie Recoletos’s form is right up there with the best of these and is still unexposed at the trip (could yet be better). Had/if the ground been/is softer I’d make him favourite.

    Am also more inclined to excuse a French horse that’s not yet raced on good-firm. In my experience French goings are harder to work out due to some strange rail movements. I have also taken a similar chance on Wooton in the St James’s Palace… Also, although the greater chance is for one that hasn’t run on it before doesn’t act… There’s also a possibility – as Steve rightly said – for a horse to improve its form on the new surface… Particularly so because from what I’ve seen of Recoletos’s action (I could be wrong) it doesn’t look one of a typical easy ground specialist.

    value is everything
    #1357071
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 19134

    Ginge if you are worried about Lightning Spear’s stamina the course won’t help either 0/6

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357073
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    Good post by the way. I think LS will find it tougher at Ascot than Newbury the course is stiffer and in my opinion he runs his best proper fresh after a long break. Price was massive difference in Lockinge, I was on at 25’s, 20’s and 16’s. Price difference looks poor this time around imo

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357077
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Ginge if you are worried about Lightning Spear’s stamina the course won’t help either 0/6

    Sometimes course stats are informative, sometimes not Nathan.

    Yes, if there’s a particularly fast pace on softish ground he may not stay the mile on a stiffish course. But it is unlikely to be soft.

    …And looking further than those bare stats shows Lightning Spear having a reasonable record there.

    Included in those six races are two of his best performances.
    Total of 1 3/4 lengths 3rd to Tepin (just 1 1/4 behind the second – Lockinge winner Belardo) in the 2016 Queen Anne…
    And even better in the QEII. Only beaten 1 1/2 lengths by 2016 horse of the year Minding (with Champion miler Ribchester only a length in front second). Running to that form would imo be good enough to win on Tuesday.

    Do you think Lightning Spear should’ve done better in either of those two runs?

    I was coming back from the Peak District on Lockinge day and had I seen Lightning Spear’s price I would’ve been on him too.

    However, that price can not be fairly compared with his price today. He was going in to Newbury after three below par performances. Tuesday he’ll be going in to Ascot having been unlucky not to beat the filly who’ll be around 3/1 favourite for the race – Rhododendron. Only beaten a short head – I say again – only beaten a short head; with the filly having raced on the fastest strip of ground. On ratings – unless believing one was below form – the two horses need to be rated of equal ability. That’s not to say they have the same chance here. How much each individual punter knocks off Lightning Spear’s chance for inconsistency etc is up to the individual.

    To be worth a bet @ 11/4 Rhod needs to be considered a better than 27% chance to be a good bet.
    To be worth a bet @ 8/1 Lightning Spear only needs to be considered a better than 11% chance to be a good bet.

    Others may disagree, but currently I’d have the favourite as around an 18% (fair 9/2) chance and Lightning Spear 14% (fair 6/1).

    value is everything
    #1357078
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    • Total Posts 19134

    Ginge the Tepin race was LS 1st time out that year, hence a good run in my view
    The QE11 is a fair enough shout and the horse has have ability and if he reproduces a run like that will be thereabouts I just feel the Lockinge was the day if ever he was going to land a group 1, hope I’m wrong as I like the horse alot.
    In last years Queen Anne, LS was never a factor despite running a very encouraging race in the Lockinge and that Lockinge was on the soft side going wise and QA on the quick side

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1357088
    MarkTT
    MarkTT
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    • Total Posts 2274

    I’m struggling to see why Benbatl isn’t favourite.

    Has improved since the Classic campaign, course form, high cruising speed; he might not win, obviously, but others have more questions to answer.

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