Scarborough and Sport ID Strength In Sport Conditions

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  • #1317488
    Gingertipster
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    Difficult to find a “Big Race” at Donny.

    Any views?

    value is everything
    #1317489
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    Scarborough listed 5f:

    Thesme is one of the fastest in the country, more a 4f horse than 5. Ran well last time out at his beloved York and a good second in this last year. But has appeared a weak finisher this season and if going reports are true and with a strong headwind this 5f may be too much of a “test of stamina” as long as the other jockeys do not give Frankie an easy time in front.

    Final Venture is usually ridden up there or tracks pace so shouldn’t be far away today. He’s been more consistent than Thesme this season too, so although there’s nothing between tham on “form”, arguably Final Venture is more likely to run to that form. Good second to old rival Take Cover in Beverley Bullet last time. None of these are sure to act if it comes up really soft, but Final Venture has some form on it some time ago and the below par effort at Goodwood probably more to do with draw/trying to keep up with Battaash.

    Stable companion Desert Law isn’t out of this. Winning a handicap on penultimate start, with 1 1/2 lengths back to Thesme, who’s 12 lbs better off. So in theory Thesme has 6 lbs in hand. Desert Law last time 6th in Beverley Bullet, only 3/4 length behind Final Venture who was giving the same 3 lbs as today. So in theory his stable companion has 3 lbs in hand. But Desert Law is 6/1. Trouble is am not as sure of his effectiveness on the ground. Probably acts on good-soft, but disappointed on soft each time he’s raced on it. That said, winds overnight and this morning are drying the ground.

    Encore D’Or has some good form that’ll give him a chance, but all of it is on the all weather.

    Go On Go On Go On Go On has some good form, but is running as if amiss. Market move either way will probably tell how he’ll run.

    Razmatazz is unraced on the ground, hasn’t had much racing but nothing he’s done suggests he’s up to this.

    I’ve backed Final Venture @ 13/8 with a saver on Desert Law @ around 6/1.

    value is everything
    #1317491
    Gingertipster
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    Sport Id – Strength In Sport Conditions Stakes 1m2f

    Am a fan of Mirage Dancer, one of Stoute’s top four year olds in the making? Well beaten in the Voltigeur, but didn’t fully settle – strike that out. Comes back down in trip here. Has the best form on offer in this race and by far the most likely to improve. Strong head wind and places more emphasis on jockeyship, but Ryan Moore makes less mistakes than most on that account. Chester run behind Cliffs Of Moher suggests will act on the ground. I expect him to win given luck in running.

    Main worry about Mirage Dancer is it’s difficult to find who’s going to lead, so a probability of a slow pace/positional advantage to someone. Mount Logan is not a horse I like, either desperately one paced or is he temperamental? Often placed, rarely wins – last victorious in this race last year. Sometimes held up, sometimes mid-div, they’ve tried everything this season. Prominent last time and so most likely to lead. Should act on the ground unless they get a really heavy storm. Half saver.

    Ed Dunlop is in excellent form, but Red Verdon would need a real test of stamina at this trip to be effective… Invariably a hold up horse and no confirmed front runner in the field. They might be advised to change tactics, trouble is if they do – and make it enough of a test of stamina – they’ll be going fast in to a strong headwind. Probably set it up for something else.

    Ground and trip ideal but Sumbal is unraced since October. Runner-up to Garlingari twice in French Group races giving the winner weight each time when trained there. Not as good in two races last back end for David Simcock. Every chance if capable of that.

    I’ve backed Mirage Dancer @ 6/4 with half a saver on Mount Logan 5/2.

    value is everything
    #1317493

    ham
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    Thesme is alot lower than when second last year 2/1 is reasonable, ground is the ?, id back desert law at 6s

    Would take a flyer on sumbal at 6s because of the ground also

    #1317502
    Gingertipster
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    Scarborough listed 5f:

    Thesme is one of the fastest in the country, more a 4f horse than 5. Ran well last time out at his beloved York and a good second in this last year. But has appeared a weak finisher this season and if going reports are true and with a strong headwind this 5f may be too much of a “test of stamina” as long as the other jockeys do not give Frankie an easy time in front.

    Final Venture is usually ridden up there or tracks pace so shouldn’t be far away today. He’s been more consistent than Thesme this season too, so although there’s nothing between tham on “form”, arguably Final Venture is more likely to run to that form. Good second to old rival Take Cover in Beverley Bullet last time. None of these are sure to act if it comes up really soft, but Final Venture has some form on it some time ago and the below par effort at Goodwood probably more to do with draw/trying to keep up with Battaash.

    Stable companion Desert Law isn’t out of this. Winning a handicap on penultimate start, with 1 1/2 lengths back to Thesme, who’s 12 lbs better off. So in theory Thesme has 6 lbs in hand. Desert Law last time 6th in Beverley Bullet, only 3/4 length behind Final Venture who was giving the same 3 lbs as today. So in theory his stable companion has 3 lbs in hand. But Desert Law is 6/1. Trouble is am not as sure of his effectiveness on the ground. Probably acts on good-soft, but disappointed on soft each time he’s raced on it. That said, winds overnight and this morning are drying the ground.

    Encore D’Or has some good form that’ll give him a chance, but all of it is on the all weather.

    Go On Go On Go On Go On has some good form, but is running as if amiss. Market move either way will probably tell how he’ll run.

    Razmatazz is unraced on the ground, hasn’t had much racing but nothing he’s done suggests he’s up to this.

    I’ve backed Final Venture @ 13/8 with a saver on Desert Law @ around 6/1.

    Dear oh dear. Best three in the race finishing in the last three places. May be should’ve taken notice more of Paul Midgely’s recent form. Final Venture slowly away which is unusual for him and never going well. Desert Law travelled ok for a long way befotre falling away… But if I’d had a bet on Thesme wouldn’t be at all happy. On a horse that barely stays 5f on a quick track on firm fast ground – running on a soft surface on a stiffer track with a strong headwind – speed is his forte and therefore best chance is surely to go as slow as possible and then kick… Why go off so fast early? :unsure:

    To paraphrase that old indi-classic Like 1000 Violins by 1000 Violins:
    Only idiots act this way
    Or so they say
    So thesme go-es
    And now I’m ashamed to say
    What I ought to say
    ‘Bout Frankie’s wo-es

    One for those who say Frankie doesn’t get his brain in gear until running in Group 1’s.

    With the three form horses some way below form something’s got to win. One of the worst listed races seen this season.

    value is everything
    #1317527

    yeats
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    To paraphrase that old indi-classic Like 1000 Violins by 1000 Violins:
    Only idiots act this way
    Or so they say
    So thesme go-es
    And now I’m ashamed to say
    What I ought to say
    ‘Bout Frankie’s wo-es

    One for those who say Frankie doesn’t get his brain in gear until running in Group 1’s.

    Consider Gingertipster, he could have been riding to instructions and she was a big drifter just prior to the off on the exchanges.

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