The Cheltenham Certainty.

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This topic contains 203 replies, has 38 voices, and was last updated by Fran the man Fran the man 1 year, 7 months ago.

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  • #1229873
    The Ante-Post King
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    Anyone wanting a thrill for 4 days without having to endure the nightmare of which horse runs where in the world of Willie Mullins should take the Willie Mullins to have 10 winners or more at 5/2. At least that way we are cheering everything he runs and not worrying about whether the likes of my banker Black Hercules goes ‘down in trip or up in trip or stays at the same trip (3m)’ as Danny Mullins suggested yesterday.Of course TAPK has taken the 8/1 about this horse winning any race at the festival because thats what I do.I have also taken the Willie Mullins to win 5 or more races on Day 1 at 12/1 now 10/1. and the Willie Mullins to win 4 or more races on Day 1 at 7/2 now 3/1. At least I can honestly say I dont care which of Willies 3 wins the Champion hurdle or his 2 big guns in the ‘Supreme’.Even if ‘Roi des Francs’ beats me in the 4 miler I’ll be happy.Of course I want to see ‘Douvan’ do it in the Arkle and ‘Annie’ to get over the last on 4 legs will help but I reckon willie will have ‘Valseur Lido’ in the 3m handicap too as a bonus.Best of all though is I dont have to worry about the machine Vautour running as he’s a player in everything.No TAPK has definitely found the ‘Certainty of the week wager’ as in 30 yrs of backing horses at Cheltenham I have never seen a stable full of talent like I have this year in Willie Mullins yard.

    #1229874
    steeplechasing
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    That’s a very bold call, Gord. I said on another thread the man is a genius (not you, Mullins). But to win more than 35% of the races at a meeting where some of the best in history took years even to get off the mark, well, I wish you luck 🙂

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

    #1229875
    Nathan Hughes
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    He couldn’t have been far off last year and his stable looks even stronger this time around
    Un De Sceaux is the weeks certainty btw…… 😉

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1229878
    The Ante-Post King
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    Like I say having watched Cheltenham festivals before ‘Dawn run’ won the Gold cup on that incredible day in 86 I have geared my betting round everyone since.In years gone by I have taken on the Mullins hotpots but like a Grand Cru Chablis Willie has a vintage label (rhymes with stable) of talent this year,more than any other year.Winner 1 Min has been bought to win the ‘Supreme’ for a record 4th successive year for the Riccis and I cant fault his credentials.Yorkhill is a more than able sub.Winner 2 is Douvan he only needs to jump to win and again I’ve seen enough to suggest he’ll do that easily.Winner 3 can be either Faugheen,Arctic Fire or Nichols Canyon , I really dont mind which,for betting purposes I hope the Fav gets beat!Winner 4 is Annie Power again if she jumps she wins.Winner 5 could easily be Valseur Lido a class horse in a handicap and Willie could get a couple of handicap victories too this year.Winner 6 either Black Hercules or Roi des Francs even possibly Sambremont ,I hope the former mind.6 winners on day 1 might be pushing it but such is the talent it would not surprise
    Day 2 kicks off with Belshill for Winner 7,again the possibility of ‘supersub’ Yorkhill is a solid back up.The RSA looks trickier but I expect a runner and that could be Kilultagh Vic,we wont count him as winner 8 though so as not to get greedy.Rennetti in the Coral Cup anyone,if he starts he’s a player but again we wont count that one.Lets for Nathans sake say Winner 8 is his Un des Sceaux then,has to be a player anyway.Winner 9 can be one of his Bumper horses,Augusta Kate is well touted.
    Winner 10….Well if either Shaneshill or Vautour dont win the JLT or Ryanair I aint the King of foresight Joe if thats where they end up.That leaves a Gold cup I can just enjoy drinking Champagne and willing Lydias 66/1 shot home! Willie has others like Limini.Petit Mouchoir and Up for Review all serious players so I’m feeling happy 2 months prior to kick off….I just hope they all get there now. Confidence is King!

    #1229885
    KingSprinterSacre
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    Like I say having watched Cheltenham festivals before ‘Dawn run’ won the Gold cup on that incredible day in 86 I have geared my betting round everyone since.In years gone by I have taken on the Mullins hotpots but like a Grand Cru Chablis Willie has a vintage label (rhymes with stable) of talent this year,more than any other year.Winner 1 Min has been bought to win the ‘Supreme’ for a record 4th successive year for the Riccis and I cant fault his credentials.Yorkhill is a more than able sub.Winner 2 is Douvan he only needs to jump to win and again I’ve seen enough to suggest he’ll do that easily.Winner 3 can be either Faugheen,Arctic Fire or Nichols Canyon , I really dont mind which,for betting purposes I hope the Fav gets beat!Winner 4 is Annie Power again if she jumps she wins.Winner 5 could easily be Valseur Lido a class horse in a handicap and Willie could get a couple of handicap victories too this year.Winner 6 either Black Hercules or Roi des Francs even possibly Sambremont ,I hope the former mind.6 winners on day 1 might be pushing it but such is the talent it would not surprise
    Day 2 kicks off with Belshill for Winner 7,again the possibility of ‘supersub’ Yorkhill is a solid back up.The RSA looks trickier but I expect a runner and that could be Kilultagh Vic,we wont count him as winner 8 though so as not to get greedy.Rennetti in the Coral Cup anyone,if he starts he’s a player but again we wont count that one.Lets for Nathans sake say Winner 8 is his Un des Sceaux then,has to be a player anyway.Winner 9 can be one of his Bumper horses,Augusta Kate is well touted.
    Winner 10….Well if either Shaneshill or Vautour dont win the JLT or Ryanair I aint the King of foresight Joe if thats where they end up.That leaves a Gold cup I can just enjoy drinking Champagne and willing Lydias 66/1 shot home! Willie has others like Limini.Petit Mouchoir and Up for Review all serious players so I’m feeling happy 2 months prior to kick off….I just hope they all get there now. Confidence is King!

    Absolutely love this thread and this post. Im with u on black hercules, if Patrick gets his way he runs here and i had took the 10s too. Also backed shaneshill which i laid my reasons out for in the novice chasers thread.
    Anyhow, the reason for my post. Dont back augusta kate. She doesnt go to cheltenham this year. She goes to the aintree race. Limini in the mares novice hurdle you can mark up for a winner though!

    #1229886
    Nathan Hughes
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    betfair sportsbook are 3/1 on the Mullins 10+ winners

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1229897
    Gingertipster
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    If UDS and Djakadam run well in their preps and both make it to their respective races… Then Vautour will be the biggest cert in the Ryanair. Could well start 1 to 2. But all three need to make it to Cheltenham in good form for Vautour to go for the Ryanair.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 11 months ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1229912
    JAMIEDB9007
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    I’m with the TAPK on this one, I reckon he could have 12 winners, if not more….Limini and Vroum Vroum Mag haven’t even been mentioned, let alone a few more in handicaps….he has a decent record in the bumper also! Add to that the certainties already mentioned….5/2 is a steal. It really will be the Mullins benefit meeting this year. Never has one trainer had so much fire power in one season…..

    #1229913
    JAMIEDB9007
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    Sorry TAPK, didn’t read your second post in too much detail. Didn’t realise you mentioned Limini or the bumper….apparently Fulham Road is Ricci’s best bumper horse, so Mullins no doubt will have a handful in this as well.
    It will pay to back Mullins all week, I think the 3/1 for 4 winners on day one is smashing bet.

    #1229919
    KingSprinterSacre
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    Sorry TAPK, didn’t read your second post in too much detail. Didn’t realise you mentioned Limini or the bumper….apparently Fulham Road is Ricci’s best bumper horse, so Mullins no doubt will have a handful in this as well.
    It will pay to back Mullins all week, I think the 3/1 for 4 winners on day one is smashing bet.

    Fulham Road is out. Fractured leg. My antepost vouchers were done on this also.

    #1229922
    JAMIEDB9007
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    Damn!

    #1229926
    Gingertipster
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    Just to bring a bit of reality in to this:

    Am a great fan of Willie Mulins, but there does seem to be a lot of hype going around and bookies are tapping in to that. For sure has a lot of good horses and will win a lot of races. But bookies alter all odds (including Mullins horses) depending on how much chance each horse is thought to have and liabilities, including running up multiple bets. So if Mullins does well on the first day, then many are likely to start shorter than their actual chance on day 2 and if he does well there day 3 horses could start shorter etc.

    Even if a Mullins horse has by far the best chance of winning… Say a 10/11 fav and it’s 7/1 bar, even if those odds are an accurate assessment of its actual chance – allowing for a bookmaker’s mark up he’s still only got around a 50% chance of winning and (something some punters seem to be forgetting) a 50% chance of losing.

    Even if Mullins has loads of winners it will pay to oppose Mullins horses when over-bet.

    value is everything
    #1229927
    Gingertipster
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    If UDS and Djakadam run well in their preps and both make it to their respective races… Then Vautour will be the biggest cert in the Ryanair. Could well start 1 to 2. But all three need to make it to Cheltenham in good form for Vautour to go for the Ryanair.

    Taken Evens NRNB BOG.

    value is everything
    #1229937
    The Ante-Post King
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    If UDS and Djakadam run well in their preps and both make it to their respective races… Then Vautour will be the biggest cert in the Ryanair. Could well start 1 to 2. But all three need to make it to Cheltenham in good form for Vautour to go for the Ryanair.

    Taken Evens NRNB BOG.

    Good old Ginge…Evens is Xmas about that bet pal.Well Spotted.How about this conundrum then?
    8/1 Mullins to win Supreme,Arkle,Champion hrdle and Mares on the Tuesday.
    On Good ground I cant oppose Min for the 1st leg.If there’s cut Yorkhill could also run in that.In the 2nd leg its all about Douvan standing up as is the last leg with Annie Power getting over the last so the 8/1 really covers the 3 Mullins horses in the Champion hurdle and realistically one cant oppose Faugheen so is 8/1 really value for what would be a 14/1 accumulator on all 4 favs?

    #1229938
    The Ante-Post King
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    betfair sportsbook are 3/1 on the Mullins 10+ winners

    Took me an eternity to find that bet Nath but had to have some of the 3/1 pal.Cheers

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