June 6, 2018 at 17:56 #1356263
I took 6/1 with Corals last week and I see that he’s still 5s with SkyBet and William Hill.
The Galileo colt looks the bet of the week at this price. He’s only seen the racecourse 3 times and has improved for each outing culminating in a Listed level win at Navan over a furlong shorter than this last time out.
He looks to be Ballydoyle’s number one and he should relish everything about this.June 10, 2018 at 20:40 #1356584
I have Southern France as the Lay of the meeting. I felt he won a very weak Listed race last time out and his OR of 97 after three starts seems low to me considering he’s a hot favourite at 4/1 and lower now.
He prevailed by half a length last time out and even if he never looked like getting caught, it wasn’t the sort of performance that would warrant his current odds in my opinion.
O’Brien’s stayers look a poor bunch this year. Saxon Warrior was supposed to be his best but even he could not place in the Derby and the others looked as slow as punts without a pole.
All four runs from Southern France’s Listed win have resulted in unplaced, thrashed, efforts. Particularly worrying would be the 4th placed National Security, going on be third in a Navan maiden, beaten 8 lengths.
Obviously, Southern France may improve a good bit but I feel he will need to and the bare form at the moment looks way off warranting the odds he is.
I thought Dermot Weld’s Bandua was much better value at five times the odds and NRNB.
The colt is 2/2 after landing two Cork races on testing ground. His 103 Racing Post rating is five lbs higher than Southern France on 98 and he’s very unexposed. Bandua was entered in the Belmont Stakes up until the final Decs and he also holds an Irish Derby entry.
Bandua is also in the King Edward VII later in the week but the Queen’s Vase looks a more realistic target at this stage.
Bandua and Southern France are tied pretty close through Whirling Dervish who ran behind both colts. Bandua gave that form guide 7 lbs, whereas Southern France met him off levels. The big factor is that the extra trip could bring greater improvement from the Weld horse.
I just feel that with NRNB and 20/1 I am getting much better value than the 4/1 on the warm fav. Hard to imagine a Weld runner going off 20/1 if he lines up and I felt an each-way was in order. If he goes elsewhere it’s money on something else.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 12, 2018 at 13:46 #1356669
- Total Posts 673
Stats up to 2017 (not including Stradivarius)
12/14 – Had never raced at Ascot before
10/14 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
10/14 – Placed last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
6/14 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Trained by Mark Johnston
5/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/14 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 4 times in all)
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 5 of the last 11 runnings (3 wins)
10 of the last 11 winners came from a single-figure stall
5 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 7 or 8
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11/2June 14, 2018 at 09:58 #1356813
- Total Posts 4530
SOUTHERN FRANCE for me to he races very lazy he does he hiding abilty well there is more to come from him.June 14, 2018 at 14:24 #1356832
Southern France into a general 5/2 favourite now.
3/1 is still available with William Hill & Betfred.
Aidan O’Brien has indicated that Nelson is likely to join Southern France here and he’s a best priced 10/1 but the lively surface would be a worry for me and I suspect Ryan Moore will be on Frenchy.June 14, 2018 at 21:58 #1356860
- Total Posts 903
I am on Nelson here….willing to forgive the last run.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!June 15, 2018 at 21:16 #1356929
- Total Posts 568
Nelson e/w here. Good ground & a trip looks like suiting here Considering his nice form last season over a mile.
Liked Gosden’s Stream Of Stars also but he’s too short now, FWIW.June 16, 2018 at 14:52 #1357066
Bandua swerves this race but it was NRNB, so no harm done.
I just can’t have Southern France here. He is priced as if he is already this class, when he is only rated 95 on official figures. He has potential of course, but the odds suggest he is 20 lbs higher than he actually is thus far.
Nelson is my St Leger horse but was disappointing last time. I am undecided as to whether he needs soft ground at this trip but his best performance last year came on testing ground. I feel that the 1m 2f of the Derrinstown on good ground was a totally insufficient test of stamina and he always looked like he was working too hard to maintain the lead and once joined he had no more to offer in response to the closers. Hazapour did best of those who went on to the Derby but he clearly didn’t stay and is being dropped back to 10F now.
In retrospect, Nelson may have been a St Leger type, running against a high class 10F horse in the Derrinstown, so it wouldn’t be a shocker to see the faster horse prevail at HIS trip, on HIS ground. The extra half mile of the Vase should allow Nelson to travel more comfortably against pretty much slower horses than he has been facing and I feel he’s an excellent e/w at more than twice the odds of the horse who has 16 lbs to find with him on ratings. I’ll be playing win only though.
I have Southern France as my lay of the meeting and not only is his rating a bit shy of what I would want at the odds, he didn’t visually impress me either. The final nail is the form of his two wins. 13 runs since, 1 placed and 12 unplaced. My overall impression is that Southern France would have been a better candidate when the Vase was over 2 miles.
I’m sorry to sound so negative but I just don’t see the odds against horses who may have limitations but have achieved a lot more. Best of luck though.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 16, 2018 at 15:05 #1357067
I forgot to say that Nelson’s run behind Roaring Lion in last year’s Royal Lodge is arguably the best looking piece of form on show in the Queen’s Vase.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 17, 2018 at 14:32 #1357139
I’m with you now Steve.
5/2 about Southern France is too short on what he’s actually done, but I’m happily on at 6/1 and he’ll be a good result. Would I back him at his current price? No. But the value was there to be taken earlier in the week.June 18, 2018 at 15:18 #1357207
New favourite is Kew Gardens because Ryan Moore is on board him, with Heffernan on Southern France.
Donnacha is on Nelson and he’s 5/1 in a tight go for second Fav now.
I reckon Kew Gardens is an awful price now at 5/2, having been 8/1 just 4 days ago.
I would imagine that Ryan has gone for him because his best run was probably the Zetland stakes on a fast surface. Kew Gardens was last seen doing a damn good impression of the Kon Tiki in the Derby. I can’t touch him at 5/2.
Stream Of Stars is grossly underpriced at 4/1. A maiden winner, rated 91 on RPR’s, the form of his race has been from horses running in maidens or in handicaps off marks in the 80’s. The third home Corgi, won a handicap by a length as 11/4 Fav from a mark of 85. Runner up to Stream The Stars bombed out totally off 85 in a staying handicap next time for Michael Stoute.
Stream Of Stars needs a big improvement and has scope, but by god he needs it and with established horses at albeit not a stellar level and with another similar type to himself in Southern France, 4/1? really?
Happy enough with Nelson at 8/1 and a query on the ground, rather than 5/2 Kew Gardens
I would expect Southern France to be a drifter tomorrow and I’d be a layer of Stream Of Stars, who would be huge if trained by a lesser light.
Crazy Odds Man
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.June 18, 2018 at 16:39 #1357214
- Total Posts 3483
I am on Kew Gardens at 8/1 Steve but am not at all confident.
Drapers Guild at 20/1 could be a big price having only got beat half a length by SF and Kings Proctor at 25/1 looks huge to me with MJ’s form in this race!!June 20, 2018 at 03:00 #1357460
- Total Posts 2001
From my preview:
‘3:05 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2)
Stradivarius won this last year before going onto bigger things and is expected to run a huge race in Thursday’s Gold Cup. Effectively, it is a trial for the St Leger with so many an unknown over this trip. Stream In Stars broke his maiden here last month with a good performance but will need to improve again against some hardy group level performers for Aiden O’Brien. His battalion of Nelson, Southern France and KEW GARDENS (11/4) is going to prove tough to beat with the former showing top class form at his best. Southern France clearly has more to come after a couple of comfortable wins but his lack of experience is against him for a gruelling race of this nature. O’Brien has stated his concerns in that department and stable jockey Ryan Moore clearly agrees as he’s chosen Kew Gardens. The current market leader ran his best race when getting good ground and a decent gallop which he will get here and the dour stayer of the race could grind them down here. It’s a very hard race to call but I will side with the experienced, but somewhat paceless, type to get the win in this group two contest. I have also had an each way play here on ALMOGHARED (16/1 e/w 4 places) who finished his race off in tremendous style last time. He has a similar profile to both Southern France and Stream of Stars and yet is four times the price. With Skybet paying four places, I made him a value each way bet. After what happened with Accidental Agent yesterday, I will definitely be following my own advice this time.’June 20, 2018 at 09:28 #1357481
Added Sovereign Duke e/w at 40/1 to go with Southern France at 6/1.June 20, 2018 at 14:22 #1357558
- Total Posts 24419
Am another on Nelson, if equally effective on this ground (which is a bit of an if) he’ll win this. As others have said – always looked a thorough stayer. I wonder in a lesser Group race at Royal Ascot whether Dad wants his son to have a Royal Ascot winner. Does Ryan Moore always have the choice? If so am surprised he’s gone for Kew Gardens.
Stream Of Stars may look a poor price on what he’s done, but won with plenty in hand and the proverbial “could be anything”. Yes, he might be outclassed, but also could make masses of improvement. Which way he goes in the market will tell a lot. Of course he would be a bigger price trained by anyone else; but he’s not – he’s trained by Gosden who is in fantastic form, has quite a lot of staying bred animals to choose from, won last year’s race with Stradivarius and this is their first string. In that situation it’s difficult if not impossible to tell if Stream Of Stars is value or not. I wouldn’t make him a main bet for that very reason – just take such an unexposed horse out of the eqation by a saver bet.
At a bigger price have played Mark Johnston’s Lynwood Gold, another trainer with plenty of good staying bred horses to choose from and with a good record in this race. Third in a Class 2 handicap under a big weight and suited by this trip. Prominent position might also pay. 20/1 was too big to ignore.value is everything
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