Profiting from flat racing

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This topic contains 47 replies, has 8 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 1 day, 14 hours ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 31 through 45 (of 48 total)
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  • #1342237
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
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    • Total Posts 39

    Ginge,

    You have a good staking plan imo and it obviously works for you. Value is obviously a really important aspect of successful punting and the likes of Veitch, Nevison and every other man and his dog has written about it. The thing that gets me with it is where is the balance between picking a good percentage of winners and finding value, we’re only human and although value can slap you in the face like a wet fish who are we to be pinpoint accurate in our estimations of a horses’s chance when we don’t have all the facts? Being out a few points here and there can make a huge difference in the long run imo! What Benter and Woods were doing out in HK is interesting, basically taking into consideration every single factor that they thought of interest and throwing it into a computer to let it spit out numbers and percentage chances. Bit of a ramble now so gunna have a cup of tea hahahaha!

    Ginge, can I ask what your ROI is or whatever stats you know regarding your betting? And you too nwalt?

    Although Dave Nevison definitely has a sharp brain I certainly think it helped him starting with 50k and having a big set of balls with regards to his staking! Some people hanging about on this forum might’ve been millionaires by now if they had a fat stake like that to begin with B-)

    Cheers

    Sass

    #1342273
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
    Participant
    • Total Posts 39

    Alright chaps,

    What I think I was getting at was that value is important and the tissue that goes with it but if you can’t pick medium and longshot winners then it doesn’t amount to anything. Just because a tissue has been created and we have our own prices it doesn’t mean that they’re always accurate, due to many factors, and we may not be getting the value we think we’re getting.

    Anyhuuuuu, does anyone else have good staking ideas similar to gingers? Do you use Kelly or perhaps something a lot braver?

    Thanks in advance

    Sassoon

    #1342275
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
    Participant
    • Total Posts 474

    If you’re not good at working out what’s value then you won’t win money, if you are then you will (long term with large sample size), this means if you want to make the game pay then you have to trust your gut and gamble on yourself, not just the horses, gamble on yourself being right, gamble on your intuition and ability to read a race.

    I also find that some of the time people are better at betting on certain types of races than others so it may be no harm at all if you can’t pick out a big priced winner if you just so happen to be good at picking out evens shot winners – and visa versa

    Oh and your question regarding the importance of jockey – I don’t pay too much attention to it in lower grade handicaps (aw or turf) because at most only half the field are trying so the horse that wins has usually been ‘plotted’ to some extent, also trainers often like to put a random/not top class jockey on their horse if they’re expecting a big run in these races because booking a ‘better’ jockey can cause the bookies to be wary and not offer a decent price on the horse. I pay a relative amount of attention to jockey booking in listed/group races because you need one who can judge pace correctly and know when to strike to the front, however the best horse (or one most suited to that days conditions) often wins these races so jockey isn’t the be all and end all, if I like a horse in a listed/group race then as long as it’s got a half decent jockey on board I’ll back it.
    I pay most attention to jockey booking in big field handicaps (and very rarely will I back a horse in one with just an average jockey) because you need one who will anticipate where/when the gaps will appear – it is also a big indicator that the trainer is expecting a big run from the horse, especially if it has had average jockeys on board for previous runs.

    • This reply was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Ben_Bernanke Ben_Bernanke.
    • This reply was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Ben_Bernanke Ben_Bernanke.
    • This reply was modified 1 week, 3 days ago by Ben_Bernanke Ben_Bernanke.
    #1342284
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 22846

    Ginge,

    You have a good staking plan imo and it obviously works for you. Value is obviously a really important aspect of successful punting and the likes of Veitch, Nevison and every other man and his dog has written about it. The thing that gets me with it is where is the balance between picking a good percentage of winners and finding value, we’re only human and although value can slap you in the face like a wet fish who are we to be pinpoint accurate in our estimations of a horses’s chance when we don’t have all the facts? Being out a few points here and there can make a huge difference in the long run imo! What Benter and Woods were doing out in HK is interesting, basically taking into consideration every single factor that they thought of interest and throwing it into a computer to let it spit out numbers and percentage chances. Bit of a ramble now so gunna have a cup of tea hahahaha!

    Ginge, can I ask what your ROI is or whatever stats you know regarding your betting? And you too nwalt?

    Although Dave Nevison definitely has a sharp brain I certainly think it helped him starting with 50k and having a big set of balls with regards to his staking! Some people hanging about on this forum might’ve been millionaires by now if they had a fat stake like that to begin with B-)

    Cheers

    Sass

    Alright chaps,

    What I think I was getting at was that value is important and the tissue that goes with it but if you can’t pick medium and longshot winners then it doesn’t amount to anything. Just because a tissue has been created and we have our own prices it doesn’t mean that they’re always accurate, due to many factors, and we may not be getting the value we think we’re getting.

    Thanks in advance

    Sassoon

    Sass,
    You ask “where is the balance between picking a good percentage of winners and finding value, we’re only human and although value can slap you in the face like a wet fish who are we to be pinpoint accurate in our estimations of a horses’s chance when we don’t have all the facts”?

    Long term the balance between picking a good percentage of winners and finding value” is inbuilt.
    eg
    If a punter has a strike rate of 7% and his average winner is 25/1, then 7% is a bloody “good percentage of winners”.
    Just as 20% would be a good percentage of winners if a punter’s average priced winner is 6/1; or 50% at an average price of 6/4 etc (short priced horses can be “value” too).

    It could be said that if a punter does not make a long term profit then he/she has not achieved value, but that is a little too simplistic. A punter knows he has got long term value only if his/her average priced winner (every winning price converted in to a percentage and then all added up before dividing by the number of winners)… is a bigger figure than his/her strike rate.

    We don’t need “all the facts” to produce a good enough book, making a book is about probabilities – not facts. We don’t need to be “pinpoint accurate”. What all the horses chances are is only opinion. Long term – any individual punter’s opinions/assessments only need to be more accurate than bookmakers odds-compilers and/or those punters on exchanges.

    imo Computers can not judge value accurately, because value is always subjective. One aspect of form could make up a massive part of one horse’s chance and yet be far less important in another’s. eg Temperament can make up a massive part of a “dog”‘s chance, where as for another runner temperament has very little say in its chance. etc.

    value is everything
    #1342307
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
    Participant
    • Total Posts 39

    Thanks chaps,

    Excellent posts from both of you!! See where you’re coming from Ginge, very helpful mate 😉

    Another question – do you make use of speed ratings whether they be your own or interpreting another’s? And what is your view on weight and the old 2.5lbs per length over 6f etc? Obviously Nick Mordin had some good views in this area and I tend apply that rough method with my selections but on the other hand DL Priest wrote that the effect of weight in general was overestimated by the official handicapper by at least 2 but up to 4 times!!

    all the best

    Sass

    #1342312
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 474

    Good question Sasson, I know it was targeted at Ginge but if you don’t mind I’ll chuck my 2 pence in because there’s no one dodgy to watch on the cameras at work currently (security not professional stalker!) so I have nothing better to do!! always thought it odd that a horse weighing as much as they do can be affected so much by a couple of lbs, I mean put 2lbs on my back and I can’t imagine I’d run 200m any slower than I could without it (not that I’m some athlete or anything). I think some of it comes down to the horse actually being fit, say it comes last off a mark of 63 but then gets dropped to 60 and wins it’s next handicap race it’s very unlikely the 3lbs has had that much of an effect, rather that the horse wasn’t fit when running off 63 but was 100% wound up for its race when running off 60.

    #1342314
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
    Participant
    • Total Posts 39

    Hey Benj,

    Good points and I was thinking along the same lines the other day mate. Do you factor weight into your betting at all then and if so how? Just a general overview and application like if you had two horses and you thought that the handicapper had it pretty bang on and you thought they would finish close to each other but one had a small weight pull then you’d give it preference etc?

    There’s no denying there’s a detrimental effect but not sure how much relevance I’ll be giving it for my speed figures this coming season on ze flat.

    Cheers,

    Sassy

    #1342319
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 474

    I’d say if I thought the handicapper had it prettt bang on with 2 horses then I’d probably just not bet on the race or ignore the weight difference and pay stronger attention to other factors such as the going or the which horse will be best suited to the likely pace of the race etc. I’d say I pay more attention to a horses mark than the weight it’s csrrying for the reasons we’re alluding to – a couple of lbs can’t make that much difference whereas a horse being on a good mark means the horse is more likely than before to be 100% wound up for the race, half the work in handicaps is figuring out which horses are actually going to be trying. If a race is won by a nose or short head then yeah 1 or 2lbs may have well made the difference, but the majority of races are won by a bigger margin than this.

    #1342322
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
    Participant
    • Total Posts 39

    Ben,

    And for your going do you pay attention to the going stick mainly or do you have other methods? And do you assign notes for the pace of a race like ginge as in fast then slow, slow fast, average slow etc? With experience I guess this comes naturally and it becomes more of an art.

    Also, what methods do you use to find out who you think is ‘trying’?

    Regards,

    SAS

    #1342345
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
    Participant
    • Total Posts 39

    With regards to pace I’ve been looking at getting rough times through different stages of different races and then giving them a rough comparison so I know which courses require more getting over 7 furlongs or which have slight downhill finishes etc. If anyone has a list of courses and observations they’ve made regarding pace, or draw or even just the layout of the tracks then that’d be great to share?

    Like ginge said good horses can run bad times if conditions aren’t right and I’m looking to reduce variables a bit. For instance I might take the 4f times at Leicester and Nottingham and see what correlation they have so consequently when their trainers send them over to the other track you then have a rough idea of how they’ll perform. This alongside rough par times for the race and roughly where the horses are gunna be at different junctures of the race is definitely useful information; very American in it’s thinking and it’s individual in how you take and interpret the times but at this stage of my journey I’m thinking that pace is more important than 99 percent of other factors and there’s money to be made there.

    Realise I’ve waffled on a bit but think you’ll get my point and all views would be welcome please?

    Cheers ladies and gents,

    Sassoon

    #1342356

    nwalton
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1198

    not sure whether this is what you want mate, but go to timeform.com and down the right hand side, you will see racecourse guides, this will give you how fair insight on the layout of the courses in UK

    #1342390
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    • Total Posts 22846

    Another question – do you make use of speed ratings whether they be your own or interpreting another’s?

    Horse Racing times fascinated me right from the start of my interest in betting on horses in the early/mid 1980’s, Sass. In my middle teens keeping the results section of the Sporting Life Weekender and paying particular attention to “Stopwatch Speed Ratings”. With these speed ratings having quite a big part in my first thinking processes, thought I’d found what we now call “an edge”. Put £200 in to an account with a local bookmaker. First couple of bets I phoned through were Commanche Run in the 1984 St Leger and Prince Sabo in the Scarborough Stakes – both won! Thought I knew it all and took me just a month to lose the lot! :wacko:

    Anyway, I cut back heavily after that, just an occasional fair sized ante-post bet. One of the first being £50 Oh So Sharp @ 5/2 for the 1985 1000 Guineas. Watching the race now still can’t believe she won, just getting up in a three way photo! My next bet, £25 each way @ 16/1 Slip Anchor in the Derby. Day or two after placing the bet he strolled away with the Lingfield Derby Trial and (starting the 9/4 fav) did the same at Epsom.

    With some of the winnings bought my first Timeform book. Didn’t know anything at all about the company, just the name “Time” and “Form” appealed. Reading their analysis soon became evident I had a lot to learn. Although not all about time Timeform was much more accurate than the old Stopwatch stuff and been a subscriber ever since. Now subscribe to Timeform Race Passes.

    Love to do my own thorough time analysis from start to finish, but tbh seems to me one person would not have enough time if he/she worked at it 24 hours a day to do it half as well as Timeform.

    I think the edge for time enthusiasts is no longer with Speed Ratings as such – ie not about rating each horse on their (start to finish) times. Races can be run so many different ways and the only way a horse can produce their optimum time is to run all the furlongs in equal fractions. It’s often thought if early fractions are fast the time will be fast. Wrong! ie If the early and/or mid fractions are too fast then with horses out on their feet the final fraction is extremely slow and therefore overall time is slowish too. In reality, most races are not run in equal (optimum) fractions. Also, even if a race has been run in equal fractions, that particular form will only be reproduced if the race you’re working out is also run in equal fractions… And if a horse with a lesser Speed Rating is yet to run in equal fractions it will in all probability improve its Speed Rating – possibly beating the top rated.

    Official going report of “Good-firm” can be an accurate assessment, or it could be real firm or real good or occasionally good-soft or hard… And even if Good-firm is correct it can be towards the good end of good-firm or towards the firmer end… And if that’s not allowed for any Speed Rating given to the performance will be inaccurate. To use official going reports to produce speed ratings is imo impossible.

    Although overall times of a meeting can in themselves be used in order to produce your own going report; in reality a meeting can often have no truly run races. This skews the observer in to thinking the going was softer than it actually was… UNLESS you’ve also got sectional times at hand that identify slowly run races and allow for it in going assessments.

    imo If creating Speed Ratings it is necessary to make allowances for slower sectionals by adding to the rating… And unless someone or an organisation is ultra experienced in doing so (eg Timeform) that’s extremely difficult.

    Although there is quite a bit of individual analysis I do, my edge is probably more to do with being good at interpreting Timeform analysis in to chance. Individuals can identify horses who could be suited to how a particular race is likely to be run – but for a punter to actually produce Speed Ratings him/herself accurate enough to be worthwile… is asking the earth. Although one that seems to know his stuff on this subject is theracingforum’s The Blues Brother.

    value is everything
    #1342418
    Ben_Bernanke
    Ben_Bernanke
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    • Total Posts 474

    Ben,
    And for your going do you pay attention to the going stick mainly or do you have other methods? And do you assign notes for the pace of a race like ginge as in fast then slow, slow fast, average slow etc? With experience I guess this comes naturally and it becomes more of an art.
    Also, what methods do you use to find out who you think is ‘trying’?
    Regards,
    SAS

    For the going I use the racing post formbook description but know that sometimes the official description is a bit off so I make my own interpretation when watching previous races, for example if the formbook says ‘soft’ but I watch a replay of the race and to my eye it’s heavy then in my mind it’s heavy and the soft is just wrong – like I was saying in a previous post you have to trust your gut in this game.

    I don’t assign notes no when it comes to pace, but I’ll always look at the times of a race and again trust my eye when watching replays as the pace of a race is often inconsistent (by that I mean it’s not run the same pace throughout). I’ll use the formbook and see which horses like to front run and which like to be held up and make a judgement as to what the pace is most likely to be from that. I probably should make notes of these sorts of things because it’d make things easier.

    To find out who is trying I’ll look at trainer form, if trainer is what I’d consider to be out of form then it’s more likely than not that the horse is not ‘ready to go’, I’ll look at (and continue to look at right up til the off) the odds on betfair exchange compared to the general bookies price (if a horse is 4/1 with the books but 10s on betfair then it’s got no chance lol). When it comes to looking at replays of previous runs then you get to know which horses are trying and which aren’t (this is most common in lower grade handicaps) just purely by watching a lot of races. Horses getting held up and asked for a challenge too late could be an indicator, or going wide all the way round, or the horse being allowed to run to freely, or even the jockey taking a massive hold when it looks like the horse should be allowed to go on and do its thing – but again this is all hard to explain as in a lot of cases these occurrences are genuine so it just comes down to watching lots of races!

    #1342496
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
    Participant
    • Total Posts 39

    Alright chaps,

    Great posts. Yeah definitely watching races is very important and looking at the type of trip a horse got throughout a race and where you think it should be exerted and where it shouldn’t. Do you find yourself getting a feel for certain horses at certain tracks and vice versa and it all somehow seems to come into place a lot of the time?

    Ginge, why do you enjoy Timeform so much? I would agree that they’re excellent at what they do and take into account a lot of different factors but I aim to be just as creative. Overall I feel that occasionally ‘official’ times are out (have you experienced this or do you know them to be bang on every time due to electronic timing?), the effect of wind is underestimated, not enough attention is paid to the draw on good/firm ground and the effect of weight figures too much; this can apply to their ratings and some ratings others produce. Ginge, if you could address some of those points so I know your thoughts then that’d be great!

    Thanks a lot, Sassoon

    #1342728
    Sassoon1990
    Sassoon1990
    Participant
    • Total Posts 39

    Anyone else got any thoughts or can contribute on pace, speed and weight matters? Or y’all too busy watching the jumps. 😛

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