St Leger 2017

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This topic contains 147 replies, has 26 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 1 day, 20 hours ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 148 total)
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  • #1317313

    charlie87
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    • Total Posts 442

    Crystal Ocean has done little to justify being favourite IMO. Defoe’s price is, as others have stated, ridiculous.

    Clearly more of a case to be made for Capri, but I wouldn’t have him either. I am not convinced he stayed the Derby trip at Epsom and the way the Irish Derby unfolded was a bit of a gift. That in itself is enough for me to steer clear. I also noted with interest that AOB has sent 2 of his 12 Irish Derby winners here and both were turned over at 2/5 & 9/4 favs. I can see Capri going off fav and being turned over too.

    Stradivarius @ 13/2

    #1317332
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Participant
    • Total Posts 6796

    I forgot to mention, regarding Coronet, that the form of her Ribblesdale win is utterly woeful, with 1 win and 15 unplaced efforts from 16 subsequent runs. The sole win was from Alluringly in a Listed race that has been working out awfully. Alluringly won that race by a neck and, in all honesty, I don’t think you could rely on anything that ran there to actually be worthy of a 100 rated. Alluringly herself has been unsighted twice since.

    I think Coronet is awful value at 13/2 with Ladbrokes. I reckon she should be 14/1 but hey ho. With the soft/heavy ground I could see Coronet out the back and struggling to close despite the extra distance. I believe Stradivarius is miles better value than the filly at similar enough odds.

    What's all the fuss about Estimate on the Racing Legends Stamps?

    There's always been a second rate Mare on them anyway 😉

    #1317365
    botchy1
    botchy1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1352

    Would be no surprise to see Heffernan booked for Capri in this after last year

    #1317372
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 21594

    I’d have strongly fancied Stradivarius on a sound surface, but form, action and breeding suggests to me one to take on if soft. That’s in complete contrast to Defoe (very rounded action). Soft ground wouldn’t worry me about Capri either, Galileo horses out of 12f winners usually stay really well and has good form on a softish surface. Like Stradivarius, Crystal Ocean is by Sea The Stars who’s more a firm surface sire. Although unlike the Gosden horse, Stoute’s representitive has form with at least some give. However, soft brings stamina more in to the equation and where as I’d be confident Crystal Ocean staying in a truly run St Leger on a sound surface, have far more doubts on soft. If believing the Coronet form with Enable/Queens Trust she has a chance, but unlike Queens Trust was ridden for second that day. Flattered by coming from so far back?

    Officially “Soft” now, forecast is for a fair bit of heavy rain tonight, showers Wednesday, but then very lttle before race time.

    Haven’t had a bet yet, going will imo be crucial. On good ground I’d have had Crystal Ocean and Stradivarius first and second favourite over Capri and Defoe in my workings out. On soft the opposite. Wish I’d done this analysis a couple of days ago, before market moves. 🙁

    value is everything
    #1317373
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    • Total Posts 984

    I’ve got quite heavily involved on Capri each-way at 4/1.

    The Irish Derby winner should relish everything about this race and on paper is clearly the best horse in the race.

    I’m quite confident.

    #1317380
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 21594

    Form of the big four make this a well up to standard renewal. However, am quite interested in the Coolmore second string Venice Beach. Chester Vase winner in April and therefore thought of as a staying type; half brother to Arc winner Danedream and by Galileo. Finished just a length behind Shakeel and Permian in 12f Grand Prix De Paris and Ballydoyle’s representitive in what’s usually their favoured St Leger trial – Voltigeur. 6 lengths behind Cracksman, but beat the rest by that far and further. Soft/Heavy would be a little disconcerting, but has form on good-soft and an added stamina test soft brings could even suit. To me, has always looked one that will improve significantly once upped to staying trips.

    Taken 12/1 each way Venice Beach

    value is everything
    #1317408
    Middle_Of_March
    Middle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 768

    I’m not as confident in Glencadem Glory after his Ascot race.

    I backed coronet when she won at Ascot as well as when beaten in the Oaks and I think she’s a good bet here at 14s

    Them two will do for me

    Gwaaarnnn the filly

    This step up in distance will suit my filly down to the ground. I can see her slowly closing them down all the way from 3f out to the line. Just hope the jockey times the run for the finish well.

    #1317414

    mickeyjp
    Participant
    • Total Posts 450

    I’ve got quite heavily involved on Capri each-way at 4/1.

    The Irish Derby winner should relish everything about this race and on paper is clearly the best horse in the race.

    I’m quite confident.

    Dont understand why it isn’t clear favourite. Clearly the best horse on form and if we think he will stay the distance he’s the one to be on. Only issue is the horses interrupted preparation.

    #1317431

    Degaussed
    Participant
    • Total Posts 64

    Looking down the betting, Capri hasn’t ran for two months. Crystal Ocean isn’t sure to get the trip. Defoe I like, but I’d want plenty more points on his price. Stradivarius I rate, and if he drifts a bit further I’d be very interested. I don’t think Coronet wants soft ground, nor is her form particularly appealing. Raheen House I’m a big fan of, but he hasn’t ran for two months and doesn’t have the level of soft ground form I’d be after.

    REKINDLING at 13.00 takes my eye. 5 lengths behind OOSG suddenly doesn’t look too bad in terms of form, he’s Officially Rated 114 so right there in the mix, and he will love the ground and trip.

    #1317435

    MTOTO88
    Participant
    • Total Posts 103

    Form of the big four make this a well up to standard renewal. However, am quite interested in the Coolmore second string Venice Beach. Chester Vase winner in April and therefore thought of as a staying type; half brother to Arc winner Danedream and by Galileo. Finished just a length behind Shakeel and Permian in 12f Grand Prix De Paris and Ballydoyle’s representitive in what’s usually their favoured St Leger trial – Voltigeur. 6 lengths behind Cracksman, but beat the rest by that far and further. Soft/Heavy would be a little disconcerting, but has form on good-soft and an added stamina test soft brings could even suit. To me, has always looked one that will improve significantly once upped to staying trips.

    Taken 12/1 each way Venice Beach

    Hi GT, just wondering if you’ll be tipping every day during St Leger meeting?

    #1317466
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 21594

    Hi GT, just wondering if you’ll be tipping every day during St Leger meeting?

    I’ll be trying to find something every day, Mtoto. Isn’t easy, as the start of this meeting is pretty poor these days. I’ve started a thread in DLAP called “Donny”. :good:

    http://theracingforum.co.uk/forums/topic/donny/

    value is everything
    #1317480
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1800

    Crystal Ocean will pick up and carry this lot :good:

    #1317482
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1800

    Don’t really rate Capri (others have said crystal ocean a suspect stayer but Capri also not certain to stay imo) and Defoe a high class handicapper for me.

    #1317487
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 21594

    Crystal Ocean will pick up and carry this lot :good:

    Don’t really rate Capri (others have said crystal ocean a suspect stayer but Capri also not certain to stay imo) and Defoe a high class handicapper for me.

    Be interested to know why you believe this, Judge? :unsure:

    value is everything
    #1317490

    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 450

    Capri and douglas macarthur e/w at 40/1

    Really like stradivarius and on better ground i think hed win but if it stays as soft/heavy as predicted i dont like any of the others bar the obrien runners

    Defoe has much to prove from his last race and i dont think i would play at the prices although i had previously considered it because he seems to be improving, but his last win was still suspect enough to talk myself out of backing him, although, atzeni at doncaster…….

    Crystal ocean hasnt done nearly enough and i think his price is terrible value

    The rest im not interested in whatsoever

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