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At least I won’t be ending up in the stewards room this year! 😆
Don’t think there’s much chance of something going off at 6f speed. In fact they may well crawl as can’t find a front runner between them.Best Of Days went up considerably in trip and finished 8 1/2 lengths last in the King Ed at Royal Ascot on reappearance. Takes a drop in class and trip. Raced only on good-firm. Winner of Group2 Royal Lodge at two and the only 3 year old in this race. Should come on for the run but needs to and 7/2 hardly looks value all things considered.
Spark Plug came from rear (as usual) to win a listed race at Sandown. This looks harder and far from certain to get the race run to suit. Doubt about very soft ground.
Mount Logan‘s coming back in trip despite looking one paced against Lord Yeats in Fred Arher. trainer is in excellent form. Winner on good-soft, one poor run on heavy and both sire and dams sire’s progeny record on very soft are not so good. However, if acting on ground the trainer is in good form and nobody better at reacting to a potential slow pace than SDS (though Mount Logan is normally held up).
I backed Thikriyaat last time out in the Critereon, over 7f. Looked a genuine filly previously but disappointed me grealy there with heaad carriage and finishing effort. Appendges aren’t the norm for Stoutey, but first time cheekpieces is no surprise.. On the face of it has the best form on offer, but with questions of temperament and stamina – going up 3f in trip and with likely soft ground – not one for me this time.
What About Carlo? Well, he may be a handicapper but he’s a bloody good one. Beaten less than 1/2 length in two Class 2 handicaps off a mark of 100 latest starts… And no problems with either trip or ground and yard are in good form. Trouble is pace! May struggle in a sprint for home. That said, at the prices it’s imo worth the chance @ around 8/1 or more, in a race where others have even more question marks. It’s also possible stable companion Toulson might go on. Latter really is “only a handicapper” and has masses to find. But is one of only a few to be proven on soft and can race prominently. I’ve had an 84/1 saver just in case.
Restorer has soft form too and ran well enough to be 2 1/4 lengths 7th in the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot over this trip. However, he doesn’t have a good win to run ratio. At least he can race in touch.
My bet to win the most money is Arthenus. Hasn’t hit form yet in two starts this seson; outclassed in Hardwicke – last of 12 on good-firm, latest. However, has been held up this term, better form when racing prominently. Made running when 1 1/2 lengths 2nd to New Bay (who didn’t need to be at his best). Then won a 10f listed race (tracking pace)… Both on good ground. Looked at home whenever there’s give in the ground. Around 9/1 (I’ve had double figures!Value Is EverythingI think the value at the current prices is Mount Logan at 7/2… not necessarily think should win but I’d have it at 5/2… So I had a small bet.
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