October 13, 2017 at 01:33 #1321274
- Total Posts 1420
I’m off to my first visit to Newmarket tomorrow (Friday) for an absolute belter of a card with group races galore (four) including the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile. A decent looking maiden race, a listed contest and the most valuable handicap for three year old middle distance horses of the year makes up an action packed day of racing. As I have done the necessary card study, I thought I may as well do a preview. Let’s hope for a decent day of punting.
1:50 – Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)
The day’s racing begins with a tough betting race for punters – a 5f sprint for 2 year olds. Sound and Silence will surely go off as favourite based on his wins over the majority of these in different contests this season. He is a Royal Ascot winner over this trip on fast ground and must go well. To Wafij likes the ground but has a bit to find with the favourite whilst Mokaatil rises in class. The master Aiden O’Brien has suggested that Battle of Jericho may still need the run despite running two weeks ago at Dundalk. The selection instead goes for ABEL HANDY who was only beaten half a length by the Godolphin horse but has 3lb in hand today. He has only ran four times (two wins and two seconds) and looks a likely improver and is taken to lower the colours of the well fancied favourite. Pursuing the Dream has looked like a useful type and could run the selection very close at a nice price. Sankari Royale was one of the first under pressure in a listed race at Newbury but found enough to rally for second. That form gives him an outside squeak for the places but he’s inconsistent. The sae can be said for Mrs Gallagher. Yolo Star has progressed nicely but this is a step up in class whilst Neola has underwhelmed after looking useful early this season.
2:25 – Oh So Sharp Stakes (Fillies’ Group 3)
The money coming for I Can Fly at the time of writing suggests that the Aiden O’Brien filly could be a useful type. She won her only start recently with an impressive turn of foot and will be fancied by many here. However, the step up in class makes this a tough race with proven pattern race opponents lining up. One of those is Dark Rose Angel who ran a close second in the May Hill which is good form. That line of form through Nyaleti suggests that she has the beating of GAVOTA but the latter is fancied to land this. She lost her unbeaten record last time in the Rockfel but lost her action in the Newmarket dip (she should have learnt from that) before flying home for a close third. She could be a very good filly next year. Butterscotch is the second string for O’Brien whilst Anna Nerium looks the pick of the remainder based on her fast finishing third over the shorter trip in a Salisbury Group 3.
3:00 Godolphin Challenge Stakes (Group 2)
Dabyah is a good yardstick for this 7f group 2 and will run her race. She was last seen at Royal Ascot in a quality race when in fourth. She will go well again but LIMATO (NAP) looks a class above this field. He is a top quality horse who has been unlucky this year. Impeded when getting his favoured good ground at Ascot when finishing 3rd, he then ran a good race at Goodwood to finish 4th despite the field going for home a furlong tow early. The three in front at the finish were the three at the back when entering the straight which is telling. On his favoured ground today, he looked a cracking bet yesterday when BET365 put him up at 9/4. I filled my boots at that price and he is 6/4 best price now. Cougar Mountain, Gordon Lord Byron and Gifted Master have all won races like this but are probably past their best whilst Dutch Connection has struggled this season though he does get his ground today which should help. Massaat is unknown on this ground but is a classy sort. The 2000 Guineas runner-up may prove the biggest danger to the selection in a good race.
3:35 – Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)
Group 1 action now and Aiden O Brien has sent three of his best two year old fillies over in his effort to wrap up the record for most group 1winners in a season. He has an enormous chance here. Magical beat Happily originally before the latter reversed the form in the Moyglare. Both were sent to France on Arc Day with happily beating the colts and Magical finishing an unlucky in running 4th in the Fillies race. Happily looks the better of the two. Both of them finished ahead of SEPTEMBER in their races in Ireland but the latter of the trio gets the nod. My antepost Oaks bet won the Chesham this year in great style on good ground after a rapid time when winning her maiden. Both defeats since to Happily and Magical have come on the softer surface whilst she has screamed out for wanting both a step up in trip and better ground. She gets both here and I believe we will see a far better filly because of that than the one of the previous two starts. In time, she looks a middle distance horse for next year hence my Oaks bet. On this ground though, 7/1 looks big enough for me to back her here. Magic Lily was supplemented for this after winning her debut superbly by 8 lengths over course and distance and could be a superstar in the making. Laurens deserves her crack at a group 1 after winning the May Hill last time out whilst the French raider Efaadah has been backed for this. Nyaleti may struggle with the step up in trip but has had several good efforts in group races this year. All in all, it is an absolute belter of a race.
4:10 – Old Rowley Cup (Heritage Handicap)
A very valuable heritage handicap now and a race that often delivers a few good types for the future. Torcello has progressed nicely this season and will likely go off as favourite in a notoriously difficult betting race for punters. He should go well again whilst High End lost his unbeaten tag last time but should progress again and can defy his rising handicap mark to run a big race yet again. Crowned Eagle contested the Derby this season which highlights his potential ability in the eyes of the owners whilst Humble Hero is a consistent type. He often finds one too good though which is frustrating for o connections. The same label can be put on Melting Dew who struggles to get his nose in front at the line. This was evident when beaten narrowly by Duke of Bronte last time at Ascot who reopposes today. First nation is another who just needs to find a little more in order to get the victory whereas Arab Moon has shown ability on the All Weather but needs to transfer that to grass. HERE AND NOW has been backed for this in the last few days and is an interesting runner for Ralph Beckett here. He has some very good form in the book including victory over Stradivarius in a handicap at Chester. His run last time at York was more than encouraging and he can win this.
4:45 – Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (Class 4)
A very intriguing maiden up next with the majority of runners debutants. Of those with form, VERACIOUS was a solid third on her only start in a class two conditions race. With normal improvement, she can do enough to take this. Winter Lightening is related to multiple pattern race winners including the excellent Thunder Snow whilst Final Treat ran well enough when going off favourite on his only start. Any significant money coming for the former would be noteworthy as Godolphin horses that are fancied get well backed before the race whilst those who may need a run or two often drift heavily. The market will be very telling here. John Gosden won this last year with a newcomer and has sent the 870,000 Guineas purchase Gumriyar but the market and jockey bookings suggests she will need the run. She could be useful in the future though but looks like being bred for further than today’s trip.
5:20 – Godolphin Pride Stakes (Listed)
It would be a shock if this isn’t won by any of the market principles with the main three looking superior to the rest. Natavia disappointed in the Oaks but was then absent until now which suggests something may have been amiss back then. She may need the comeback run and connections sounded unsure with what to expect today. She is perhaps best watched. Chain Of Daisies won this two years ago off the front and will give a bold showing again. Her third last time was solid enough and should have her primed for a decent showing here. She should run her race but ARCHITECTURE is surely the best in the race. The Oaks second in 2016 gave Minding a fright that day and showed plenty of promise. Her comeback run was a good on and, dropped down to listed level, she can get her career back on track with a routine victory here.
1:50 – ABEL HANDY @ 5/1
2:25 – GAVOTA @ 3/1
3:00 – LIMATO (nap) @ 9/4
3:35 – SEPTEMBER @ 7/1
4:10 – HERE AND NOW @ 12/1
4:45 – VERACIOUS @ 2/1
5:20 – ARCHITECTURE @ 13/8
Good luck all,
Keeeeeeeeeeeeep winning!October 13, 2017 at 19:35 #1321373
- Total Posts 1679
Mighty fine start to the thread, MOM. Nice work.October 13, 2017 at 23:28 #1321431
- Total Posts 942
I guess you enjoyed your first trip to Newmarket then MoM 😉 Great writeup, nice when the study pays offOctober 14, 2017 at 00:27 #1321438
- Total Posts 1420
I guess you enjoyed your first trip to Newmarket then MoM 😉 Great writeup, nice when the study pays off
Cracking day out
Nice to find some winners and come out at the end of the day in nice profitOctober 14, 2017 at 01:09 #1321456
- Total Posts 6410
Nice preview of the card MOM
Did you get to the pre parade today? I thought all the O’Brien fillies today looked a little tired and lack lustre, like to see fillies a little on their toes. It’s been a long season.
September was the best of all the O’Brien runners and extremely unlucky not to have won just another stride and she was there. Veracious was outstanding I backed her too and Winter Lightning will improve for the run she looked as though she needed the race.
Keep up the good work JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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