April 21, 2016 at 14:47 #1243093
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The first G2 of the season looks like a spicy little affair.
Godolphin are wise to the shaky stamina of Adaay and Dutch Connection and have thrown in pacemaker Barchan to ensure a rugged pace for Belardo and Toormore.
Belardo was in trouble for a moment but eventually quickened right away to win on his seasonal debut. With significant rain forecast, the race-fit soft-ground specialist seems a fairly worthy favourite. The form of his QEII Stakes second looks a little dubious given that beaten horses Gleneagles, Integral, Kodi Bear and Territories failed to run to form and the exposed Gabrial was uncomfortably close in third.
Toormore gives away 3lbs all round, but he is effective on any ground and just about trumps Belardo with his Lockinge second, Lennox win and Foret third. He goes very well fresh and is probably being trained for races like this now his limitations have been exposed against the best.
Adaay used his sprint speed to sweep from last to first under an alert ride in a slowly-run Hungerford. He is not the most obvious stayer on pedigree, especially if the rain falls and the Godolphin crew step on it.
Dutch Connection also has a few stamina queries, but he has been seen staying-on strongly enough times over seven to hold out a little hope. Toormore holds him on last year’s Lennox form and is probably value for a bit more superiority over further first time up.
Breton Rock is a consistent horse at this level and below, but you’d be disappointed if none of the fancied horses were able to slam him.
Similar comments apply to Gabrial, who is another aggressively-campaigned miler who does well to hold his form through such a busy schedule.
At the current prices, it’s TOORMORE for me. 5/1 on him and 5/4 on Belardo seems like too much of a disparity to me.April 21, 2016 at 20:01 #1243131
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Belardo will win it easily imoApril 21, 2016 at 22:12 #1243141
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Agreed Toormore is the value in this race and the class horse.
Belardo is too hit and miss to be such a short priced favourite and didn’t beat much last time out.
Nice summing up of the race LS3Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...April 21, 2016 at 22:43 #1243144
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I think Toormore has a chance in the Lockinge so the 5’s look fair enough here. Hannon has a good record in this race previously and like TYF says is good 1st time out. I still think he should of won last years Lockinge, was very keen and lively going to post and sometimes those little pre race quirks can make a difference. Solid horse.
The fav has to be respected but the prices should be closer together. The way the race is likely to be run cant see any of the others winning.Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*nApril 22, 2016 at 14:05 #1243182
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well done LS3,jac and NathanApril 22, 2016 at 14:07 #1243183
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What a star. .thanks nwalton..JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...April 22, 2016 at 14:12 #1243184
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My first impression was that Doyle gave the favourite an awful ride. Did he think he had Frankel underneath him?April 22, 2016 at 14:19 #1243185
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well done Jac and LS and Nathan
But I do think that seriously the race was gifted to the first and second!!
And they tried to ban Geraghty for a not dissimilar ride!!
SHOCKING RIDE!!April 22, 2016 at 14:23 #1243187
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Thanks everyone. It’s lovely when it all works out as you picture it in your head! Adaay didn’t stay and Dutch Connection either didn’t stay or wasn’t fit enough. That was tremendously game from Toormore though. He has been called some names (by his trainer sometimes!) but you can’t fault his courage in seeing off Dutch Connection there.
The Belardo ride was not great, but Doyle was on a tricky horse who didn’t want to run in a straight line when initially asked to quicken. Still, you imagine he would have been involved in the finish if allowed to race a little more handily.April 22, 2016 at 14:24 #1243189
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I thought Dutch Connection travelled best and he looked to have made a winning move. Toormore simply outstayed him today. I would not get carried away with Toormore for the Lockinge myself at what will now likely be shortish odds.
As IBRacing said, Belardo was miles back but I am not sure I would blame the jockey too much. The horse seems to be a bit of a rogue and I think people got carried away by his win in a Listed race last time and seemed to ignore that you had to go way back to his Dewhurst win at two for his previous success.
Such was the frustration with Belardo that he was tried at 6f in the Haydock Sprint Cup, so clearly there were problems.
I actually backed Dutch Connection today and thought for a moment the 6/1 was landed but fair play to Toormore, he’s a battler.
Belardo is becoming the bookies pal.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.April 22, 2016 at 14:50 #1243191
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Dutch Connection at 16’s could be the play in the Lockinge Steve. Toormore has an excellent record 1st time out and if Dutch Connection was to improve from that he could go close again. In the market ahead of Toormore is Time Test who needs quick going and possible 10f and Limato who may well be better for shorter dist. I’ve already got 14’s on Toormore and am happy enough with that, he was giving 3 lbs today and Hannon seems to be hitting the ground now I think he knows the yard are not the strongest that they have been and is trying to pick up anything on offer and will view the Lockinge as a main target now for Toormore whereas perhaps last year he might have had one eye on the Queen Anne.Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
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