St Leger 2017

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion St Leger 2017

This topic contains 147 replies, has 26 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 2 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 148 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1317494
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2065

    Just a feeling I have ginge… think Capri was lucky to win that Irish derby Cracksman would have won with a better ride, ok the the form has worked out but there’s nothing he’s ever done which has blown me away.. I could say that about the whole field but for Crystal Ocean, who last time looked like a top class animal, ok he might not stay but I’m happy to roll the dice at 4-1 against a bunch of plodders.

    #1317513
    Kentucky Spring
    Kentucky Spring
    Participant
    • Total Posts 361

    I don’t know the prices (can only lay on the tote from Denmark), I would go for win & place on the Frankel son Count Octave:
    A 2-y-o debut 3rd to Monarchs Glen, a 3-y-o debut win, then just 5 lengths of Venice Beach in the Chester Vase(Gr.3), a Month later beaten a neck by Stradivarius in the Gr.2 Queens Vase, the a 1st miss when 2nd as favourite at Goodwood, but had obviuosly not been at his best, when NR in a Gr2 three days earlier, won by Arc possible Cracksman.
    This will only be his 6th run so far. I believe he’s improving the right way, if he is back to the same soundness that saw him finish 2nd to Stradavarius.

    My other horse for win & place is described well elsewhere. Rekindling, and he could bag it for young O’Brien.

    Best Wishes
    Silk

    #1317529

    greenasgrass
    Participant
    • Total Posts 609

    I’ve joined Raymo and KS with a sporting bet on Count Octave in the hope that Frankel’s good autumn can continue. Soft ground, 1m6f….it’s nearly as good as the jumps 😉

    #1317533
    Kentucky Spring
    Kentucky Spring
    Participant
    • Total Posts 361

    I’ve joined Raymo and KS with a sporting bet on Count Octave in the hope that Frankel’s good autumn can continue. Soft ground, 1m6f….it’s nearly as good as the jumps 😉

    Just got this on twitter https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/lynch/st-leger-preview-count-on-frankel-1392017

    Best Wishes
    Silk

    #1317541
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21907

    I’ve not invested in Count Octave yet. Not because of form or price, just connections are of the opinion he’s not at his best on soft ground. Been a non-runner/avoided it previously and am concerned he’ll be taken out if it’s soft. I’ll wait for day of race or NRNB.

    value is everything
    #1317546

    Kris
    Participant
    • Total Posts 105

    I am getting increasingly confident about my Venice Beach bet and for a mainly small time punter, and habitual loser, he would dwarf any decent winner I’ve ever had before. I feel compelled to have just one last go, and now that Stan James have pushed him out to 50-1, I cannot resist a few pounds each way on Douglas McCarthur.

    #1317556

    buckers
    Participant
    • Total Posts 211

    I wish you the best of luck Kris.

    I was very happy to be with Douglas McCarthur each way at 40-1, and you might just have talked me into having some 50-1 as well.

    #1317560
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1015

    I am getting increasingly confident about my Venice Beach bet and for a mainly small time punter, and habitual loser, he would dwarf any decent winner I’ve ever had before. I feel compelled to have just one last go, and now that Stan James have pushed him out to 50-1, I cannot resist a few pounds each way on Douglas McCarthur.

    Good luck bud

    I love bets like yours.

    I convinced myself over about 10 weeks at the start of this year that One for Arthur would win the national. I knew it would dwarf any win I’d had before and didn’t want to be greedy but I found myself every few days sticking a little more on it.

    Win or lose, that will remain my favourite bet as I was convinced he was gonna run a big one and the excitement over them weeks for the race built up. That final week was great but nervous all in one. That remains my only ever 4 figure winner as I am a generally small stakes punter other than a couple of times a year when I fancy one antepost like that.

    If Coronet doesn’t win for me, I genuinely will be willing yours on.

    For what it’s worth, I do agree that it is overpriced.

    #1317561

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 688

    Love the enthusiasm on crystal ocean and of course you may be right judge, but hes running against a proven group 1 winner in capri and stadivarius etc

    Of course improvement can happen, but he hasnt shown nearly wnough form to suggest hes a sure thing, if he wins id be really surprised(not saying he wont)

    Douglas macarthur e/w at 40s (considering his form tie with capri) is a great bet in my eyes and capri on the nose is also a great bet at 4s

    Convinced myself to go in again on both 😂 For the 3rd time

    #1317569

    Kris
    Participant
    • Total Posts 105

    Thank you Buckers and MoM, and good luck with that big each way Ham

    #1317573
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21907

    Love the enthusiasm on crystal ocean and of course you may be right judge, but hes running against a proven group 1 winner in capri and stadivarius etc

    Of course improvement can happen, but he hasnt shown nearly wnough form to suggest hes a sure thing, if he wins id be really surprised(not saying he wont)

    Douglas macarthur e/w at 40s (considering his form tie with capri) is a great bet in my eyes and capri on the nose is also a great bet at 4s

    Convinced myself to go in again on both 😂 For the 3rd time

    The number following the word “Group” means nothing, ham. “Form” is how one horse runs against another.

    Crystal Ocean beat Khalidi 3 1/2 lengths at Goodwood last time in the “Group 3” Gordon Stakes and wasn’t all out to do so. Improving and reversing places from Ascot where Crystal Ocean didn’t settle fully and didn’t get the best of rides – rushed around the field. Beating Khalidi by 3 lengths further at Goodwood than Permian did when 1/2 length second in the “Group 2” King Ed at Royal Ascot.
    Permian then went on to all but win the “Group 1” Grand Prix De Paris.

    So on “form” it’s easy to argue Crystal Ocean is a 3 lengths better animal than the “Group 1” horse Permian was. Now, may be Khalidi ran below his best at Goodwood, I doubt it was by very much. May be Permian improved a bit in France, but he had had plenty of racing before that and so doubt it was by much – if anything.

    Either way, even as a Capri backer imo Crystal Ocean right now deserves to be rated at the very least close to Group 1 winners Capri and Stradivarius and probably has more improvement in him. Personally, my issue with Crystal Ocean is will he stay the trip in these conditions? If he does I have no doubt he’s good enough.

    value is everything
    #1317577

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 688

    Love the enthusiasm on crystal ocean and of course you may be right judge, but hes running against a proven group 1 winner in capri and stadivarius etc

    Of course improvement can happen, but he hasnt shown nearly wnough form to suggest hes a sure thing, if he wins id be really surprised(not saying he wont)

    Douglas macarthur e/w at 40s (considering his form tie with capri) is a great bet in my eyes and capri on the nose is also a great bet at 4s

    Convinced myself to go in again on both 😂 For the 3rd time

    The number following the word “Group” means nothing, ham. “Form” is how one horse runs against another.

    Crystal Ocean beat Khalidi 3 1/2 lengths at Goodwood last time in the “Group 3” Gordon Stakes and wasn’t all out to do so. Improving and reversing places from Ascot where Crystal Ocean didn’t settle fully and didn’t get the best of rides – rushed around the field. Beating Khalidi by 3 lengths further at Goodwood than Permian did when 1/2 length second in the “Group 2” King Ed at Royal Ascot.
    Permian then went on to all but win the “Group 1” Grand Prix De Paris.

    So on “form” it’s easy to argue Crystal Ocean is a 3 lengths better animal than the “Group 1” horse Permian was. Now, may be Khalidi ran below his best at Goodwood, I doubt it was by very much. May be Permian improved a bit in France, but he had had plenty of racing before that and so doubt it was by much – if anything.

    Either way, even as a Capri backer imo Crystal Ocean right now deserves to be rated at the very least close to Group 1 winners Capri and Stradivarius and probably has more improvement in him. Personally, my issue with Crystal Ocean is will he stay the trip in these conditions? If he does I have no doubt he’s good enough.

    I understand how you evaluate what form is but it dosent work that way for me how he beat this horse on this race compared to how that horse ran against another, if all races were ran the exact same way i would evaluate in such a way, but the fact of the matter is times in races dont really matter unless your looking at speed figures all it does is confirm ground status, if it worked how you anaylse tge above then if you re ran all handicaps 2/3/4 times back youd get the same result (which obviously you wouldnt) because all it takes is for one horse to dictate a slow or furious pace and the entire race has a different outcome – completely different.

    The fact of the matter is the distances with khalidi were likely ground dependant not maturing or improving form either in those 5 weeks but if you pretend that it is improvement that was the main factor for the way he beat him from may to june then whos to say capri hasnt taken a leap like say cracksman has, arguably youd think that capri comes from a stable who train them in such a manner that hed be entitled to take a much larger step forward than crystal ocean

    (I know you said your in the capri camp)

    And to clarify, the number after the word group means everything, as it stands right now at this stage of the season crystal ocean has 0 group 1 form to his name what he did against a horse on different ground on a different track does not substitute for only being a group 3 winner ( example being, if they ran the goodwood race at ascot on GF with double the runners would crystal ocean have beaten khalidi so far) the answer is no/yes/ask a fortune teller, its fiction your trying to turn into logic and it does not work that way.

    Ps, permian would eat crystal ocean for lunch. Your arguement is your own methodology, you cant say crystal ocean is a 3 length better horse for the reasons youv listed, its fiction.

    Facts are, unless crystal ocean wins this, he still has 0 group 1 form which makes him still only a group 3 horse, you cant say hes a group 1 horse until he actually wins a group 1

    Would be a great pitch for a stud farm
    “Standing is crystal ocean a group 3 winner who technically is a group 1 winner because he beat khalidi further than permian”

    #1317583
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21907

    I understand how you evaluate what form is

    No ham, you evidently don’t.
    You don’t have a clue how I evaluate form.

    value is everything
    #1317586
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2065

    But Ham we’re not trying to sell stallions, we’re trying to assess form, and as Ginger says Crystal Ocean has outstanding form in the book. He wouldn’t be one of the favourites otherwise. The reason he doesn’t have group one form is simple- he hasn’t run in one. They could have run him in the derby but Michael Stoute views him as a long-term prospect. The fact Stoute has aimed him at this rate suggests to me that he thinks he’ll be suited by the distance (his running on third in the dante suggests as much, as well as the win at goodwood of course)

    With improving three year olds group one form isn’t the be all and end all. Did harbour law have group one form? did encke have group one form? did masked marvel have group one form? did conduit have group one form? did sixties icon have group one form? To say you’ll be shocked if crystal ocean wins because he doesn’t have the form suggests to me you are either pocket talking or you are just trying to hype it up.

    #1317602
    steeplechasing
    steeplechasing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4688

    Stradivarius should be 9/2 imo and is a fine bet at 13/2.

    Improving in leaps and bounds, ground drying out, with a trainer going for his 5th win in the race – too big: back it.

    Never argue with a fool. He will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience, then onlookers might not be able to tell the difference. https://lazybet.com/

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 148 total)

You must be logged in to reply to this topic.