Stayers Hurdle 2018

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2018 Stayers Hurdle 2018

This topic contains 300 replies, has 51 voices, and was last updated by  moehat 6 months ago.

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  • #1337395
    KevMcAlley
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    I’m dizzy just reading how many times Ginge has run around in circles.

    Steeple, Many Clouds had superior stamina. His threshold was higher than that of his opponents, it’s that simple as Voleur has been stating for the past 3-4 pages in my opinion.

    The term ‘class’ or ‘classy’ I see as a horse that can perform to the same level regardless of trip, so basically a horse that can ADAPT his speed & stamina to suit the distance being run. Kauto Star being a perfect example.

    Hope after all this that Supasundae wins the Stayers :yahoo:

    #1337401
    Gingertipster
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    With doubtful runner – Apples Jade.
    Disappointments last time out – Lil Rockerfeller, Unowhatimeanharry.
    Questionable temperament – Lami Serge.
    Unseen – Penhill.
    Needing to improve – Supasundae, Wholestone, Beer Goggles, The Worlds End, Thomas Campbell.
    Possible switchers – Yanworth, Yorkhill, Finians Oscar, Bacardys…
    …And Lami Serge could yet go the other way – to the Ryanair.
    Coming back from injury – Killultagh Vic…

    Sam Winner has a lot going for him.

    Lil Rockerfeller could still be the value, Mick Fitz said today that he wasn’t right after Ascot but will be fine come Cheltenham. The winner of last year’s Stayers Hurdle sadly isn’t with us anymore, third looks on the downgrade, fourth injured. Second, Lil Rockerfeller is 27/1 and has this season already beaten the horse that followed home Sam Spinner last time out – Lami Serge.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1337431
    Voleur
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    Without wanting to drag the whole thing back up again, I think Istabraq illustrates my point about class very well.

    On the flat, his lack of speed meant he was only a below-average handicapper, rated somewhere in the 80’s I believe. Therefore, it could not be said Istabraq was an inherently class horse, he certainly didn’t have this unfathomable something back then.

    When stepped up to 2 miles however, the blend of speed and stamina that he had was ideal for that particular distance, allowing him to assert his class over his rivals. Class is relative, the correct blend of speed and stamina is required for a horse to be considered class in any one particular division.

    As for the Stayers, I’ve given a lot of thought to taking the 12/1 NRNB on Bacardys. If he turns up, you would assume it’s because Penhill doesnt make it. If Penhill does make it and Bacardys still lines up, then they must believe Bacardys has him covered. We know he already has Finians Oscar covered, albeit over a shorter trip, but Bacardys looks the more stamina laden of the two to me.

    Best case scenario Bacardys and Penhill both make it, Ruby chooses Bacardys eliminating any doubt as to where he stands in the pecking order, goes off 5/2 fav after strong market support. In other words I don’t believe Bacardys will line up and not be Willies firs string, if he doesn’t line up it’s money back.

    #1337539
    Gingertipster
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    What point does “Istabraq illustrate”, Voleur?
    Istabraq wasn’t the easiest to keep sound in his early years and still had potential on the flat when sold. Timeform tipped him for the Ces’ that year. Bred to be a bloody good horse, indeed bred to be a Derby winner – By the best flat sire of his era Saddlers Wells (who was by Northern Dancer) out of Bettys Secret. Derby winner Secreto was by Northern Dancer out of Bettys Secret. Over hurdles Istabraq had different soundness, running in a different code with a different trainer; is it surprising he was a different animal?

    Has anyone said that horses don’t improve? :unsure:
    You’re arguing that 2 + 2 = 4, we all know it = 4.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by Gingertipster Gingertipster.
    value is everything
    #1337563
    Voleur
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    You’ve missed my point entirely. It’s fine, we won’t open this can of worms again.

    #1337586
    KevMcAlley
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    Bacardys being aimed here, Mullins confirmed to the media today.

    • This reply was modified 8 months, 1 week ago by KevMcAlley KevMcAlley. Reason: Typo
    #1337736
    Middle_Of_March
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    With my antepost bet Harry looking like age has caught up with him, I’ve had another look through the market. Thought he was a pretty safe each way bet this year. Ironic as I’d said all through last season that I didn’t think hed win last year.

    Like with Harry looking good last year, the same has to be said for Sam Spinner this year. However, I’ve got the same nagging feeling that he will find one or two too good. So looking at the market:
    – Yorkhill – surely won’t run. Won’t stay anyway imo.
    – Supasundae – don’t think he’s good enough. Was impressive last year to be fair.
    – Apples Jade – Not running. Elliott is adamant she wins the Mares for me. Let’s hope so. She would win this though.
    – Thistlecrack – Out for the season. Bet365 are morally wrong for having him even quoted.
    – Penhill – Who knows what’s up with him?
    – Finians Oscar – Very interesting runner. Will love the step up to 3m imo.
    – Yanworth – I don’t trust the horse to run his race. Won’t back him personally.
    – L’Ami Serge – Has a really decent record at the festival. Traveled beautifully last time behind Sam spinner. Strong chance.
    – Uknowhatimeanharry – As I said already, age has probably caught up with him based on his runs this season. Still an each Way shout I suppose.
    – Wholestone – A grinder who loves the track. Probably would find one or two too good though.
    – The New One – They’ll probably put him in the Champion Hurdle as usual. Has a chance of running here but probably a year or two too late up in trip for this race.

    So at this stage, assuming Apples Jade runs in the Mares, I’d have Finians Oscar @ 9/1 NRNB or L’Ami Serge @ 10/1 NRNB for this. Won’t be adding to my long term Uknowhatimeanharry bet for a little while though. May wait a few weeks and then back one of those two though.

    #1338568
    Zamorston
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    The thing I don’t get is how come the front few in the market aren’t going out?

    In the last couple of weeks this has started to develop into what’s looking a really competitive race…

    Finian’s Oscar, Bacardys, The New One all confirmed that this is their target and all shortened in the market…Yanworth talked of as a maybe for this race and shortened and La Bague Au Roi winning nicely and being talked about for this and shortening too…

    When are they gonna push Sam Spinner out a point or two so I can lump some more on?

    #1338570
    Voleur
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    Unfortunately markets don’t seem to operate like they used to. Its no longer a push – pull effect, they can shorten horses without needing to push out others, to a certain degree at least.

    #1338591
    Vautour
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    Lil Rockerfeller is 27/1 and has this season already beaten the horse that followed home Sam Spinner last time out – Lami Serge.

    Think he was 6lb lighter than Lami Serge on that occasion. But I take your point that he is great value and 27/1; he is a spring horse and 27/1 is tasty

    #1338815
    thejudge1
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    Personally I would be amazed if age was the primary reason for uknowwhatimeanharry’s defeats this season.

    9 is not particularly old for national hunt horse when we’re seeing horses like thenewone and cue card doing very well into relative old age.

    in fact we’ve seen plenty of 9 year olds win the stayers in recent seasons and I prefer to simply see his disappointments this season as being a case of simply being out of form. Didn’t the stable also have American beaten in the Ladbrokes chase at newbury, perhaps they were just out of form at the time?

    Cast your mind back to last year and he was the stayer of last season. Has a great overall record at Cheltenham, a horse with a brilliant turn of foot where you’ll see the race set up for him by plenty in this who like to force the pace.

    It does look a decent race this year to my eyes so it could just be a case of the class of 2018 being a cut above the class of 2017, but if not then the horse is a huge price to my mind. Has there been any news out of the stable about his well being? slightly concerning that he’s not running in the cleeve.

    #1338816
    thejudge1
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    If you are a gym regular, set your treadmill to 13mph and see how long you last. It is an astonishing speed to run at for so long, a superhuman speed. I’m convinced that top sports performers – human or animal – really are a class apart.

    or they’re just taking lots of drugs 😉

    #1338818

    ham
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    Take all the drugs you want in the world and youll still be unable to run that speed for a length of time. Its something else that makes it possible.

    #1338827
    KevMcAlley
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    Judge – Harry had a few ‘issues’ they found after his defeat LTO according to Harry Fry and they’re wanting to keep him fresh and well for Cheltenham.

    Fry said they have sorted the issues and that he’s back working well again IIRC, was on the Talksport programme Saturday morning.

    Fry was bang out of form when he was beat and Fry mentioned that also, so can definitely see your angle at him being overpriced.

    #1338836
    thejudge1
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    that’s good news thanks :good:

    not normally one for forgiving horses as I’m a bit of a results slave but feel this fellow deserves another chance- and as you say there’s a logical reason for dismissing some of his defeats.

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