Royal Ascot Day 4

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This topic contains 38 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by  davidjohnson 10 years, 3 months ago.

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  • #8179

    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4724

    Haven’t had a good look at the whole card yet but Vortex stood out at 50/1 in the last. Connections went very close in this race last year with Fajr and I think Vortex looks something of a plot. He’s run in handicaps on the straight track at Ascot 5 times, and finished 8/27, 3/26, 4/21, 10/31, 3/20. His last 2 handicap wins have come off marks in the 100’s yet after a spell in the doldrums can race of 97 tomorrow.

    #169375

    Neil Watson
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1421

    This will be the last of my average previews for Royal Ascot.

    3 days gone and have still not had a single bet but will probably have a flutter on Saturday in the big race (Queen Alexandra)

    In the 1m4f King Eddie Stakes Bronze Cannon who has won his two starts this season at Newmarket should put up a bold bid and even though he goes up in trip by 2f should stay plus he has beaten Dr Freemantle.

    Winchester for Dermot Weld is an interesting runner and having been lightly raced he could be a good each way bet and could still have something left in the locker and if he wins this may earn a trip to the Irish Derby.

    The Coronation is an ok affair but i dont get excited about in the same way as the St James Palace but it will still be an interesting race.

    Lush Lashes steps back to 1m and the form at the moment looks pretty good with Michita winning the Ribblesdale on Thursday but 1m may be on the sharp side for he and possibly the Nassau at Goodwood followed by the Filly and Mare Turf would be better options.

    Spacious is of course one that is highly fancied having won last years Park Hill at Doncaster and running 2nd in the 1000 GNS and maybe the one to beat.

    At 4.55 we have the Queens Vase which is probably like a Sun Alliance for 3yo Stayers and Patkai who i saw win at Haydock win over a few weeks ago could stay the extar 4f, Tomintoul Flyer who was in 5th that day won over 1m2f at Kempton on Weds evening, Patkai is open to improvment and a win here will see him become a major player in the St Leger Market.

    Mark Johnston runs two in Captain Webb and Age of Reason with Captain Webb probably the better one as he showed he is tough when he battled on up the Brighton Hill over 1m4f so he does have that typical battle harden mentallity as any Johnston horse does.

    Donnegal of Andrew Balding has ran down the pack in good company such as Twice Over,Rio de la Plata and Doctor Freemantle and this race is easily a much better chance for him to earn some hay for the yard and at about 33-1 would be a good fun each way bet.

    So that is my analysis for Day 4 of Royal Ascot.

    Do hope you have enjoyed my write ups and even though i am a jumps nut i have enjoyed the weeks racing and seen some real quality flat horses doing what they do best.

    #169376

    Friggo
    Member
    • Total Posts 1616

    Tomorrow looks to have it’s fair share of fascinating contests, but most of them look like watching races rather than betting ones. The Crornation Stakes looks wide open and will definitely settle some questions left after the 1000 Guineas, and I’m quite excited to see Cuis Ghaire in the Albany- especially given the stables’ recent history with Galileo 2yo’s.

    The only exception looks to be the last, a good old-fashioned formbook slog where solving the puzzle gives almost as much pleasure as winning a few sheckles from it. I’ve picked out Prior Warning at a big price- a relatively lightly-raced listed winner in France, he’s been badly drawn on 2 of his 3 British starts and in the other he looked to be crying out for further than the 6f. Not a complete e-fit of the winner (PB likely to be needed, ground uncertainty), but more than worth a small pop at 50s I reckon.

    #169381

    LetsGetRacing
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    • Total Posts 1210

    From a betting perspective day four looks an absolute pig, but there are a couple of horses that might be worth chancing.

    The time recorded by Cuis Ghaire (a massive lay for me here) at Naas wasn’t all that spectacular when marked against other races on the card, and with her likely to guarantee a strong pace I’m very keen on Penny’s Gift. She won impressively last time out, is clearly improving and will benefit from a soundly run six furlongs.

    I think I’ll be playing Bronze Cannon in the King Edward VII, as well as Spacious in the Coronation (to small stakes), but Age Of Reason is the one that really interests me today in the Queen’s Vase. Mark Johnston’s horses are in indifferent form it has to be said (most of their winners have been big prices though – always trying), but the step up to two miles looks right up his street following a pleasing effort behind Unnefer last time, and there would be few better equipped to get a horse home over a staying trip.

    #169387

    thedarkknight
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1300

    I think this has been the plan for Vortex for a long time DJ. Whether he can still produce the goods at his age I’m not sure- but like you I will be paying to find out at 50-1+.

    My main bet in the race is another rag, Prior Warning, at 50s. HE had some decent form in France last year and ran a really encouraging race last time at Newmarket – staying on over 6f. I think he is only this price because of the unfashionable trainer.

    #169391

    ClintM
    Member
    • Total Posts 246

    All The Aces interests me greatly in the Edward VII. Michael Jarvis’s colt achieved at least as much as anything in this race has, imho, when he bustled up Dr. Freemantle at Chester – yes, I’m fully aware that Bronze Cannon has beaten Dr. Freemantle. What concerns me, though, is that this race doesn’t seem to contain obvious pace and a thorough test of will only heighten his chance ( he seems to stay very well , and only he & Hebridean are proven at the distance ) again imho. Still, at 6s he’s a play for me.

    Imho, it will take something very good to lower Cuis Ghaire’s colors in the first – strong time performance at Naas and she could well be right out of the top drawer.

    I’ve narrowed the Coronation down to 5 , so I won’t be playing there.

    Good luck to all today, and have a great day if you’re going.

    #169400

    tenbob
    Member
    • Total Posts 158

    15.05
    heridean 142
    all the aces 134
    city leader 130
    campanologist 129
    moiqen 128
    bronze cannon 127
    conduit 126
    top lock 114
    winchester 109
    will back heridean to win
    small saver city leader to win
    15.45
    spacious 141
    lush lashes 137
    infallible 135
    modern look 134
    carribean sunset 121
    love of dubai 114
    raymi coya 114
    muthabara 109
    nahoodh 109
    psalm 108
    tuscan evening 107
    will back spacious to win

    #169405
    aphardy
    aphardy
    Member
    • Total Posts 195

    I think Muthabara is the filly to be on today. Looking more like a New Forest pony in the Fred darling, she looked to be going knowhere until powering through in the last furlong. There was then a doubt about her participation in the Guineas when she injured her foot in the lead up to the race, but still ran well (still with shaggy coat attached) to be beaten just over 3 lengths.

    With an uninterrupted preparation this time round, and reports of being a lot more forward in her coat (as I suspect will apply to most of those with April/early May form) I think at around 12/1, she’s good value. Stable form would have been a worry but Dunlop had a filly win here on Wednesday, so that might not be such an issue.

    I’m hoping it’s the start of a Richard Hills double with Ezdiyaad on Saturday.

    #169406
    Himself
    Himself
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3805

    A day for viewing, though Bolger’s two year old in the first may take a bit of pegging back.

    I am interested to see how Conduit runs following his bloodless victory – albeit against inferior horses at Epsom.

    Spacious should run well in the Coronation Stakes, but given James Fanshawe’s poor run of late, it’s a race I will watch, rather than bet on.

    Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning

    #169420

    MCFC Stan
    Member
    • Total Posts 378

    Think Hebridean could be the bet of the day. Though not sure what he beat last time, in terms of quality, he did it well on very fast ground and this was the obvious target for him as he’s not eligible for any of the Derbys being a gelding.
    Cuis Ghaire has by far the best form of anything in the Albany, and though that doesn’t always guarantee wins in 2 year old races with so many unexposed types, Jim Bolger does seem to do well with his homebreds, especially the Galileo ones.
    Spacious will surely come on for the run in the Guineas and unlike most of her main rivals will appreciate this kind of ground. The yard could be in better form, but as Willie Haggas said yesterday, 1 minute they are flying, the next day they aren’t, so it can work in reverse as well.
    Was quite taken by Gravitations maiden win, obviously not a race of the high standard, but she stayed on very strongly in the latter stages and her trainer isn’t one who necessarily tilts them at windmills. She could get a place at a big price.
    The 2 handicaps are tough looking affairs but Brian Meehan always thought a lot of Charlie Farnsbarns who ran a reasonable enough race last time on ground that may have been a touch too soft. A line through Pipedreamer from that race gives him an each way chance here off a handy mark.
    The last race could well resemble the other 2 cavalry charges so far this week, where the recent form book goes out the window but horses with classy form from a bit further back did well. Prince of Light was good enough to win at listed level as a 3 year old and the fact Mark Johnston has retained him suggests there could still be something left in him. He gets further than this, so that could help him if the pace is very strong and at a big price is worth a few pennies each way.

    #169446

    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 343

    I find it strange that Zaahid is still only 6lb higher than he was in March, when anti-post favourite for the Lincoln. I’m sure back then B.Hills must have thought he was more than 6lb well-in. He’s getting to like these big field, straight track, races as well. He also has a nice draw, close to the stands rail. You could say it’s foolish to back a 5/1 shot in a race like this, maybe that’s right, but I wouldn’t want to be laying Zaahid at that price.

    In the King Edward VII, I may look silly after the race, but I can not have this Conduit. It’s won a handicap off 85 in an OK time, now it’s favourite for a G2 at Royal Ascot? It may well improve, but it may need to be 30lb better than that mark to win this. Hebridean also looks a short price for what he’s achieved so far. For me, this is between Bronze Cannon and All the Aces. Before anyone tells me, I know BC has only won a handicap as well, but that was off a higher mark…and he comfortably beat some decent horses. Imo, this has the look of a Gosden/Oppenheimer 3yo laid out for Royal Ascot.

    In the Queens Vase, my choice would be Ebadiyan. It may be the favourite will be too good, but I have the feeling my pick will really apprciate the trip & hopefully the better ground, although not sure how many will enjoy it this quick.

    #169448

    Bulwark
    Member
    • Total Posts 3176

    Went for Berbice @ 40-1, Captain Jacksparra @ 40-1 and Carnivore @ 22-1. Areasonable case could be made for all three providing they can find reasonable improvement, and berbice can overcome an unfavourable draw.

    Good luck to all.

    #169449

    Bulwark
    Member
    • Total Posts 3176

    Went for Berbice @ 40-1, Captain Jacksparra @ 40-1 and Carnivore @ 22-1. Areasonable case could be made for all three providing they can find reasonable improvement, and berbice can overcome an unfavourable draw.

    Good luck to all.

    #169455
    MDeering
    MDeering
    Member
    • Total Posts 1735

    For me, this is between Bronze Cannon and All the Aces.

    And with the form link between these two having Bronze Cannon at least 1 1/2 lengths ahead – it became an easy choice.

    I poached 5/1 down here and it disappeared almost instantly. Now a pretty sad 7/2.

    #169458
    Cav
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4885

    Away from my formbook today, here are picks from a little Ascot system I’ve been messing with.

    3.05
    Conduit
    All The Aces

    3.45
    Carribean Sunset
    Spacious

    4.20
    Soapy Danger
    Halicarnassus
    Under The Rainbow

    4.55
    Captain Webb
    Pataki

    5.30
    Docofthebay
    Giganticus
    Laa Rayb
    Dhaular Dhar

    Good luck on day 4.

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